BajaNomad - Tropical Storm Warning for BCS for Hurricane Norbert

Tropical Storm Warning for BCS for Hurricane Norbert

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bajajudy - 9-2-2014 at 02:00 PM

TS Norbert seems to be content to stay a storm...no one is predicting hurricane status.

wed morning-

So much for that. Looks like Norbert will be a problem here.

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by bajajudy]

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by bajajudy]

mtgoat666 - 9-2-2014 at 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
TS Norbert seems to be content to stay a storm...no one is predicting hurricane status.

i usually read the forecast discussion and avoid the graphics. the NWS NHC discussion yesterday said the current models are not reliable, and reading between the lines they basically say "stay tuned, we dont know how this storm will develop."

the 2 pm today discussion said: "Except for moderate northeasterly shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance is a bit higher than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a hurricane."

still a chance it may turn northward, probably wont know that until thursday. if the highover mexico decreases later this week, could see it turn north into penninsula....

anywho, the hurricane force winds should kick up some good surf for the north county san diego and OC crowd that is carpetbagging down south, squabbling over breaks, introducing their negativity to the peace and love vibes of lore

StuckSucks - 9-2-2014 at 03:06 PM

Bill Collector - 9-2-2014 at 04:19 PM

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja
California sur from La Paz southward around the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula northward to S

bajajudy - 9-2-2014 at 08:06 PM

So much for no hurricane

Katiejay99 - 9-2-2014 at 08:30 PM

Watch out - he may just head right up the SOC.

Edited to change gender (but they are all finicky)

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Katiejay99]

alacran - 9-2-2014 at 09:48 PM

So we have Norbert again, it was around baja a few years back. At that time it wasno big thing, hope it stays the same this ime around.

Katiejay99 - 9-3-2014 at 05:28 AM

List of things to get done early today:
Put up Hurricane shields
Get dog food
Get people food
gas up vehicles
get batteries
fill my garrafones (water containers)
Charge my phones

This ones gonna knock us here in Todos Santos around a little bit. The ground is already saturated from excessive rain on Monday.
I'll report as I can.

shari - 9-3-2014 at 06:48 AM

Good idea Katiejay....all of you down south...please be safe and prepared especially for flooding. I had a bad feeling September would be an a$$ kicker.

Please keep reporting on weather as long as you can before your power goes out so those north of you have an idea what is coming.

We had a long discussion with Tomas who is the new director of the Proteccion Civil here in Asuncion about the need to keep lookey loos and daring do's away from the big waves at the beach and here at the blowhole. It only takes one bigger wave to drag people out or bash them on the rocks.

Katiejay99 - 9-3-2014 at 08:49 AM

I will keep reporting either by my computer or my smartphone (I can keep it charged in my truck). Unless the cell towers go down, I'll report. I just looked at NHC and eebmike and YIKES!

The storm that hit on Monday I noticed that as soon as it passed a whole bunch of people showed up on the beach. I asked a friend of mine why and he said it was the fishermen handlining and that right after a storm was the best time to catch fish from the shore.

Everyone keep safe.

vandenberg - 9-3-2014 at 08:55 AM

GFDL predictions have over the years come closest.

If they are correct Asuncion may be in for a doozy :?:

shari - 9-3-2014 at 09:00 AM

often when the predictions say it is headed here...the dang thing gets sucked over to the gulf side and has it's way with Mulege...so be prepared for flooding all. As mentioned much of baja is already saturated so flooding will be worse. If we do get rain and another big swell, the new highway at the entrance to Asuncion will flood and more of the town sand bank will get eroded away.

looks like a problem for this weekend's fishing tournament here! By the way, the yellowtail bit is voracious right now

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 09:15 AM

Overcast, no wind
Hot and humid
Getting our storm shutters up, gassing up, beering up, fooding up, watering up, lashing down
Already checked the generator

Norbert took a little jog to the west which makes the track a little better for us...
Hopefully for all of us!

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
often when the predictions say it is headed here...the dang thing gets sucked over to the gulf side and has it's way with Mulege...so be prepared for flooding all.

...yes that's my concern as well...some projection models I've seen show that as a possibility but one can 'almost' be sure at this point that Mulege will receive significant precipitation.

.

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by micah202]

Mulegena - 9-3-2014 at 09:20 AM

Oh, where's hell's fire when ya' need it? Dry up this thing!

Stay safe, Everybody.
Have a plan and work it -- ahead of time, which would be now.

mtgoat666 - 9-3-2014 at 09:25 AM

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031444
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

Norbert has become significantly better organized this morning.
The central dense overcast has become more symmetric with more
prominent banding around the center. Microwave images also show
that the inner core is becoming better defined, with the likely
first stages of a primitive eye. The initial wind speed is set to
55 kt, at the top end of the subjective Dvorak estimates, although
the latest objective numbers are higher. With the improvement in
the inner core, light-to-moderate shear, and very warm waters,
future strengthening seems quite likely. In fact, rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI
showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in the next 24 hours. Considering the environmental factors and the low bias of the deterministic guidance so far, the new NHC intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one, about 5 kt above the highest guidance through 48 hours. After that time, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to weaken the cyclone. The NHC forecast is blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus at long range.

With recent microwave and visible imagery, it appears that Norbert has been moving westward over the past few hours. However, a more representative long-term motion is 295/8. Mid-level ridging is expected to weaken later today over northwestern Mexico, which should cause Norbert to turn more to the northwest. While all of the reliable guidance keeps the center of the storm offshore of Baja California Sur, Norbert should come close enough to bring tropical-storm-force winds to the state. The models have shifted somewhat
southward since the last cycle, and with the recent westward motion, it makes sense to adjust the NHC forecast a little farther south for the first day or so. There hasn't been much change to the guidance beyond day 3, so the new forecast is basically an update to the previous one.

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP14/refresh/EP1414W5_NL+gif/151130W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 09:52 AM

...something of a 'read' on Norbert from a reliable california based sort...warns to boat owners (and doctors) in Ensenada

The NHC has been well behind the curve with Tropical Storm Norbert. At first the models were forecasting a Tropical Storm through day five. Curious given the moderate shear and very warm SSTs. Now the shear is relaxing, 29'C SSTs are available to the system and rapid intensification should occur. Category 5 Hurricane Marie was also underdone on the forecast consistently and IMHO the same will be true of Norbert. Norbert should become a hurricane very shortly and based on what I see should become yet another major hurricane by tomorrow as it scrapes by Cabo and heads generally parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Much warmer than normal SSTs are the rule along the path until about half way up the Mexican coastline but by that time Norbert may very well have intensified to a point where he impacts for Southern California early next week. IS it finally time for the long overdue tropical wash down we have been talking about since May? I don't know but the models are a mess and in my estimation unreliable beginning over the weekend. If you have a boat in Ensenada this one is worth watching. Further up the coast the chances are more remote that a true tropical cyclone will impact us here in SOCAL but we'll have to see what Norbert decodes to do as we get to the weekend.

TS Norbert Reports

Katiejay99 - 9-3-2014 at 10:35 AM

I thought it would be a good idea to have a special topic just for our reports.

It is overcast with a light breeze in Todos Santos today.

Howard - 9-3-2014 at 10:58 AM

Same from Loreto

92 degrees in the shade with the wind picking up a little bit.

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Howard]

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Howard]

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 11:01 AM

Sun is out. Wish I had done a load of clothes!
My guy is here putting up the storm shutters on our office and store.
No wind, 85 on the porch.

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 11:27 AM

.
..here come the laundry reports!

..if you time things just right judy,,,perhaps Shari will find your stuff on -her- line!

...good luck,,,and careful preparation everyone

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by micah202]

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202
.
..here come the laundry reports!

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by micah202]

I knew someone would appreciate that! :saint:

Shutters half done. Supposed to have +\- 38 mph gusts tonight with rain.

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202
.
..here come the laundry reports!

I knew someone would appreciate that! :saint:

Shutters half done. Supposed to have +\- 38 mph gusts tonight with rain.

....be careful--the forecasts have been amping-up a fair bit

.

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 12:04 PM

...from.... http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-norbert-paci...

Norbert should intensify to a hurricane soon. In fact, the National Hurricane Center says rapid intensification, defined as an increase in maximum sustained winds of at least 30 knots in 24 hours is a 1-in-3 possibility, according to one hurricane intensity forecast model.

Unlike the most recent trio of Karina, Lowell, and Marie, Norbert will not simply be an "out-to-sea" wave generator.

While Norbert's center is unlike to make landfall, it is expected to creep very slowly to the northwest over the next several days, passing close enough to parts of Mexico's Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf, rip currents, gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

For this reason, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas.

Tropical storm-force winds are possible in the warning area by Thursday afternoon. At this time, the center of Norbert is expected to make its closest pass to the Baja Peninsula from Thursday afternoon into Friday.

At this time, we can't rule out hurricane-force conditions if the center passes closer to the southern Baja. Hurricane watches (issued by the Mexican government) may have to be issued.

.

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 12:07 PM

Oh we are ready.
And I watch all the sites like a hawk.
Will be tuned in for the 3:00 update
The noon update says Norbert is still moving west.

mulegemichael - 9-3-2014 at 12:14 PM

like a dumbo, in our last couple of storms, i forgot to open the sliding glass doors to our casa and they blew out everytime with the volume of water inside the casa trying to get out...this time they will be wide open as soon as the house is emptied of everything so the river can come and go as it pleases....just a little tip for those of us/you living on a flood plain that have never been through a grand wetness!

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy

The noon update says Norbert is still moving west.

...lets hope it likes going west........maybe everyone turn on your fans,,,

..........I always get confused how the 'westcoast' is the east-pacific :?:

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by micah202]

vandenberg - 9-3-2014 at 01:05 PM

GFDL which has usually the best and most accurate predictions, shows the storm going directly over the peninsula.

Norbert.gif - 28kB

shari - 9-3-2014 at 01:12 PM

that wouldnt surprise me at all as the hurricanes that are close to the peninsula often get sucked over to warmer water..look out Lopez Mateos area and Mulege...tick tick tick

blackwolfmt - 9-3-2014 at 01:24 PM

Good luck folks, well we watching the radar from up here in Mt

http://http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by blackwolfmt]

woody with a view - 9-3-2014 at 01:45 PM

I like this model for accuracy. within 84 hours it is usually right on. looks like fun this weekend!

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

Katiejay99 - 9-3-2014 at 02:14 PM

And the thunder and lightening begins.
We have some wind but not much. It is dark south and towards the mountains (east). The rain should hit us quite soon.

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Katiejay99]

Bill Collector - 9-3-2014 at 02:26 PM

We are getting white caps out of the east, wind is picking up. All the hotels have pulled their boats out of the water.

Mula - 9-3-2014 at 02:48 PM

Calm before the storm in Lopez.

The locals here in Lopez are still watching.
Everyone was ready to go shrimping Sunday.
Shrimp season opens here then.

shari - 9-3-2014 at 03:11 PM

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite images indicate that Norbert is still on an intensification trend. While no eye is apparent in visible imagery, recent microwave imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form. The cyclone has a long curved band around the southern and western semicircle wrapping into the small central dense overcast. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives 60 kt as the initial wind speed.

It is hard to find a reason why Norbert will not significantly intensify during the next day or so since it will remain over very warm waters, the shear does not appear to be that detrimental, and it already has many features of an inner core. Yet the best model guidance is lower than 6 hours ago, with no forecast above 80 kt for a peak intensity. With so many favorable environmental factors and the low model bias observed this season (and this cyclone), the new NHC forecast will stay close to the previous one. Weakening should begin in a few days when Norbert moves over cooler waters and into the more stable atmosphere of the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean.

After a brief westward track, Norbert appears to be moving more to the west-northwest, or 300/6. Global models are in good agreement on a weakening ridge over northwestern Mexico forcing the storm to move northwestward over the next few days. Model guidance is well clustered on a track offshore of Baja Califoria Sur, except for the GFDL which has a known northward bias in this region. Norbert is still expected to pass close enough to bring tropical- storm-force winds to portions of the state. The new forecast is a little farther south of the previous one during the first 24 hours, mostly because of the earlier westward motion. Little change has been made to the rest of the forecast, which is just to the west of the dynamical track consensus.

Moisture from the combination of Norbert and the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to spread northwestward across northern Mexico during the next couple of days, and into the southwestern United States over the weekend. Heavy rain causing life-threatening flash flooding are possible in those regions. Please see information from your local weather office for more details.

After reading this, I re checked this forecast and whoa...check out the wave energy and height for Friday night...uh oh and it says rain then too...ruh roh...guess I wont be going to Ensenada this weekend after all...got my mops ready!
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Asuncion-Bay/forecasts/l...

[Edited on 9-3-2014 by shari]

bajabuddha - 9-3-2014 at 04:56 PM

"THE NORBERT ENSEMBLE".... and who knew he could even dance? :cool:

Katiejay99 - 9-3-2014 at 06:30 PM

I guess a Norbert reports Thread wasn't necessary?

Anyhow, it is calm in Todos Santos now. No wind, no rain a few clouds.

Norbert is now a hurricane.

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by Katiejay99]

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by Katiejay99]

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 06:56 PM

They say Norbert will be a Cat2 tomorrow at 2pm.

shari - 9-3-2014 at 07:22 PM

We have guests here from DF on their Harleys who's destination is Todos Santos tomorrow...so please let me know what develops...gracias compas!

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 09:32 PM

.
....as Norbert develops,,it seems to be getting a stronger top-end strength,,a later turn to the east-possibly as late as N.O.B.,,,and maybe ,hopefully is gaining a little west in it's trajectory..........I think those west pointing fans in Cabo are helping!
...the reality is that the whole of baja needs be on alert

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

Bajaboy - 9-3-2014 at 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202
.
....as Norbert develops,,it seems to be getting a stronger top-end strength,,a later turn to the east-possibly as late as N.O.B.,,,and maybe ,hopefully is gaining a little west in it's trajectory..........I think those west pointing fans in Cabo are helping!
...the reality is that the whole of baja needs be on alert

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

We will gladly take the rain in San Diego.

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 10:07 PM

.
...it's looking like by friday or so,,windstrengths up the coast are looking to be ~40-50mph.
...it's unclear how big a band of rain,but it's looking like few will be left wishing for more

[img] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP14/refresh/EP1414_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/024605.gif[/img]

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

bajajudy - 9-3-2014 at 10:38 PM

We have no wind
Had a couple of spritz that didn't even wet the ground.

micah202 - 9-3-2014 at 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
We have no wind
Had a couple of spritz that didn't even wet the ground.

...hmm,,maybe put the laundry out--better now than tomorrow afternoon

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 03:41 AM

4:30am
Rain
No wind

pauldavidmena - 9-4-2014 at 05:08 AM

It looks like a wet, windy drive-by is in store. Cuídate, amigos!

Katiejay99 - 9-4-2014 at 05:16 AM

light rain, little wind here at 6am.

Russ - 9-4-2014 at 05:35 AM

Strong winds 30+ mph no rain and too dark to see. but real soon. Sat. images don't show anything but yet there is a lot of wind

shari - 9-4-2014 at 06:14 AM

laundry report...ready to hang before the storm! hahaha...
Today will be a big day for many of you down yonder...be safe...good luck amigos...keep those reports coming. Our Harley dudes are on their way to Todos Santos now...I doubt their flight will leave tomorrow!

Katiejay99 - 9-4-2014 at 06:34 AM

Hey Shari - don't do like me. I was so proud that I got my laundry washed and hung yesterday morning - the thing is I forgot to bring it in before the rains started. Ugg!

Bill Collector - 9-4-2014 at 06:37 AM

Strange San Jose seems to miss the rain. Started raining this morning around 3am, very hard at times. Still raining 7:30 am , seas are flat, no winds.

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 07:12 AM

just started raining again....very light.
No wind
Dark
Will head down to the beach later to check out the surf.

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Katiejay99
Hey Shari - don't do like me. I was so proud that I got my laundry washed and hung yesterday morning - the thing is I forgot to bring it in before the rains started. Ugg!

...nothing wrong with an extra rinse--especially if you use that mexi-soap

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 07:19 AM

...interestingly,,,the post I made last night with the track projections at top of page is somehow self-unpdating
to this morning's charts !?

...one needs to muse at computer models--can it really be that Norbert will develop such an attraction for Shari that he'll want to go back for a second visit!?

...the reality is that the whole of baja needs be on alert at least for a solid rinse.

Bill Collector - 9-4-2014 at 07:36 AM

Its really coming down hard, winds are picking, seas are nasty.. very strong winds and rain

Katiejay99 - 9-4-2014 at 08:01 AM

Wow - dead calm in Todos Santos. No rain, no wind - oh, I see sprinkles in the pool.

As of 9:15 A.M.

Howard - 9-4-2014 at 08:22 AM

Loreto

Only 86 degrees, very light wind cloudy but not dark skies.

According to Jimmy B.

The weather is here I wish you were beautiful
The skies are too clear life's so easy today

monoloco - 9-4-2014 at 08:42 AM

Nice gentle rain falling for the last hour here on the beach in Pescadero.

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 09:27 AM

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orth...

[img]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-133.89,29.00,1065[/img]

Mulege Laundry Update

Mulegena - 9-4-2014 at 09:38 AM

Thursday the 4th (the day after Hurricane John some 8 or 9 years ago)

Woke up to hot & really blustery winds from the west that knocked my bath towels and hand-washed dresses onto the floor of the porch. Drats! Big loads done yesterday-- smart girl.

Grocery shopping stock up done yesterday. Will stock up on drinking water today.

Will check on a friend who is here for his first season.
Until you've been through a storm in Baja it isn't quite real.

Better to be prepared.

bigmike58 - 9-4-2014 at 09:39 AM

The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues.

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bigmike58
The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues.

...yes,,that's a good reminder that the forecasts aren't locked-in-stone,,,anything can change,,,either way!

...I have a feeling that the image below will soon update from the 8amEDT time showing currently

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

mtgoat666 - 9-4-2014 at 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202

Quote:

Originally posted by bigmike58
The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues.

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]

the maps are just scattershots of model runs. read the discussion for interpretation of the models....

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

Norbert has become a little better organized overnight, with the
TRMM and AMSR2 microwave sensors indicating that the low- and
mid-level centers have become more vertically aligned. The cyclone
is still experiencing northeasterly shear though, given the
asymmetric shape on the latest satellite images. Dvorak intensity
estimates are all near 75 kt, so that will used as the initial wind
speed. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Norbert, and should provide a more precise estimate of
its intensity.

While moderate shear has been affecting the cyclone, it has not
been strong enough to prevent slow strengthening. Although the
shear is not forecast to change much over the next few days,
Norbert is expected to move into an environment characterized by
cooler SSTs and drier, more stable air. These negative factors
should cause some weakening on Friday, with a more significant
downward trend anticipated by late this weekend. The latest NHC
forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast
and the intensity consensus. Norbert should become a remnant low in
about 4 days due to it moving over very cool waters west of Baja
California.

The track of Norbert has been quite erratic over the past 24 hours,
but a 12-hour motion still appears to be northwestward at about 6
kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain over northwestern
Mexico, keeping Norbert on the same general course during the next
few days, offshore of Baja California. At long range, model
guidance remains divergent on how much of a northward turn that
Norbert will take due to a mid-latitude trough weakening the ridge.
The 3-5 day track also partially depends on the intensity at that
time range, with a deeper system probably moving farther west, more
like the ECMWF solution. Since there has not been much change to
the overall guidance, the new NHC forecast is about the same as the
previous one, and remains relatively close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

Russ - 9-4-2014 at 10:26 AM

Just got back from town after stocking up for what ever comes in the next month.
Norbert is REALLY confused. I wouldn't but money on it's path.
It's still really windy here average around 20mph but lots of gust 25+ Thin layer of clouds now.

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 10:28 AM

Raining pretty good right now. From the dog bowls, I would say that we have had about an inch, maybe a little more
winds out of the east(?), gusting to 10knots max. I put a question mark because the forecasts call for out of the SSE. I believe that means that, in fact, Norbert is not as close as they thought it would be.

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by bajajudy]

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 12:29 PM

Apparently San Lucas is getting some wind. A picture was posted in Facebook of the Chileno beach signs blown over.
Still not much here as far as wind... A few more gusts
Just checked our anemometer...it is showing steady 10mph, with gusts to 15.
Getting dark again.

karenintx - 9-4-2014 at 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Apparently San Lucas is getting some wind.

We are having on & off rain showers with some wind...no problems for us yet but I am sure folks in town are experiencing more than us.

We are on the east side of the bay. The arroyo must be running pretty fast or it looks that way from the webcam...

http://www.meteosurfcanarias.com/webcams/new/beach-cams-prov...

Mula - 9-4-2014 at 01:37 PM

First wind/rain squall has just come in to Lopez just now.

Mulegena - 9-4-2014 at 02:08 PM

Wind in Mulege has increased, still from the south-west.

La Paz update: Daughter just posted a photo on FB. La Paz is raining-- university classes cancelled!

BajaBlanca - 9-4-2014 at 02:18 PM

hot humid and ever so slight breeze here on the Pacific. No clouds. We were told to expect rain today but only time will tell.

Buckle down anyways everyone!

Loreto:

Howard - 9-4-2014 at 02:22 PM

As of 3:17 it just started to rain with off and on wind. It's been coming down pretty good for the last 1/4 hour.

elizabeth - 9-4-2014 at 02:27 PM

And now at 3:25, very light! At least in Colonia Centro! Could change quickly.

Russ - 9-4-2014 at 02:39 PM

after my 10:26 post the wind increased with out a let up. 25mph average now with many gusts over 35mph. High gust 37 so far. I can't remember wind this strong and lasting so long and almost no clouds. Too strange

monoloco - 9-4-2014 at 02:58 PM

Currently, the barometric pressure is 29.56 and falling, no wind, and light rain.
We've received .39 inches of rain today.

shari - 9-4-2014 at 03:06 PM

laundry report...all dry with blue skies and 15 knots of wind from the NW with a swell building by the hour. Pangas are being beached...again.

supposed to rain here a tad tomorrow but looks like Norbert is being a good boy for now.

danaeb - 9-4-2014 at 03:06 PM

La Paz:

For all the Paceños who aren't there but want to see what's happening, here's a link to a webcam on the malecon (facing west).

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-la-paz.html

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 03:26 PM

Steady 20-25, gusts to 35
Rain
Barometer..29.4. Funny I had forgotten we had one. Used to be the only way to tell if a storm was coming. Back in the dark ages before the internet.

Bill Collector - 9-4-2014 at 03:55 PM

We lost power at 12:30,still on generator at 5:00.. Rain gauge showing 3 1/2 inches so far. The rain has not let up all day, some time very heavy others gentle. No wind, little wave action out of the East

[Edited on 9-4-2014 by Bill Collector]

bledito - 9-4-2014 at 04:16 PM

any pics of buena vista/los barilles? Are the arroyo's running? How is the new concrete road across the arroyo holding up?

Mulegena - 9-4-2014 at 04:20 PM

Mulege Laundry List, 5 pm.
Clouds have come in from Lopez/San Juanico but... the clothes are still dry.

Sky is clabbering up but still blue patches. Not too hot and NOT humid!! Gasp! No rain here yet, but we're ready. Ricardo is speaking with his uncle up in La Purissima as what happens there affects the Mulege river valley. He says a few drops of rain up on the hills but no get-down rain. The hurricane has slowed in it's path... so we wait.

David K - 9-4-2014 at 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by danaeb
La Paz:

For all the Paceños who aren't there but want to see what's happening, here's a link to a webcam on the malecon (facing west).

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-la-paz.html

Beautiful camera shot! Thanks!

Bill Collector - 9-4-2014 at 05:20 PM

Sorry no pic of Buena Vista/Los Barriles. Heard rain is running down the main street in town. Good news we have power back on...rain guage 4 1/2 inches

Katiejay99 - 9-4-2014 at 05:41 PM

6:40pm calm, cloudy and not raining in Todos Santos. Very quiet. LARGE SWELLS.

dtbushpilot - 9-4-2014 at 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bill Collector
Sorry no pic of Buena Vista/Los Barriles. Heard rain is running down the main street in town. Good news we have power back on...rain guage 4 1/2 inches

Here is a link to Mark's web cam in Buena Vista:

http://teamjenwren.com/east-cape-webcam.html

bledito - 9-4-2014 at 05:45 PM

sounds like a good downpour. wonder how long before it comes in from the mountians.

Cabo Web Cams

windgrrl - 9-4-2014 at 05:47 PM

Pedegral cam showing gnarly surf
http://www.meteosurfcanarias.com/webcams/new/beach-cams-prov...

Best wishes to all riders of the storm,
W

shari - 9-4-2014 at 06:12 PM

Anyone is Todos Santos with a report or is it too hairy there?

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
Anyone is Todos Santos with a report or is it too hairy there?

....looking to ba a hairy -monster-

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 06:27 PM

.
...an epic picture from Cabo webcam...

[img]http://webcamsdemexico.net/cabos1/live.jpg?d=1409877865193[/img]

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 06:31 PM

..

.....I'm glad the 'hook' is gone from the projected path...I'm rather sure -one- sweep of Ascunsion will be plenty

...'surf shack' indeed.

[Edited on 9-5-2014 by micah202]

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 06:55 PM

WHEW
Just back from the beach. Huge surf breaking into the palapa parking lot.
When they were digging the marina they made a road along the beach in La Playita out of the sludge so they could transport the rest of the sludge out to El Ranchito. The road has been eroding since. We pulled up to check out the surf, got out of the car, and barely made it back in when a huge swell drenched all the guys standing on the edge. I was surprised that they did not get sucked out to sea. I have sand in my ears. Judging from Russ' chart I would say that it was blowing over 35.
I would bet that the northern jetty of the marina will be sitting in the sea all by itself tomorrow. The waves are breaking from the sea side into the public beach.
All the pangas have been pulled(there were still about half left this mornng).
This is the most wind and rain that we have gotten all day
I would guess that it is coming your way if you are north of me.

Cappy - 9-4-2014 at 07:00 PM

Cerritos is calm. Light rain off and on. Surf grinding. Batten Down the hatches. Sounds like its on its way

woody with a view - 9-4-2014 at 07:06 PM

pictures, or it didn't happen!

bajajudy - 9-4-2014 at 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
pictures, or it didn't happen!

Yea right

shari - 9-4-2014 at 07:59 PM

sounds like it is going to be a very long and harrowing night for some on the west coast of the southern portion...Norbert is too close for comfort and packing alot of precipitation. I shall be resting up for our long night tomorrow. Be safe all, dont go near the sea or arroyos...hang on and keep those reports coming as long as you can. You may in in for nasty winds beyond your expectations...90-150 miles an hour is a force to be reckoned with...dang.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA VERY SOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

bajalinda - 9-4-2014 at 08:57 PM

9:55 pm. Calm for the moment here at La Aguja too. Some very light rain earlier this evening. Was cloudy all day with occasional wind gusts, but basically calm. We're expecting the rain during the night tonight and tomorrow.

BajaNomad - 9-4-2014 at 09:34 PM

.

norbert-thu9p.jpg - 50kB

bajabuddha - 9-4-2014 at 09:51 PM

i'm voting for number............. 13............

micah202 - 9-4-2014 at 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajabuddha
i'm voting for number............. 13............

...we get to ...-vote-!!?? :wow:

bajabuddha - 9-4-2014 at 10:09 PM

what can I say, it's my favorite number. :smug:

[Edited on 9-5-2014 by bajabuddha]

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