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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Tropical Storm Warning for BCS for Hurricane Norbert
TS Norbert seems to be content to stay a storm...no one is predicting hurricane status.
wed morning-
So much for that. Looks like Norbert will be a problem here.
[Edited on 9-3-2014 by bajajudy]
[Edited on 9-4-2014 by bajajudy]
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mtgoat666
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Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajajudy
TS Norbert seems to be content to stay a storm...no one is predicting hurricane status. |
i usually read the forecast discussion and avoid the graphics. the NWS NHC discussion yesterday said the current models are not reliable, and reading
between the lines they basically say "stay tuned, we dont know how this storm will develop."
the 2 pm today discussion said: "Except for moderate northeasterly shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the next
couple of days. Intensity guidance is a bit higher than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a hurricane."
still a chance it may turn northward, probably wont know that until thursday. if the highover mexico decreases later this week, could see it turn
north into penninsula....
anywho, the hurricane force winds should kick up some good surf for the north county san diego and OC crowd that is carpetbagging down south,
squabbling over breaks, introducing their negativity to the peace and love vibes of lore
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StuckSucks
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Bill Collector
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Location: Buena Vista, BCS
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Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja
California sur from La Paz southward around the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula northward to S
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bajajudy
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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So much for no hurricane
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Katiejay99
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Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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Watch out - he may just head right up the SOC.
Edited to change gender (but they are all finicky)
[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Katiejay99]
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alacran
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So we have Norbert again, it was around baja a few years back. At that time it wasno big thing, hope it stays the same this ime around.
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Katiejay99
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Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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List of things to get done early today:
Put up Hurricane shields
Get dog food
Get people food
gas up vehicles
get batteries
fill my garrafones (water containers)
Charge my phones
This ones gonna knock us here in Todos Santos around a little bit. The ground is already saturated from excessive rain on Monday.
I'll report as I can.
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shari
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Good idea Katiejay....all of you down south...please be safe and prepared especially for flooding. I had a bad feeling September would be an a$$
kicker.
Please keep reporting on weather as long as you can before your power goes out so those north of you have an idea what is coming.
We had a long discussion with Tomas who is the new director of the Proteccion Civil here in Asuncion about the need to keep lookey loos and daring
do's away from the big waves at the beach and here at the blowhole. It only takes one bigger wave to drag people out or bash them on the rocks.
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Katiejay99
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Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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I will keep reporting either by my computer or my smartphone (I can keep it charged in my truck). Unless the cell towers go down, I'll report. I just
looked at NHC and eebmike and YIKES!
The storm that hit on Monday I noticed that as soon as it passed a whole bunch of people showed up on the beach. I asked a friend of mine why and he
said it was the fishermen handlining and that right after a storm was the best time to catch fish from the shore.
Everyone keep safe.
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vandenberg
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GFDL predictions have over the years come closest.
If they are correct Asuncion may be in for a doozy 
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shari
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Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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often when the predictions say it is headed here...the dang thing gets sucked over to the gulf side and has it's way with Mulege...so be prepared for
flooding all. As mentioned much of baja is already saturated so flooding will be worse. If we do get rain and another big swell, the new highway at
the entrance to Asuncion will flood and more of the town sand bank will get eroded away.
looks like a problem for this weekend's fishing tournament here! By the way, the yellowtail bit is voracious right now
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bajajudy
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Overcast, no wind
Hot and humid
Getting our storm shutters up, gassing up, beering up, fooding up, watering up, lashing down
Already checked the generator
Norbert took a little jog to the west which makes the track a little better for us...
Hopefully for all of us!
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micah202
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Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
often when the predictions say it is headed here...the dang thing gets sucked over to the gulf side and has it's way with Mulege...so be prepared for
flooding all. |
...yes that's my concern as well...some projection models I've seen show that as a possibility but one can 'almost' be sure at this point that Mulege
will receive significant precipitation.
.
[Edited on 9-3-2014 by micah202]
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Mulegena
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Oh, where's hell's fire when ya' need it? Dry up this thing!
Stay safe, Everybody.
Have a plan and work it -- ahead of time, which would be now.
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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mtgoat666
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031444
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014
Norbert has become significantly better organized this morning.
The central dense overcast has become more symmetric with more
prominent banding around the center. Microwave images also show
that the inner core is becoming better defined, with the likely
first stages of a primitive eye. The initial wind speed is set to
55 kt, at the top end of the subjective Dvorak estimates, although
the latest objective numbers are higher. With the improvement in
the inner core, light-to-moderate shear, and very warm waters,
future strengthening seems quite likely. In fact, rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI
showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in the next 24 hours. Considering the environmental factors and the low bias of the
deterministic guidance so far, the new NHC intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one, about 5 kt above the highest guidance
through 48 hours. After that time, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to weaken the cyclone. The NHC forecast is blended with
the previous forecast and the intensity consensus at long range.
With recent microwave and visible imagery, it appears that Norbert has been moving westward over the past few hours. However, a more representative
long-term motion is 295/8. Mid-level ridging is expected to weaken later today over northwestern Mexico, which should cause Norbert to turn more to
the northwest. While all of the reliable guidance keeps the center of the storm offshore of Baja California Sur, Norbert should come close enough to
bring tropical-storm-force winds to the state. The models have shifted somewhat
southward since the last cycle, and with the recent westward motion, it makes sense to adjust the NHC forecast a little farther south for the first
day or so. There hasn't been much change to the guidance beyond day 3, so the new forecast is basically an update to the previous one.
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP14/refresh/EP1414W5_NL+gif/151130W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]
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micah202
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...something of a 'read' on Norbert from a reliable california based sort...warns to boat owners (and doctors) in Ensenada
The NHC has been well behind the curve with Tropical Storm Norbert. At first the models were forecasting a Tropical Storm through day five. Curious
given the moderate shear and very warm SSTs. Now the shear is relaxing, 29'C SSTs are available to the system and rapid intensification should occur.
Category 5 Hurricane Marie was also underdone on the forecast consistently and IMHO the same will be true of Norbert. Norbert should become a
hurricane very shortly and based on what I see should become yet another major hurricane by tomorrow as it scrapes by Cabo and heads generally
parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Much warmer than normal SSTs are the rule along the path until about half way up the Mexican coastline but by that
time Norbert may very well have intensified to a point where he impacts for Southern California early next week. IS it finally time for the long
overdue tropical wash down we have been talking about since May? I don't know but the models are a mess and in my estimation unreliable beginning
over the weekend. If you have a boat in Ensenada this one is worth watching. Further up the coast the chances are more remote that a true tropical
cyclone will impact us here in SOCAL but we'll have to see what Norbert decodes to do as we get to the weekend.
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Katiejay99
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Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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TS Norbert Reports
I thought it would be a good idea to have a special topic just for our reports.
It is overcast with a light breeze in Todos Santos today.
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Howard
Super Nomad
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Mood: I'd rather regret the things I've done than regret the things I haven't done.
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Same from Loreto
92 degrees in the shade with the wind picking up a little bit.
[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Howard]
[Edited on 9-3-2014 by Howard]
We don't stop playing because we grow old;
we grow old because we stop playing
George Bernard Shaw
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bajajudy
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Sun is out. Wish I had done a load of clothes!
My guy is here putting up the storm shutters on our office and store.
No wind, 85 on the porch.
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