BajaNomad

Tropical Storm Polo

BajaNomad - 9-16-2014 at 06:36 AM

TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 98.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

[Edited on 9-18-2014 by BajaNomad]

[Edited on 9-19-2014 by BajaNomad]

polo-tue-634a.jpg - 50kB

ehall - 9-16-2014 at 07:22 AM

Just saw this on the news this morning. Let's hope it heads west.

mtnpop - 9-16-2014 at 07:22 AM

as others will probably say

Holy crap on a cracker.....

must just be our year ....

DENNIS - 9-16-2014 at 07:27 AM

This is like being in the ring with a welterweight. The punches come hard and fast.

cj5orion - 9-16-2014 at 07:31 AM

http://sailflow.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#29.728,-11...

POLO ...sunday aft.....FORECAST !!!!!

lets hope its correct !

SFandH - 9-16-2014 at 08:37 AM

Surface winds animated graphic showing both storms and a hurricane in the Atlantic.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-87.58,21.71,1500

Bob H - 9-16-2014 at 09:25 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SFandH
Surface winds animated graphic showing both storms and a hurricane in the Atlantic.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-87.58,21.71,1500


This is a fantastic link. You can move it all around~~ Thanks.

bajabuddha - 9-16-2014 at 12:44 PM

For those planning on heading down to work on their damages from Odile, PLEASE pay attention to Tropical Storm Polo; it is due to become at least a CAT 1 in the next 2 days (by Wednesday 9/19) and is setting course towards Baja. Yogi's still right; "it ain't over 'till it's over''... more to come, don't get caught with your proverbial pants down in another one. Use judgment and be patient.

shari - 9-16-2014 at 01:27 PM

Sure hope I can get back home between storms. I cant get any info on the roads

DianaT - 9-16-2014 at 01:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
Sure hope I can get back home between storms. I cant get any info on the roads


It would seem that the bus station should have road information at least for the main roads.

Nancy Drew - 9-16-2014 at 01:52 PM

Wow another one on its way!

Just to give you a visual on the power of the wind on the surf this fellow did an excellent job of capturing it on video. The size of the waves before the hurricane arrives.
http://www.enjoygram.com/m/810456511855792994_5416091

Bajaboy - 9-16-2014 at 02:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
Sure hope I can get back home between storms. I cant get any info on the roads


We're not sure about our travel plans as well. I'm seriously thinking Vizcaino might not have gasoline.

StuckSucks - 9-16-2014 at 04:07 PM




El Jefe - 9-16-2014 at 04:13 PM

I heard third hand that Hwy 1 is closed at Viscaino. But as always things can change rapidly. Crews usually seem to get the road passable within a few days. Lots of new bridges have been built on 1 over the past few years. I hope they all survive. Time will tell and only direct reports can be trusted right now.

Udo - 9-16-2014 at 04:29 PM

If no gas in Vizcaino, there are three stations in GN, plus the one in Jesus Maria. If going south, the next station is San Ignacio.
(But I don't think I have to tell you this, you are as local as I am)


Quote:
Originally posted by Bajaboy
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
Sure hope I can get back home between storms. I cant get any info on the roads


We're not sure about our travel plans as well. I'm seriously thinking Vizcaino might not have gasoline.

LaTijereta - 9-16-2014 at 05:44 PM

Keep in mind that Pemex stations in Baja Sur get their supply from La Paz.. So GN and Vizcaino may be very limited, even if they had power to pump..

Bajaboy - 9-16-2014 at 05:59 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by LaTijereta
Keep in mind that Pemex stations in Baja Sur get their supply from La Paz.. So GN and Vizcaino may be very limited, even if they had power to pump..


Exactly. Last reliable would be El Rosario assuming people weren't stocking up and reselling further south. I hope there is some sort of rationing. Would love to hear from Antonio.

wilderone - 9-17-2014 at 12:18 PM

Don't forget how the projected track for Odile changed big time - from heading NNW (away from land), to N, then NE right downtown.

shari - 9-17-2014 at 12:25 PM

i am trying to find out if Asuncion has gas...there is power or was last night but the phones are down again...dang it.

never trust a hurricane model! We know that! They slow down, speed up and go where they please,

[Edited on 9-17-2014 by shari]

bajabuddha - 9-17-2014 at 12:42 PM

Keep in mind that mechanics of a hurricane dictate a cooling of the ocean temp once a 'big one' has passed over; HOPEFULLY that will have cause/effect on slowing/lessening Polo, just hoping. And Shari, you should have at least a good 4-day window to get back home. Take care, gal. Yo mama din't raise no fool (Chuckie told me). Via con Dios.

shari - 9-17-2014 at 12:50 PM

the bus station said the highway was clear from Ensenada to GN last night around 9 which was erroneous as it appears...maybe they just want to sell tickets. I planned to take this afternoon's bus but not at all confident the highway is open yet...still cant get through to federal police either.

Udo - 9-17-2014 at 03:06 PM

The bus will more than likely make through the two washes just south of Cataviņa. Supposedly there is some heavy water still running there, Shari

BajaNomad - 9-17-2014 at 03:06 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

polo-wed-304p.jpg - 49kB

Polo

mexicali-kid - 9-17-2014 at 03:18 PM

POLO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF
MEXICO BECOMING A HURRICANE TONIGHT (2014SEP17) OR THURSDAY. THERE IS AGAIN A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml

StuckSucks - 9-17-2014 at 05:16 PM


shari - 9-17-2014 at 05:42 PM

I just spoke to Antonio at Baja Cactus and there is lots of fuel and the road crews are working hard to get the road open by tomorrow.

BajaNomad - 9-17-2014 at 05:55 PM

TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
500 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

polo-wed-552p.jpg - 49kB

Polo is now a hurricane

Whale-ista - 9-17-2014 at 08:01 PM

NOAA advisory

rufflife - 9-17-2014 at 08:08 PM

I know it is a bit early, but if you look at eebmike.com, it looks like it is swinging even further west of Baja...

http://eebmike.com/

Motoman - 9-17-2014 at 08:14 PM

Hurricane Central's lastest report says Polo won't make it to Baja.

bigmike58 - 9-17-2014 at 08:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Motoman
Hurricane Central's lastest report says Polo won't make it to Baja.


I hope you're right! I heading down tomorrow with supplies.

BajaBoomerBabe - 9-17-2014 at 08:21 PM

yes, yes, yes. Those poor people do not need another hurricane or rain.:bounce:

BajaNomad - 9-17-2014 at 09:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista
NOAA advisory



HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
800 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

[Edited on 9-18-2014 by BajaNomad]

BajaNomad - 9-18-2014 at 12:02 AM

HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

polo-thu-1201a.jpg - 49kB

Zola - 9-18-2014 at 01:59 AM

Shari,

The Mexican government advises that it is NOT POSSIBLE to drive to southern Baja. Highway 1 is clear from Ensenada only to Catavina, where there is an impassable arroyo, followed by another just down the road to the south. Hightway 1 is therefore CLOSED at Catavina and at further points south. The article also indicates that there are completely unpassable stretches just after El Rosario.

There are numerous inundations, and officials say that travelers should not attempt at present to drive from Northern to Southern Baja.

http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Noticias/17092...

It seems to me that if you head down now, you risk making yourself part of the problem, and they have enough problems on their hands. I would wait at least until they have cleared the arroyos that block passage along Highway 1. I also have heard that it is impassable at Vizcaino.

The good news is that Hurrican Polo will likely not approach Baja, and there is calm weather to follow at least for awhile. So stay put, organize your return, and don't put yourself in harm's way and add to the burdens that they have down there. I understand if you have loved ones, but even then use common sense. I too have property in southern Baja, which is safe and sound I am relieved to say, but now is not the time to race to Southern Baja. Let it recover, then go down to help out as you can.

larryC - 9-18-2014 at 08:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Zola
Shari,

The Mexican government advises that it is NOT POSSIBLE to drive to southern Baja. Highway 1 is clear from Ensenada only to Catavina, where there is an impassable arroyo, followed by another just down the road to the south. Hightway 1 is therefore CLOSED at Catavina and at further points south. The article also indicates that there are completely unpassable stretches just after El Rosario.

There are numerous inundations, and officials say that travelers should not attempt at present to drive from Northern to Southern Baja.

http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Noticias/17092...

It seems to me that if you head down now, you risk making yourself part of the problem, and they have enough problems on their hands. I would wait at least until they have cleared the arroyos that block passage along Highway 1. I also have heard that it is impassable at Vizcaino.

The good news is that Hurrican Polo will likely not approach Baja, and there is calm weather to follow at least for awhile. So stay put, organize your return, and don't put yourself in harm's way and add to the burdens that they have down there. I understand if you have loved ones, but even then use common sense. I too have property in southern Baja, which is safe and sound I am relieved to say, but now is not the time to race to Southern Baja. Let it recover, then go down to help out as you can.


A friend of mine was stopped at the northern arroyo just as you enter Catavina at 6am yesterday the 17th, by high water, by 9am the water had dropped enough and cars were allowed through. He was then able to make it all the way into bola.
Larry

shari - 9-18-2014 at 08:28 AM

thanks Larry....and thank you Zola for your concern...but this aint my first rodeo. Believe me, I am fairly cautious but also know how fast arroyos drain and road crews get cracking to open up passage...albeit a rough one. The plan is to get home by tomorrow night...but we all know how planning in baja goes...hahaha.

BajaDanD - 9-18-2014 at 08:34 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Zola
Shari,

The Mexican government advises that it is NOT POSSIBLE to drive to southern Baja. Highway 1 is clear from Ensenada only to Catavina, where there is an impassable arroyo, followed by another just down the road to the south. Hightway 1 is therefore CLOSED at Catavina and at further points south. The article also indicates that there are completely unpassable stretches just after El Rosario.

There are numerous inundations, and officials say that travelers should not attempt at present to drive from Northern to Southern Baja.

http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Noticias/17092...

It seems to me that if you head down now, you risk making yourself part of the problem, and they have enough problems on their hands. I would wait at least until they have cleared the arroyos that block passage along Highway 1. I also have heard that it is impassable at Vizcaino.

The good news is that Hurrican Polo will likely not approach Baja, and there is calm weather to follow at least for awhile. So stay put, organize your return, and don't put yourself in harm's way and add to the burdens that they have down there. I understand if you have loved ones, but even then use common sense. I too have property in southern Baja, which is safe and sound I am relieved to say, but now is not the time to race to Southern Baja. Let it recover, then go down to help out as you can.



You make that sound like Shari is just a visitor wanting to check on the situation down there. She does however live there full time and was only up in Ensenada to visit her daughter and Grandson and is now wanting to get home. If you know Shari, you would know she is not capable of being part of the problem.

chuckie - 9-18-2014 at 08:34 AM

If anyone can do it, you can, love and luck to ya! Seeya in the fall, 1st one is on me...

BajaDanD - 9-18-2014 at 08:37 AM

We will be down the end of October see you then. Be safe

micah202 - 9-18-2014 at 09:15 AM

.
....it's good to see there's still a fair amount of westing in Polo's projected path,,but if Odie reminded us one thing,,,it's just how fickle these storms can be,,and weather forecasting is a largepart guesswork

''On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass
well south of the southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track forecast is relatively high''





[Edited on 9-18-2014 by micah202]

pappy - 9-18-2014 at 10:59 AM

hurricane central did a good job of explaining why odile took the path it did. the high pressure system over mainland mexico shifted to the east a bit which shifted its perimeter from west of baja to right over it. this is the path odile followed. same set up now for polo. if the high remains where it is, the perimeter is weell west of baja. however, if it shifts east-like with odile- then it could be trouble. hopefully it will stay where it currently is and polo will track west of baja...

BajaNomad - 9-18-2014 at 12:47 PM

HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

polo-thu-1247p.jpg - 50kB

jakethedog - 9-18-2014 at 12:58 PM

Micah, we all need to listen to you. You really predicted that last one well. No it all***

StuckSucks - 9-18-2014 at 02:14 PM


El Jefe - 9-18-2014 at 02:18 PM

eebmike.com shows it weakening already. Downgraded to tropical storm.. Good thing.

Eli - 9-18-2014 at 03:12 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
thanks Larry....and thank you Zola for your concern...but this aint my first rodeo. Believe me, I am fairly cautious but also know how fast arroyos drain and road crews get cracking to open up passage...albeit a rough one. The plan is to get home by tomorrow night...but we all know how planning in baja goes...hahaha.


Ah Shari, Luv Ya! Have a safe journey home.
Me, I am going to continue to watch from afar. San Miguel de Allende is pretty darn cool and comfy about now. Besides, I talked with the kids today, they got it all handled. Hopefully, things will be somewhat in order when I am due to fly home Oct. 8th.

mtgoat666 - 9-18-2014 at 03:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by pappy
hurricane central did a good job of explaining why odile took the path it did. the high pressure system over mainland mexico shifted to the east a bit which shifted its perimeter from west of baja to right over it. this is the path odile followed.


i was curious so looked at archives of NHC hurricane forecast:

sept 10 NHC forecasted coming ashore at cabo
sept 11 and 12 NHC forecasted it staying off shore
sept 13 NHC forecasted it hitting cabo
sept 14 it hit cabo

the many lessons learned: forecasts 2 to 4 days out may be right or may be wrong, wtf knows what mother nature will do?? forecasts 1 day out are better. the weather does not behave according to forecast. the forecasts and warning envelope of forecast maps are based on probabilities. mother nature does not behave as the statisticians and meteorologist say she will. do not plan a vacation in hurricane country during hurricane season (anyhow, it's much too hot to travel in baja during hurricane season, eh?). wish for the best, prepare for the worst.

mtgoat666 - 9-18-2014 at 03:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaNomad
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014


from the NHC website:

the forecast cone around forecast hurricane track is based on "two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample" and "Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."

what you all should probably read in that: the forecast track lies within a cone. 30 or 40 percent of hurricanes will take a path that deviates outside the cone.

what do you think about those warning cones around hurricane tracks?

BajaNomad - 9-18-2014 at 06:04 PM

TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 106.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

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BajaNomad - 9-19-2014 at 08:33 AM

TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 CORRECTED
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014


... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

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BajaNomad - 9-19-2014 at 09:48 PM

TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

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David K - 9-19-2014 at 09:58 PM

Mercy for Baja!

ladydi - 9-20-2014 at 09:05 AM

Thank Goodness!

BajaNomad - 9-20-2014 at 10:42 AM

TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

BajaNomad - 9-20-2014 at 07:50 PM

TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.




[Edited on 9-21-2014 by BajaNomad]

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