wilderone
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3924
Registered: 2-9-2004
Member Is Offline
|
|
NASA image - El Nino prediction
Baja California looks particularly vulnerable (see Oct. 12, 2026 image) as well as southern Mexico coast.
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/el-nino-the...
|
|
|
BooJumMan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 952
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
|
|
That isn't a prediction, that is current sea surface height anomalies which is directly tied to thermal expansion of the ocean. This is also being
called the "Kelvin Wave" which is already being measured through the NOAA tide buoys. Its clearly visible here in San Diego as well, the tide is 1.5ft
higher than predicted.
El Nino is a multi staged series of events. We are seeing many of the first stages (reversal of trade winds, warm water pooling on eastern equatorial
pacific and some increased convection along the eastern equatorial pacific). But when the general public thinks of "El Nino" it is tied with the
increased and charged winter storms. We should start seeing the Northern jetstream react to these atmospheric changes, but it hasn't happened yet.
There is still plenty of time for the northern jet to react.
Another major player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - It is a long term record of warm and cool phases of the Pacific. Right now we've been
in a cold phase which may dampen this years El Nino, as it did during the last "Godzilla El Nino" of 2015-2016 (which was pretty much an average
winter for Baja and California).
In that pre-Google Earth and social media epoch, The Code was adhered to. It was based on a simple verity: if a locale had been transformational for
you, and you had put the hard yards in to get there and to learn it, to know it, why in god�s name would you broadcast the news, thus ruining the
future experience not only for yourself, but for future adventurers?
|
|
|
AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6459
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
Member Is Offline
Mood: Retireded
|
|
It's been a strange year!
This mornings news is forecasting a tropical storm forming in the western Pacific and moving eastward toward Hawaii.
That's not normal!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
|
|
|
Tioloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6275
Registered: 7-30-2014
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  | This mornings news is forecasting a tropical storm forming in the western Pacific and moving eastward toward Hawaii.
That's not normal! |
If you look back over the long term, there is no "normal" with regard to weather patterns on this planet.
|
|
|
AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6459
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
Member Is Offline
Mood: Retireded
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by Tioloco | | Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo | This mornings news is forecasting a tropical storm forming in the western Pacific and moving eastward toward Hawaii.
That's not normal! |
If you look back over the long term, there is no "normal" with regard to weather patterns on this planet. |
Agreed....I should have said "not common"
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
|
|
|
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
