Sunday?s National Elections Looming in Mexico
http://www.mexidata.info/id951.html
June 29, 2006
By Kent Paterson
In less than 72 hours, Mexican voters will go the polls to elect a new president and congress. Pre-election surveys claim a very tight race between
two of the five presidential candidates: former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the standard-bearer of the center-left For the Good of
All coalition, and Felipe Calderon of President Fox's conservative National Action Party (PAN). In an interview with Frontera NorteSur, Roy Campos,
the president of Mitofsky Consultants, one of Mexico's leading polling organizations, said polls give a slight edge to Lopez Obrador but the election
outcome is impossible to predict.
"The polls showed that it's a competitive scenario. We simply have to wait for the election results and respect them," Campos said. Whoever wins the
race will have to excel as a political negotiator, because a split Mexican Congress with no one party in control is the likely outcome of next
Sunday's elections. "We're going to have a president corralled by a divided congress," Campos predicted.
Widely criticized for extravagant campaign spending and mud slinging in place of a serious debate, the final days of the 2006 election campaign have
been marked by charges and countercharges. Especially between the Lopez Obrador and Calderon camps, allegations of influence peddling, vote buying,
money laundering, manipulation of voter rolls and ballot-counting software, physical intimidation, illegal church interference, and destruction of
campaign publicity are flying about fast and heavy.
Considered the third-rated candidate in the polls, Roberto Madrazo of the Alliance for Mexico, a coalition made up of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) and Mexican Green Party, is making a last-ditch effort to pull ahead by positioning himself outside the Lopez Obrador-Calderon slugfest
and portraying his candidacy as the centrist alternative to the right-wing "neoliberalism" of Calderon and the left-wing "radicalism" of Lopez
Obrador.
The Propaganda War
Pulling out the heavy artillery, the Calderon camp saturated the airwaves with hard-hitting spots, while e-mails, some of them anonymous and
accompanied by scenes of narco-executions in Acapulco, circulated on the Internet and warned of disaster if Lopez Obrador is elected president.
Comparing Lopez Obrador's economic reform proposals to the debacles of the Jose Lopez Portillo (1976-82) and Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-94)
administrations, the media offensive stokes fears of inflation, economic stagnation, debt and doom. On the flip side of the coin, other Calderon spots
that don't directly attack Lopez Obrador emphasize growth, stability and employment.
According to the El Universal newspaper, Calderon, who is President Fox's favored successor, has spent about US$55 million on electronic spots just in
Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey since last January. From June 17 to 23, 3,335 Calderon spots aired nationally, including more than 300 during
prime-time hours, according to the newspaper.
For the first real time in decades, a pronounced left-right polarization in Mexican politics is resurfacing and rekindling long-standing divisions
that were submerged somewhat during previous elections by a common focus on ousting the PRI from power. Ultra-conservative groups are reviving and
updating old, anti-communist messages, casting Lopez Obrador in the same mold as Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales.
As Hugo Chavez shouts "socialism or death" on one television spot, images of AK-47 rifles flash on the screen. Lopez Obrador is not mentioned in the
ad, but following months of similar spots that clearly showed Mexico City's former chief executive as part of Chavez and company, everyone gets the
message. Anti-Lopez Obrador forces are clearly betting on a Peru Effect, wagering that Chavez's image will help them triumph over the supposed leftist
demon.
Lopez Obrador's partisans contend a "dirty war" is being waged against their candidate, but they are not shy either about passing out or posting
insulting literature about Calderon and the PAN. Nonetheless, many pro-Lopez Obrador media messages generally have a positive, upbeat message. "Smile,
we're going to win," proclaims a common bumper sticker.
Class schisms are more obvious in the 2006 campaign than in previous ones. Without generalizing, Calderon is gathering support from small business
owners and other middle class sectors, while Lopez Obrador draws backing from small farmers, workers and low-income segments of the population.
In certain respects, the 2006 election exposes the two Mexicos sketched by analyst Sabino Bastidas. One Mexico travels abroad, learns other languages,
uses the Internet, and sips imported coffee and snacks on two-dollar muffins at the local Starbuck's, which are spreading across the land; conversely,
the other Mexico does not own a computer, attends crummy schools and is hard-pressed to make a living of any kind.
On a lighter note, and one that easily unites most Mexicans, most of the political parties took advantage of the hugely popular World Cup soccer
matches to fashion campaign propaganda that portrayed the candidates as winning soccer stars. Aping the current marketing campaigns for cell-phones
and Coca-Cola, soccer was melded into politics.
In Guadalajara, the PAN's mayoral candidate, Alfonso Petersen, even distributed a glossy political flyer that included the schedule for the World Cup
games held in Germany. Restaurants, bars and private homes were packed on June 24, the long-awaited but finally heart-breaking showdown between Mexico
and Argentina. A day that began with noisy pre-celebrations and rising expectations as Mexico gave Argentina a surprisingly good match ended in
whimpers when the Aztec eagle was eliminated from the competition. Still, the 2-1 defeat was close. Expect similar emotional roller coaster rides on
July 2 or July 3.
Hot Spots and Narco-Violence
Numerous Mexican election and government officials are discounting possible trouble from a number of sizzling social conflicts. A June 28 general
strike earlier announced by several major unions fizzled out, but the massive teacher's strike in Oaxaca state, now entering its second month, could
impact Sunday's voting.
Mexican officials deny that a sharp upturn in suspected narco-violence will negatively affect the election. Press accounts report that about 1,000
people have been murdered gangland style in Baja California, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Michoacan, Guerrero, and other states since the beginning
of the year. Recent victims included a guard for Baja California Governor Eugenio Elorduy and the son of a leading PAN activist in Reynosa,
Tamaulipas.
As the elections approach, a new wave of violence is striking tourist cities like Acapulco, where eight bodies were discovered strewn about the
streets on June 25 ? the same day Lopez Obrador held a massive closing campaign rally in the Pacific Coast port. Three days later, the head of a
victim was placed on the grounds of Acapulco?s city hall.
In Cancun, the city's second-ranking police commander was murdered on June 26, while in another tourist resort, Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, unidentified
assailants tossed grenades at two police stations early on the morning of June 24. In the first attack, an explosion at the tourist police station in
downtown Zihuatanejo shattered windows of the police building, a patrol car and an adjacent boutique. Two officers were slightly injured by the
explosion from a fragmentation grenade.
The attack occurred very close to bars that were crowded with Mexican nationals and foreign tourists. Shaken by the blast, tourists watched as armed
Mexican police scoured the streets for possible suspects. Joshua Stephens, a 23-year-old tourist from the US Midwest, was entering a popular bar with
his brother and girlfriend when the blast sent patrons to the floor for cover. "Everybody was very confused," Stephens said. "And then I walked and
looked around the corner just to see what was going on and there was a lot of smoke, a lot of dust."
Besides murders and grenade attacks, Zihuatanejo has a growing problem of attempted abductions and forced disappearances. Reminiscent of Ciudad
Juarez, posters of missing men are visible on city streets. Two weeks ago, hundreds of residents staged a "silent march" to demand answers about the
disappeared. None have been forthcoming.
In a widely quoted remark, Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, the head of the federal government's elite SIEDO anti-organized crime squad, downplayed the
possible impact of the narco-violence on the election. Commenting on Acapulco killings, Vasconcelos said a cluster of recent murders only meant,
"seven less (people) are going to vote."
State Elections
Virtually uncovered in the US national press, elections for state and local offices will be held in Mexico City and 9 states on July 2, including the
northern border states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. Some observers assess the negative tone of the governor's campaign in Jalisco state (the home of
Mexico's second largest city, Guadalajara) as equaling or surpassing that of the national race. A recent story in the national news magazine Proceso
framed the Jalisco governor's contest as a choice between the narco, allegedly infiltrated into the campaign of the PRI's Arturo Zamora, and the
ultra-right, embedded in the PAN's slate headed by former Guadalajara Mayor Emilio Gonzalez.
Zamora, who has served as the mayor of the huge Guadalajara suburb of Zapopan, was the subject of a recent, controversial story in the Mexico City
daily Reforma that alleged the politician was under investigation by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration. Reacting sharply to the news
story, the Zamora camp ran ads on Guadalajara-area radio stations that included the voice of a DEA official denying his agency had any knowledge of
the alleged Zamora probe. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has fended off stories linking two brothers (one deceased) to a big 1981 bank heist.
Whether the widely publicized allegations will have any effect or not on the Jalisco election results remains to be seen. Repeating the commonly heard
accusations in the state that both the PRI and PRD parties are tainted by narco-connections, PAN supporter Maria Rizo contended that her party's
"clean hands" made it the obvious choice. However, Silvia Hernandez, a PRI backer and lottery-ticket seller in Guadalajara, said she was not swayed by
the narco allegations. "No matter what they say about him doing this or that, (Zamora's) done a lot of important things in Zapopan," Hernandez said.
PRI Deserters, Feminism and the Cheap Pill Doctor
Two minor presidential candidates, Roberto Campa of the New Alliance Party and Patricia Mercado of the Alternative Social Democrat and Campesina
Party, are doing their best to convince voters to go with their respective options. Realizing a presidential victory is next to impossible, the New
Alliance Party is concentrating on urging voters to cast "one in three" election ballots (for congressional candidates or president) for the PRI
offshoot so it can obtain registration and representation in the new congress.
Mercado, who has battled internal conflicts and funding difficulties, has distinguished her campaign by not hesitating to tackle controversial or
taboo subjects usually avoided by other candidates, including abortion, birth control and drug decriminalization. In a television interview, the
48-year-old feminist admitted she had tried marijuana before, but quickly added the drug was not to her liking. Speaking out against femicide, Mercado
began and closed her campaign in the Ciudad Juarez cotton field where the bodies of eight tortured and raped women were discovered in November 2001.
An independent write-in candidate, Victor Gonzalez Torres, aka "Dr. Simi," is spending bundles of his own cash to win over the voters. Gonzalez is the
owner of Farmacias Similares, a huge chain of generic pharmacies. Gonzalez's expenditures, however, are virtually guaranteed to get flushed down the
proverbial drain since the Federal Electoral Institute does not tally write-in votes for individual candidates. Ironically, "Dr. Simi's" write-ins
will be totaled in a generic category that could include Cantinflas, Elvis, Shakira, the Prince of Wales, and whoever else gets scribbled down.
If Campa and Mercado's parties draw 2 percent of the national vote, they will gain seats in the next Mexican congress. In the likely event that none
of the three major parties has an absolute majority in the congress, Campa or Mercado could emerge as important power brokers in future legislative
battles. Mercado is unworried about not being in the top running this year. "It took the PAN 40 years to get to power," she said on Mexican
television. "We are a political project for the medium and the long term."
Once the election victors are proclaimed, political analysts will have a lot of meat to chew on this year. Observers will be carefully monitoring the
voter turnout rate, which if as low as predicted, could actually favor one political force over another. A Calderon defeat could signal, in part, the
backfiring of negative campaigning techniques prevalent in this election campaign and strikingly similar in style and tone to those perfected in US
politics. On the other hand, a Calderon victory will probably reinforce notions that massively buying airtime and aggressively attacking the opponent
are the paths to success.
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