Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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ILEANA finly a good chance for rain
Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5. GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND
CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI
ON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE.
ILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST
BY THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE
ILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL.
ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO
POSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH
SSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND
INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS
ILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF
ILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.3N 104.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Debra
Super Nomad
Posts: 2101
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Port Orchard Wa./Bahia de Los Angeles BC
Member Is Offline
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Bruce, do me a favor pal?
If it does rain, go stand out in it for me and report back what it feels like? (I forget)
We are having a major drought up here, Seattle has had less rain in Augest since they started keeping records! EVER! Better yet, just when is that
rain supposed to hit?, maybe I can get there in time! 
Mean people suck!
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
Member Is Offline
Mood: Skeptical
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Jeez, Bruce.
I would rather have it translated in your words, spelling and all.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by toneart
Jeez, Bruce.
I would rather have it translated in your words, spelling and all.
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no such luck toneart
Debra I will be up north also so I will probably miss it to.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Debra
Super Nomad
Posts: 2101
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Port Orchard Wa./Bahia de Los Angeles BC
Member Is Offline
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Bruce, can you have a neighbor trap a cup and ship it up for us?
Where up north are you heading, how far?
[Edited on 8-22-2006 by Debra]
Mean people suck!
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Debra
Bruce, can you have a neighbor trap a cup and ship it up for us?
Where up north are you heading, how far?
[Edited on 8-22-2006 by Debra] |
for you I will try
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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this thing is growing and could be our first good storm in 3 years
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-avn.html
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64854
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Bruce, Bob H is looking for you in Ensenada today!
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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I am leaving Mulege at about 9pm today and I will be there at about 9am tomorrow.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Well Bruce your more optimistic than I am. Have a safe trip!!!
[Edited on 8-23-2006 by comitan]
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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