Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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Cold water for Pacific is forecast this summer
| Quote: | Thursday, March 8, 2007
Good-bye El Niño, hello La Niña. Forecasters are seeing a shift in weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean that typically translates into an
especially dry period for Southern California. La Niña is a natural, periodic climate change in which a cooling trend over the Pacific leads to
below-average rainfall in this region.
Orange County could face an exceptionally dangerous fire season. Since July 1, the county has received 1.88 inch of rain – eight inches below normal.
And the National Weather Service says no major storms are in sight.
La Niña can cool local ocean waters during the summer, so swimmers and surfers might find water temperatures in the low 60s or high
50s, rather than the normal high 60s to low 70s. One cautionary note: These same forecasters said an emerging El Niño this winter would bring
above-average rain to Southern California.
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Link
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Mood: Inquisitive
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It doesnt matter if we get ten times our normal rainfall or 1/10. The OC Fire Authority always screams EXTREME FIRE DANGER, closes the hills and sits
around playing cards while they figure out this week's grocery list.
I am tired of having areas closed just because a POSSIBILITY exists that someone could start a fire and they might actually have to do their job.
That's one of the main reasons I'm leaving OC.
As far as the La Nina prediction goes, we'll see if it's as inaccurate as their recently-cancelled El Nino prediction this year.
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
Registered: 10-10-2003
Location: loreto
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how will this weather affect the fishing in baja?? last year being a banner yr will it wain or just drop off to nothing??
jerry and judi
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Hook
As far as the La Nina prediction goes, we'll see if it's as inaccurate as their recently-cancelled El Nino prediction this year.
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El Nino was real  ...That's the reason now given as to why 0 Atlantic Hurricanes
hit the USA last year. He scared them all away…… ....La Nina is
supposed to be an Atlantic Hurricane magnet....We'll see.
I agree on Fire Authority comment. Have a season with no rain: "DANGER!!!" have a season with 3 times the normal rain: "DANGER!!". Have a season
with normal rain: "DANGER!".
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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bajajazz
Nomad
Posts: 386
Registered: 12-18-2006
Location: La Paz, BCS, Mexico
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What is the anticipated effect on hurricanes hitting the Baja peninsula this year? Anyone care to venture a guess?
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Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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Since I haven't yet fixed the roof damage I sustained from Hurricane John I would say there's an excellent chance we'll get hit hard.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
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Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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50-50
just like everything in life. it will or it won't.
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Joelt
Nomad
Posts: 131
Registered: 8-27-2003
Location: Tahoe Nv.
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A few years back when there was supposed to be an El Nino winter I heard a serious report from the national weather service that said that it would
cause either above normal rain fall, below normal rain fall or average rain fall. Also the temperatures would be either above, below, or at normal
temperatures. I think this was the first report I've heard that was right. At least a third of the time. As far as fire in So. Cal. it's supposed to
burn regularly. So if you don't let it burn you are going to have extreme fires. Fire good. Smokey the bear bad.
Joelt
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Alan
Super Nomad
Posts: 1626
Registered: 4-6-2005
Location: Yucaipa, CA/La Paz
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Joelt
As far as fire in So. Cal. it's supposed to burn regularly. So if you don't let it burn you are going to have extreme fires. Fire good. Smokey the
bear bad. |
I would love to let fires burn. I would love to never have to go to another friend's funeral that died fighting these fires but I also know it's just
not going to happen. People will continue to build in "natural" settings and will continue to refuse to remove the vegetation around their house
because it would destroy the "natural" setting which is why they built there in the first place. Yet they will still demand that I save their house
and over the last 30 years I have lost many friend's who were trying to do so.
OCFA is right. It is going to have the potential to be another dangerous year.... regardless of the rain! Late season rains result in heavy grass
crops that eventually die off and produce fast running fires. No rain years result in the heavier fuels losing their moisture and allowing them to
more readily burn with extreme intensity. When we get the winds everything will burn. Fuels seperation doesn't mean much when you have 100'
horizontal flame lengths. Fuel moistures drop rapidly when you have 5% RH. Southern Ca will always have prime burning conditions and when all
conditions (fuels, weather and ignition sources) come together we are going to burn and the fires are going to continue to get larger. I remember as
a kid in the 50's all of our ridge lines had fire breaks that were dozed in every year so we always had a control point. Someone decided that they
were not aesthetically pleasing and hugging trees was more important. Until you are prepared to pave all of So Cal we will have fires, big fires.
The only option currently available to us is to ask people to be fire safe and limit ignition sources in high hazard areas. I am sorry for the rant
but the Esperanza is still too fresh.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Cooer water temps sound fine to me as the word is it is going to be a VERY HOT HOT summer in baja...so cooler pacific temps mean cooler air for us
making it bearable in the summer. Way to go niña...brace yourselves for hurricaine season though...gulp
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Mood: Inquisitive
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Alan
OCFA is right. It is going to have the potential to be another dangerous year.... regardless of the rain!
The only option currently available to us is to ask people to be fire safe and limit ignition sources in high hazard areas. I am sorry for the rant
but the Esperanza is still too fresh. |
Of course OCFA is right.......no matter what the conditions the winter before, they yell FIRE!
And OCFA has come up with another option you didnt mention.......prohibiting the use of public lands by the public. We pay taxes to use the lands we
own. It's another case of losing a freedom because of what MIGHT happen.
We pay them to fight fires when they happen; not to infringe on personal freedom to make their jobs safer.
The losses in the Esperanza fire were unfortunate. But it comes with the job. You know going in that its a dangerous business.
It's like fighting wars for freedom worldwide...........and then turning around and having a police state to live in. What's the point?
BTW, was there ever a conclusion to the investigation into those deaths in the Esperanze fire? Seemed like someone sent those guys into the wrong
place.
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wornout
Senior Nomad
Posts: 595
Registered: 10-24-2004
Location: San Felipe, Baja California
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Mood: No Bad Days
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Well, now that Al Gore has an Oscar, I am sure he will be ready to jump in if it gets bad, after all, he did invent the internet, just ask him.
This Space Available, E-Mail Me If Interested.
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