JZ
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Some possible good news regarding Covid
Sounds overly optimistic, but still.
WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-apri...
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks.
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by
77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from
10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to
the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug
Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild
or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing
Americans to resume normal life.
[Edited on 2-19-2021 by JZ]
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AKgringo
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I hope you are right, but I think April is overly optimistic, especially with the possibility of a mutation that is resistant to the vaccine.
I don't need to see the risk go to zero before resuming a pre-covid life, but I will be paying more attention to the number of cases being
hospitalized rather than the total of detected cases.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Skipjack Joe
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I'm not convinced that the drop is due to herd immunity.
A. The drop has occurred so precipitously. You would expected this herd immunity to climb steadily to match the infection rate. That sounds logical to
me.
B. The suggested herd immunity perfectly coincides with the vaccination. Now that's a mighty coincidence. Too much of a coincidence for me.
There is likely not one cause, but many. Herd immunity, vaccination, end of holidays, greater public awareness and compliance.
I don't like to get political but not having a president telling you it's just a flu all the time probably helped as well. Either way, the Democrats
will probably claim some of the credit. That's just how parties work.
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mtgoat666
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The reasons for improvement:
End of holiday anti-distancing;
Toxic trumpeters gone;
Biden’s competent team on the job;
Vaccine rollout;
Brainwash victims starting to wake up and reject trumpista claims that virus is a hoax or nothing burger.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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pacificobob
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I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind.
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motoged
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.... and recent reduction in transmissions in India is being studied to better understand which factors are at play there.
Don't believe everything you think....
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Skipjack Joe
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Quote: Originally posted by pacificobob  | | I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind. |
I agree
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John Harper
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Maybe it's that "miracle disappearance" that the "former guy" was always predicting?
John
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BajaBlanca
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JZ thanks for sharing! May you be so so so right.
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motoged
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Perhaps he will clear that up after March 6th or thereabouts 
Don't believe everything you think....
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motoged
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"Pray for what you want....work for what you need"
Following basic known guidelines of masking and distencing is "work" .... keep your eye on the long game.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/19/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
Don't believe everything you think....
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BornFisher
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| Quote: Originally posted by pacificobob | | I'm thinking the drop in cases has to do with more people doing what they should be doing. you know... like countries that are compliant with
suggested guidelines. new Zealand comes to mind. |
I see fewer masks these days especially in Mexico on Sundays!
New Zealand has an easier time with border security.
"When you catch a fish, you open the door of happiness."
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cactuspete1970
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Vaccine centers are replacing testing centers. Remember test less and it will go away.
DRINK BLEACH!
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pauldavidmena
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The NY Times, which is notoriously skeptical of any positive Covid-19 news, reported a similar trend just this past week. They attribute the change to
a post-holiday dip in risky behavior, but also to the ramp-up in vaccinations and increased compliance due to people believing "there's light at the
end of the tunnel".
My workplace, meanwhile, reported 3 new positive cases in the past week, totaling 37 out of around 1000 employees. 3.7% is a little higher than the
2.9% positive test rate for Barnstable County, possibly because some employees need to be on-site to do their jobs, but also because many Cap Codders
feel as if the risk is fairly minimal. I agree with that in principle, but minimal isn't zero!
I too think April is optimistic, especially since I'm not likely to be vaccinated until early summer, but getting back to something near normal seems
a dream come true.
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JZ
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Florida handled this the best of any state. I went there twice last year. Visited Tampa, Orlando, Key West, and Daytona. Most everything was open.
Masks reqired and distancing.
Schoolls open since August. They have about the oldest population in the US. All this and they are still below the national average deaths/million.
[Edited on 2-20-2021 by JZ]
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pacificobob
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yes! we all have so much to learn from Florida's cutting edge forward thinking.
the list of amazing features things and people that are Florida is an example the whole world should notice.
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JZ
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| Quote: Originally posted by pacificobob | yes! we all have so much to learn from Florida's cutting edge forward thinking.
the list of amazing features things and people that are Florida is an example the whole world should notice. |
You sound drunk. Take your chitty attitude to another thread. Thanks in advance.
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msawin
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Lost a good friend night before last, with his battle with the virus. My next door neighbor in Tripui. Here in the hospital in Yuba City, Ca
Numbers are good, but chits still here..
RIP Poncho
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