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Whale-ista
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Update: this post is an FYI only. It is not an attempt to convince anyone, change any minds or force any change in personal behaviors (formerly known
as "New studies: Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries")
Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/science/sea-level-rise-glo...
The worsening of tidal flooding in American coastal communities is largely a consequence of greenhouse gases from human activity, and the problem will
grow far worse in coming decades, scientists reported Monday.
Those emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing the ocean to rise at the fastest rate since at least the founding of ancient
Rome, the scientists said. They added that in the absence of human emissions, the ocean surface would be rising less rapidly and might even be
falling.
The increasingly routine tidal flooding is making life miserable in places like Miami Beach; Charleston, S.C.; and Norfolk, Va., even on sunny days.
Though these types of floods often produce only a foot or two of standing saltwater, they are straining life in many towns by killing lawns and trees,
blocking neighborhood streets and clogging storm drains, polluting supplies of freshwater and sometimes stranding entire island communities for hours
by overtopping the roads that tie them to the mainland.
Such events are just an early harbinger of the coming damage, the new research suggests.
“I think we need a new way to think about most coastal flooding,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, the primary author of one of two related studies released
on Monday. “It’s not the tide. It’s not the wind. It’s us. That’s true for most of the coastal floods we now experience.”
In the second study, scientists reconstructed the level of the sea over time and confirmed that it is most likely rising faster than at any point in
28 centuries, with the rate of increase growing sharply over the past century — largely, they found, because of the warming that scientists have said
is almost certainly caused by human emissions.
They also confirmed previous forecasts that if emissions were to continue at a high rate over the next few decades, the ocean could rise as much as
three or four feet by 2100.
Short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change
The issue can be overwhelming. The science is complicated. We get it. This is your cheat sheet.
Experts say the situation would then grow far worse in the 22nd century and beyond, likely requiring the abandonment of many coastal cities.
The findings are yet another indication that the stable climate in which human civilization has flourished for thousands of years, with a largely
predictable ocean permitting the growth of great coastal cities, is coming to an end.
“I think we can definitely be confident that sea-level rise is going to continue to accelerate if there’s further warming, which inevitably there will
be,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of ocean physics at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in Germany, and co-author of one of the
papers, published online Monday by an American journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In a report issued to accompany that scientific paper, a climate research and communications organization in Princeton, N.J., Climate Central, used
the new findings to calculate that roughly three-quarters of the tidal flood days now occurring in towns along the East Coast would not be happening
in the absence of the rise in the sea level caused by human emissions.
More Reporting on Climate Change
The lead author of that report, Dr. Strauss, said the same was likely true on a global scale, in any coastal community that has had an increase of
saltwater flooding in recent decades.
The rise in the sea level contributes only in a limited degree to the huge, disastrous storm surges accompanying hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy.
Proportionally, it has a bigger effect on the nuisance floods that can accompany what are known as king tides.
The change in frequency of those tides is striking. For instance, in the decade from 1955 to 1964 at Annapolis, Md., an instrument called a tide gauge
measured 32 days of flooding; in the decade from 2005 to 2014, that jumped to 394 days.
Flood days in Charleston jumped from 34 in the earlier decade to 219 in the more recent, and in Key West, Fla., the figure jumped from no flood days
in the earlier decade to 32 in the more recent.
The new research was led by Robert E. Kopp, an earth scientist at Rutgers University who has won respect from his colleagues by bringing elaborate
statistical techniques to bear on longstanding problems, like understanding the history of the global sea level.
Based on extensive geological evidence, scientists already knew that the sea level rose drastically at the end of the last ice age, by almost 400
feet, causing shorelines to retreat up to a hundred miles in places. They also knew that the sea level had basically stabilized, like the rest of the
climate, over the past several thousand years, the period when human civilization arose.
But there were small variations of climate and sea level over that period, and the new paper is the most exhaustive attempt yet to clarify them.
The paper shows the ocean to be extremely sensitive to small fluctuations in the Earth’s temperature. The researchers found that when the average
global temperature fell by a third of a degree Fahrenheit in the Middle Ages, for instance, the surface of the ocean dropped by about three inches in
400 years. When the climate warmed slightly, that trend reversed.
Interactive Graphic
How Much Warmer Was Your City in 2015?
Interactive chart showing high and low temperatures and precipitation for 3,116 cities around the world.
OPEN Interactive Graphic
“Physics tells us that sea-level change and temperature change should go hand-in-hand,” Dr. Kopp said. “This new geological record confirms it.”
In the 19th century, as the Industrial Revolution took hold, the ocean began to rise briskly, climbing about eight inches since 1880. That sounds
small, but it has caused extensive erosion worldwide, costing billions.
Due largely to human emissions, global temperatures have jumped about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since the 19th century. The sea is rising at what appears
to be an accelerating pace, lately reaching a rate of about a foot per century.
One of the authors of the new paper, Dr. Rahmstorf, had previously published estimates suggesting the sea could rise as much as five or six feet by
2100. But with the improved calculations from the new paper, his latest upper estimate is three to four feet.
That means Dr. Rahmstorf’s forecast is now more consistent with calculations issued in 2013 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United
Nations body that periodically reviews and summarizes climate research. That body found that continued high emissions might produce a rise in the sea
of 1.7 to 3.2 feet over the 21st century.
In an interview, Dr. Rahmstorf said the rise would eventually reach five feet and far more — the only question was how long it would take. Scientists
say the recent climate agreement negotiated in Paris is not remotely ambitious enough to forestall a significant melting of Greenland and Antarctica,
though if fully implemented, it may slow the pace somewhat.
“Ice simply melts faster when the temperatures get higher,” Dr. Rahmstorf said. “That’s just basic physics.”
[Edited on 2-23-2016 by Whale-ista]
[Edited on 2-27-2016 by Whale-ista]
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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SFandH
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Just heard on San Diego morning news that this February is on track to be the warmest February in San Diego since records started being kept in 1875.
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oxxo
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Oh this should be good! 
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DavidT
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The ship can't be sinking, my side just rose 100 feet.
David
Not one shred of evidence supports the notion that life is serious.
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David K
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News flash: the earth will be just fine with or without us. Like the other animals on this planet, we can adapt to the changes. Thinking we can stop
the natural change is quite hysterical.
I am still waiting to see any rise in the sea level where I grew up (since 1957) or where I have camped since 1965. I can still go to the same beaches
in Baja and Alta California. The beach shape may be different as sand moves but the sea level is still the same.
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Whale-ista
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I'd appreciate discussion based on other research reports vs personal observations. This is a global concern.
I suspect the next few years in Baja will be interesting as hurricanes, heat and high water continue at above normal pace. Some benefit, such as
sport-fishing. Others won't be so lucky.
Large and small scale development has taken place along the pacific coast based on "normal" tide ranges. Let's see how various new projects, such as
the La Bocana cabins in Blanca's town, hold up.
Blanca has reported the foundations are already underwater at high tide. How many other communities are seeing similar changes?
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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bajacamper
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Ah yes, the chicken little's otra vez..
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David K
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I welcome anyone from around the world to post a photo of a fixed structure, rock or tree or whatever that was visually just above average high tide
30-50 years ago (or any date) with the same structure, rock or tree today (or the past few years) during a normal high tide in order to compare.
Physical proof of a higher ocean.
Either the ocean is rising or it isn't, at least any amount that can be noticed. Over millions of years, the sea has been both higher and lower than
it is today. I am not saying sea levels do not change... I just dispute they change enough in one lifetime to be noticed or actually cause an issue.
Erosion of cliffs and sand happens without sea level change.
Now, some regions are sinking... and that is also normal as the earth's plates slide under/over each other. Pacific islands also sink... that is where
atolls came from. So, unless Southern California (where I live) and the east coast of Baja (where I camp) are both rising the same rate as the ocean,
the ocean is not higher.
Breakwaters, boat launch ramps, North Island Naval Base, etc. would be underwater!
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Whale-ista
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I think this is what you're looking for.
There are too many before/after images to post here, but follow this link for examples of what you requested.
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.ph...
Quote: Originally posted by David K  | I welcome anyone from around the world to post a photo of a fixed structure, rock or tree or whatever that was visually just above average high tide
30-50 years ago (or any date) with the same structure, rock or tree today (or the past few years) during a normal high tide in order to compare.
Physical proof of a higher ocean.
Either the ocean is rising or it isn't, at least any amount that can be noticed. Over millions of years, the sea has been both higher and lower than
it is today. I am not saying sea levels do not change... I just dispute they change enough in one lifetime to be noticed or actually cause an issue.
Erosion of cliffs and sand happens without sea level change.
Now, some regions are sinking... and that is also normal as the earth's plates slide under/over each other. Pacific islands also sink... that is where
atolls came from. So, unless Southern California (where I live) and the east coast of Baja (where I camp) are both rising the same rate as the ocean,
the ocean is not higher.
Breakwaters, boat launch ramps, North Island Naval Base, etc. would be underwater!
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\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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bajaguy
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What if the sea is not rising??? Maybe the land is sinking.....
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TMW
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I haven't seen any rise in the water level around here.
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TMW
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According to the chart the sea level should have risen 4 inches where David's tree is.
ttp://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.ph...
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durrelllrobert
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What about the El Nino effect on the tides
None of the scientific reports that I've read don't even mention the El Niño.effect on king tides and land erosion because these can't be attributed
to man made climate change. Here's what NASA Science has said about this:
Topography
Currents and tides influence topography, as does temperature. Water expands as it gets warmer, and the lack of cold water dependent nutrients make it
less dense. This expanded, less dense water results in a rise in sea level, observable from space. Ocean surface height may rise as
much as 6 to 13 inches above normal in some ocean regions during an El Niño.
Even though El Niño. mainly affectes the Pacific Ocean there are also similar conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic
Intertropical Convergence Zone oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Together with El Niño these systems are believed to be responsible for
well over fifty percent of the climate variability on Earth according to NASA.
http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ocean-earth-system/el-nino/
Bob Durrell
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bezzell
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Everybody knows (except the scientists!) that the oceans on this spinning planet act just like the rubber ducky in my bathtub!  
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David K
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Great photo of erosion, Frank. Note the sea is far below the damage.
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | . I am not saying sea levels do not change... I just dispute they change enough in one lifetime to be noticed or actually cause an issue. Erosion of
cliffs and sand happens without sea level change.
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You dispute rigorous measurement by scientists. You dispute surveyors and engineers involved in shoreline engineering. You dispute anecdotes of
people all over the world reporting higher high tide effects on their property. *********
[Edited on 2-24-2016 by BajaNomad]
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Gonzo
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Hold on to your wheaties kids
Another we're all gonna drown story and another cherry pick by an alarmist author. Of course he highlights Annapolis, MD for flooding. It also happens
to be sinking 7mm a year as are most of Chesapeake Bay area cities. Here's a hint don't build/develop on soft sandy soil next to the ocean. Not
mentioned are the 38 NOAA tide gauges on the West Coast,British Columbia and Hawaii that show only an average of 1.16mm ± .72mm of sea level rise and
show no increase in level of rise. BTW if you included Alaskan tide gauges sea levels in the Eastern Pacific basin would show sinking as Alaska is
rising due to glacial rebound.
[Edited on 2-23-2016 by Gonzo]
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Gonzo
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What is sea level?
Here's a nice video precursor on how complicated measuring sea level really is. But they don't want you to know this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4
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mtgoat666
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SpeAking of sprinklers, i really like the hunter mp rotators. I used to use that home depot el cheap stuff, but since i found mp rotators, been
digging the irrigation , no pun intended.
[Edited on 2-24-2016 by BajaNomad]
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mtgoat666
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Well, the polar bear and disappearance of arctic sea ice is a related issue the layman can understand and empathize with,...
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