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Author: Subject: Update: this post is an FYI only. It is not an attempt to convince anyone, change any minds or force any change in personal...
Gonzo
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shocked.gif posted on 2-23-2016 at 04:41 PM
Glacier apology


After reading this report I do indeed owe SFandH and apology.

"The hot dry seasons of the past few years have caused rapid disintegration of of glaciers in Glacier National park. Prof W.G. Waterman of Northwestern Univ declared in an address before the Geological section of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Sperry Glacier has lost one-quarter to two-thirds of its ice in the past 18yrs. If this rapid retreat continues the glacier would disappear in 25yrs, the professor noted."

OOOOOOOOppsssss that was written in December 1923!!!!!

Sorry I hope that isn't considered a "trigger warning" if it is I apologize in advance:lol:
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SFandH
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 04:59 PM


Hey Gonzo, let's move on to a different but related question. Why do you not believe the majority of the world's scientists? Do you think they are honestly mistaken or do you think they are being dishonest when they say anthropogenic global warming and subsequent sea level rise are occurring?

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by SFandH]
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wessongroup
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 05:05 PM


Here's something to review ... for some

Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales

Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002–2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y2) are offset by a negative hydrological component (−0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by co-estimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to −2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

http://www.pnas.org/content/113/6/1504

To be published by the National Academy of Science ... a paper and/or report must be submitted for "peer" review

This report was and did pass peer review

Oh, btw ... the Ocean is a pretty big thing to measure all components at the same time using sampling techniques which will afford one accurate and/or meaningful scientific results ... no argument from me on that aspect of this discussion

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by wessongroup]
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Gonzo
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 05:21 PM


Well ok. In science you should have a testable hypothesis. As Feyneman said "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with the experiment, it's wrong."

So just where is the testable experiment? We gotta wait 100yrs? No silly my computer model says we're all gonna die if we keep burning fossil fuels. Well who supplied the data for your computer model? Well I did of course! Did you include clouds? No! We don't really understand cloud formation and our computer models don't handle clouds very well at all. How about naturally occurring ocean circulations such as El Ninos/LaNinas? Not so much those either. What about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation? Do you include those? Well no, were still trying to understand those as they were only discovered in the mid 1990's. So even without those integral parts of our climate system you think we're all gonna die in 100yrs? Yeah. Trust me!

You get my drift?
cheers

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SFandH
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 05:48 PM


Ok it sounds to me like you think the majority of the world's scientists are honestly mistaken, maybe even incompetent. Is that correct?

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by SFandH]
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Gonzo
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 06:05 PM
Real environment damage


On a side note all around good guy Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe applied for a billion or two of climate change reparations from the Paris climate accords:lol:

There's alot real damage going on in the world. we should stick to the obvious stuff ie...clean water, industrial overfishing, sewage treatment (tijuana river valley comes to mind). Stuff that actually affects peoples lives today and not 50/100yrs from now and especially not based on a computer simulation.

Heres a great story about illegal fishing. Maybe they'll come to the Sea of Cortez next?

http://news.yahoo.com/sea-shepherd-hunting-last-world-most-n...
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 07:12 PM


The "testable experiment" is on going ...

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/Grace/#.Vs0Q4cftK5B

By our Government and many others

Agree that "immediate" health and environmental concerns should be address too ... along with keeping track of what is going on ... for our long term existence on the planet

Just makes sense to me ... same as logging and studying what happens in traffic accidents ... murders ... poverty ... et al
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 07:33 PM


I am sure glad Einstein or Aristotle did not read this forum.... The world would still be flat and apples would be floating.
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 08:17 PM


Einstein would've demanded climate alarmist modelers understand cloud formation/effects before announcing the end of the world.

Here riddle me this: what happens when the atmosphere gets warmer? Water evaporates! That forms clouds! What does that do?
It blocks sunlight! And that cools the planet! Shocker. But you knew that? Right? :O
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 08:18 PM


After extensive review of both sides of the coin, I find that I more closely agree with the idea that this has become pretty much a political issue and the science that keeps suggesting Global Warming (oops, they renamed it Climate Change) is very dependent on a persons political perspective. The science is terribly flawed and depends on very questionable data that has been torn apart and refuted by those on the other side of the spectrum. So those with a liberal bend tend to think the world is in some imminent danger and are willing to go to great lengths to alter what they see as an immediate danger. Those who view the world in a more conservative position tend to write most of the data as being very flawed and dishonest in the findings. It is too bad that common sense can not rule here and accept that there are things in the natural scheme of things which we can not understand, but also we would think that we should be able to trust scientists to be objective and non prejudicial in their findings. But with the Climate Gate findings after the scientists came under scrutiny, we are again reminded that it may be more politics that science.
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 08:20 PM


Global Warming...so called ....is pure BS and the Pols who sell it for their own benefit need to be sent packing or worse.

BB
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 08:31 PM


Quote: Originally posted by rts551  
I am sure glad Einstein or Aristotle did not read this forum.... The world would still be flat and apples would be floating.


Geeeze I know the Earth is round but apples don`t float anymore? I remember way back in the day, we would put apples in a bucket of water and try our best to bite them.
But I`m glad Aristotle and Einstein had the chance to correct their contemporaries!!!




"When you catch a fish, you open the door of happiness."
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 08:50 PM


Yes, pescador. Deniers will keep on denying and others will keep on looking at the data. While not many are saying its the end of the Earth, there are quiet a few that say we aught to take care of it and not ignore our impacts.
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 09:42 PM
The Sea on a High ?


One theory is that it's all those Plastic Water Bottles raising the Level.

Which makes a LOT more sense than the other possibility that ongoing construction in Alien Colonies below the Ocean Bed are displacing the water upwards.

While BOTH are entirely Plausible, the Former seems a Bit more likely. Obviously, somebody should start actually counting all of those Containers rather than simply estimating.

Once we have a firm count, we'll know a LOT more and can develop a workable plan.


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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 09:46 PM


Quote: Originally posted by rts551  
Yes, pescador. Deniers will keep on denying and others will keep on looking at the data. While not many are saying its the end of the Earth, there are quiet a few that say we aught to take care of it and not ignore our impacts.


don't we have freedom of religion? The Deniers (non believers) have every right to voice their (non) belief.
Just a reminder - which part of science we believe to be true has changed over the centuries. Our grandkids might shake their heads about what many think is true today.
Per definition - science is always limited. Limited to what we know (or think we know) today.

Yes, it seems like it's getting warmer. Some glaciers are melting. Are we involved? Possibly. How much? Who knows. Can we change it all back? A distant maybe. We are not really good at making nature do things.

Remember our efforts to make rain? Right.

Plus, nobody want's to sell less cars, Sell less oil. Nobody seriously wants to reduce CO2. I know, some politicians have promised. But you and I know what happens when they open their mouth.

Can't we just blame it on Obama?

Now, why are so many of our new priests (scientists) working for the apocalypse religion?

When you say you need to study the possibly devastating effects of global whatever, there will be a lot of research money, a good job for you. And after 5 years and 10 million spent, you publish an alarming report with a lot of possibly, maybe, may, could etc - indication further studies are needed. Give me another 10 million.

For the scientist voicing that he sees no problems, thinks the planet is just fine - no job for that ignorant dude.




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Gonzo
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 09:48 PM


BillM I think you nailed it on the head! Good night now:cool:
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[*] posted on 2-23-2016 at 10:54 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Gonzo  
bezzell you do know that Arctic sea ice has nothing to do with sea level? Right?


Please tell me you're not referencing the 'ice cube in a glass analogy', right? Pretty pls? :D
So you didn't read the blog link (admittidely 'just' a blog)
okey dokey

hopefully you deniers are right! But the data implies otherwise, unfortunately.
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BajaNomad
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2-23-2016 at 11:11 PM
wessongroup
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[*] posted on 2-24-2016 at 01:26 AM


"For the scientist voicing that he sees no problems, thinks the planet is just fine - no job for that ignorant dude. "

That individual might wish to make applications with: Dow, DuPont, Bayer, Dutch Shell, BP ... et al

They are usually in the market ... but, it will depend on what one brings to the "table", so to speak :):)
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[*] posted on 2-24-2016 at 06:50 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Gonzo  
After reading this report I do indeed owe SFandH and apology.

"The hot dry seasons of the past few years have caused rapid disintegration of of glaciers in Glacier National park. Prof W.G. Waterman of Northwestern Univ declared in an address before the Geological section of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Sperry Glacier has lost one-quarter to two-thirds of its ice in the past 18yrs. If this rapid retreat continues the glacier would disappear in 25yrs, the professor noted."

OOOOOOOOppsssss that was written in December 1923!!!!!

Sorry I hope that isn't considered a "trigger warning" if it is I apologize in advance:lol:


You need to consider the industrial revolution started en masse in the 1800s---lots of coal and wood being burned for industry and homes for an ever increasing population. Not saying GW is necessarily as pandemic as the 97 percent say but let's remember our excess CO2 emissions didn't start with the Model T( in fact, one scientist at Caltech years ago surmised that the reason the earth's climate has been so stable for the last 10,000 yrs was that our population had grown large enough to affect it via slash and burn agriculture, Native Americans constantly burning the prairie, etc. and that the extra CO2 floating around had somehow stopped some of the climactic gyration seen in the previous 90,000 years...just conjecture of course).
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wessongroup
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[*] posted on 2-24-2016 at 07:28 AM


Pretty big factor Mexitron ... population

The increase in the big three: population, oil consumption and CO2 .. respectively

Population growth



http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/



http://www.api.org/statistics/



http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Anyone notice any similarities in the graphic representations of: population growth, use of oil and the empirical findings of CO2 content in Ice Core samples covering a period of around 650,000 years

Always fun to talk about the weather ... :):)

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by wessongroup]

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by wessongroup]

[Edited on 2-24-2016 by BajaNomad]
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