ftrphb
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Hurricanes in October?
What are the odds of an October hurricane in Baja?
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surabi
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Kind of an odd question. How would someone know that? Rainy season is still in full swing with storms moving up the Pacific mainland coast, which can
develop into hurricanes, which often move towards Baja.
If you asked the odds of a hurricane in January, the odds would be about zero, but Oct.is anyone's guess.
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4x4abc
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strong possibility
Harald Pietschmann
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surabi
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You really can't count on any consistent weather patterns anymore since climate change has escalated.
I've lived on the mainland near PV for 20 years and you used to be able to count on the rains being over by the first or second week of Oct. Then it
got dry and consistently sunny, with maybe a week or two of cloudy weather and the odd rain shower in January.
In the past few years, it has rained into November, sometimes with hurricanes and flooding. And now it sometimes rains again in Dec. or March,
whatever. The winter nights have also gotten much colder. I can only recall one winter in my first 15 years here where it got quite cold after the sun
went down, it was an anomoly. And that only lasted for a few nights. Now it can be quite cold at night consistently for a couple of months straight in
late Dec., Jan. and Feb.
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BooJumMan
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Not an odd question at all. Lets look at a subset from the last 15 years. You can look up any year of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season fairly
easily, with each storm documented on Wikipedia. Many years will show some sort of tropical depression, storm or hurricane making landfall in Baja in
October.
This year we have COLD waters along the Baja California western shores, as well in the "hurricane makin' happinir'" zone off Oaxaca. This has been a
trend for several months, so it was already assumed we'd have a less active season this year. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ss...
In fact, a tropical system is shown to be hitting Baja mid October. (Yes, the forecast models out near 180hr+ are not always spot on, but they show
overall trends very well).
[Edited on 10-1-2024 by BooJumMan]
[Edited on 10-1-2024 by BooJumMan]
In that pre-Google Earth and social media epoch, The Code was adhered to. It was based on a simple verity: if a locale had been transformational for
you, and you had put the hard yards in to get there and to learn it, to know it, why in god�s name would you broadcast the news, thus ruining the
future experience not only for yourself, but for future adventurers?
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JZ
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Quote: Originally posted by surabi  | Kind of an odd question. How would someone know that? Rainy season is still in full swing with storms moving up the Pacific mainland coast, which can
develop into hurricanes, which often move towards Baja.
If you asked the odds of a hurricane in January, the odds would be about zero, but Oct.is anyone's guess. |
Not an odd question at all for someone not familiar with Baja. He's not asking for some exact number, just a general idea. E.g. does hurricane
frequency slow down once you leave Summer.
My answer is late October the probability gets pretty low. Great time to be out of the Sea of Cortez hoping between islands and bays. Still need to
watch the forecasts.
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mtgoat666
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probability of hurricane in october is about half the probability of hurricane in september.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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Lee
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Cabo hurricanes typically run mid-May to late November. Predicting weather is an imprecise science, generally. Takes very little rain to flood
streets from SQ to LP.
If I knew a hurricane was coming, I'd be driving North.
US Marines: providing enemies of America an opportunity to die for their country since 1775.
What I say before any important decision.
F*ck it.
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RFClark
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The current forecast shows nothing through mid-October and the water around BCS has started to cool off!
On the Pacific side nighttime temperatures are running in the mid-70s to the high 60s. (Long time locals 30 years+) say this summer has been unusually
cool! Rain so-far at the beach has been 1.5”!
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SFandH
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The peninsula has escaped major storms this season (so far). I imagine it is rain starved.
The season is pretty much over in a couple of weeks.
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Udo
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Totally true!
| Quote: Originally posted by SFandH | The peninsula has escaped major storms this season (so far). I imagine it is rain starved.
The season is pretty much over in a couple of weeks.
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Udo
Youth is wasted on the young!
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BooJumMan
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2-5C colder than "average" pretty much all summer.
The hurricane that the long range forecasts were showing has pretty much fizzled out. Only looks like some rain around the tip now.
In that pre-Google Earth and social media epoch, The Code was adhered to. It was based on a simple verity: if a locale had been transformational for
you, and you had put the hard yards in to get there and to learn it, to know it, why in god�s name would you broadcast the news, thus ruining the
future experience not only for yourself, but for future adventurers?
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wiltonh
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You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now. If it
were on the Gulf side it would be all over the news but the US weather men do not report on storms that are going to become hurricanes very often if
they are in the Pacific.
[Edited on 10-6-2024 by wiltonh]
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by wiltonh | | You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now.
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Hurricane season goes thru end of November…
Patience, grasshopper.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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Cancamo
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One of the worst to hit BCS hammered CSL in I believe '72, December!
October can be active. Many Insurers won't insure vessels south of Loreto until December.
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surabi
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| Quote: Originally posted by wiltonh | You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now. If it
were on the Gulf side it would be all over the news but the US weather men do not report on storms that are going to become hurricanes very often if
they are in the Pacific.
[Edited on 10-6-2024 by wiltonh] |
There is a big tropical storm moving up the mainland Pacific coast. We had a deluge of rain last night, and supposed to be the same for the next few
days. Coming from a system presently called 99e. The trajectory shows it heading straight for Cabo. Of course, it could break up and be a nothing
burger or develop into a hurricane.
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mtgoat666
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Here we are in mid-November, and hurricane season is almost over - and with no major storm for Baja peninsula this year.
I guess that is good for avoiding damage,… but maybe bad for ecology that relies on hurricanes, eh?
This anthropogenic climate change is making for an odd world…
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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RFClark
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Goat,
The ecology of BCS relies on more than Hurricanes! Unreported by those forecasting the end of the world is the number of rain storms coming down from
the north. The most recent of which occurred Sunday November 3rd. We followed it down from north of the 28th to San Ignacio. Past that there were a
number of rain events in the mountains south of La Paz this year. Everything is still green!
I realize that an eyewitness account is not as reliable as a computer model but it’s the best that I can do!
Also the temperatures along the Pacific Coast of BCS have been quite cooler than normal. But again that just the opinion of those living here all
their lives not a computer model from someone who has never been here!
[Edited on 11-15-2024 by RFClark]
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