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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
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Mood: gone fishin'
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should i trade dollars for pesos now??
wondering what thoughts are out there on this.
i just traded dollars for pesos this morning and the rate was 9,880
yesterday the pemex traded 9,5 to 1 dollar
the dollar is going down against the peso
pretty much all of my expenses are in pesos.
should i trade a lot of dollars right now or what? i'm no financial expert but don't want to see all my hard work from this summer go to crap if the
dollar takes a dive.
gracias for your input.
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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I suppose it depends on your time horizon. The dollar will come back especially with a new administration in the White House. It will take some pain
and suffering before the dollar becomes strong, though. Well, that's my opinion.
Zac
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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It's a bad time to speculate. Just go day to day and stay away from the cambios. They seem to charge two percent for peso buying transactions and
more for peso selling.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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It's always a good time to speculate. just know what you are doing. the Peso is controlled by a select few in Mexico and many have access to the info
of what it is going to do next. imagine if you new what the rate would be in one week and had a lot of money to play with, you would be a wealthy
person or at least well off. it happens every day in Mexico on large and small scales. you Win if it goes up and you win if it goes down.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
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Mood: gone fishin'
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well was just in front f the computer and going back on the run again.
i'm gonna watch it close this week and try to factor our upcoming expenses through late january. i'll convert all that to pesos. i know impoprted
goods from the usa will stay pretty much in line with the peso but those paying in dollars will take a hit.
we do it through the bank never the caas de cambios. some folks that came in on the LAX flight on thursday said they were exchanging the peso at 9 to
1 at the casa de cambio in the airport. yikes, that's already a 10% loss for us!
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bancoduo
Banned
Posts: 1003
Registered: 10-3-2005
Location: el carcel publico mazatlan sin.
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The peso is waaaaay overvalued. I'm with DENNIS.
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Bajajorge
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2604
Registered: 10-13-2005
Location: Topaz Lake, NV/San Felipe
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When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip. I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no
larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida. When in Baja I only
deal in pesos, but when I walk into a place that is still dealing 11 to 1, I pay in US.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip. |
I remember when that was a comfortable amount to carry but, today that's dinner and gas not to mention a mere downpayment on the mordida scale.
Maybe you should pump up the kitty, Jorge....just to be sure.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip. I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no
larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida. When in Baja I only
deal in pesos, but when I walk into a place that is still dealing 11 to 1, I pay in US. |
tell us where this 11 to 1 place is 
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
Member Is Offline
Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajajorge
........I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida. ........ |
Shame on you, George!!!!!!.....you know better than to pay mordita.........use your "gold card" instead 
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maspacifico
Nomad
Posts: 317
Registered: 4-22-2008
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I'm in the same boat but not sure whether buying lots of pesos is ever a good idea. Yen or Euros should hold up better, but thats pretty hard to use
in Loreto! As long as the US government keeps bailing everyone out, and playing world policeman, our dollar will just keep falling, and neither the
Republicans or Democrats will do what it takes to make it right without really taking a stand.....and if they take a stand, they won't get elected. I
read somewhere that each US family owes $500,000 to the national debt right now. Short term bandages for big problems just delaying the inevitable.
The way concrete and rebar are going up, maybe put your money into those!
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
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Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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No worries.......I just stick my card into an ATM and out pops pesos. I live it up when it's anything over 10:1 and drink more Pacifico when it's
anything below 10:1
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
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Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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Since I live full time in Baja, and all my income comes from the US in dollars, I watch the exchange rate carefully. I have seen my cost of living
in Mexico increase by over 10% in the last year as the result of the falling dollar....and that doesn't even factor in inflation within the Mexican
economy.
However, I have not hit the panic button yet. The dollar will come back eventually, but it may not have bottomed out yet either. Therefore, caution
is advised in making speculative long term committments with expendable dollar income.
Exchanging pesos into dollars on a regular basis, just enough for 2 week expenses or one month of expenses, for example, is a financial strategy
called "dollar cost averaging." It evens out your loses over the long term if the dollar is falling. Conversely, it evens out your gains if the
dollar is increasing in value. It is a financially conservative approach to income and money management. I am generally financially conservative by
nature, although I do speculate in various investments from time to time.
I do not favor exchanging a bunch of dollars into pesos at this time, specualting on what the future might hold. That is similar to being a day
trader in the futures market in the NY Stock Exchange - very risky and the potential road to ruin......unless you are an insider.
Here is what I see in my crystal ball. I think the dollar may continue to fall perhaps to the mid 9's, at the official rate, over the next couple of
months. After the US Presidential elections - whether Rep or Dem victory - the dollar will bounce back to above 10, maybe as high as 10.5 (on the
higher side with a Dem victory). Then as reality sets in and we see the same old crap from the politicians from both parties, then the dollar will
fall again to around 10 or high 9's (where it is now). I think it will stabilize there for maybe 2 years and then gradually rise again to the levels
we experienced last year. We will then be able to see what has been accomplished by the new administration in Washington and adjust the projections
accordingly at that time.
I will continue to change dollars into pesos about every two weeks during this future period if my scenario holds true. I may purchase some short
term CD's at Boncomer (an international bank) with dollar accounts that are currently paying about 6% with a 60 day maturity.
Disclaimer: I have no insider information. Everyone should do whatever they feel is prudent for themselves. What works for me may not necessarily
work for you. I do have some credentials, education, background, and experience in this area but that does not necessarily make me more qualified to
speak with authority on this subject than anyone else. Caveat Emptor!
!Suerte!
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maspacifico
Nomad
Posts: 317
Registered: 4-22-2008
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oxxo,
Much better advice than mine, though I still think concrete is a "buy". I hope you are right about a two year comeback for the dollar but I think the
financial bailouts are going to bury us. My numbers about the national debt were inflated. A family of 4 "only" owes $120,000. My $500,000 number
came from total debt in the US per family of four.........since I read that, it has gone up to $700,000.
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by maspacifico
As long as the US government keeps bailing everyone out, |
Quite true, for example Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. What is wrong with this picture: Investors in Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae have earned a return on
their investment in the past, yet when those same investors are faced with current losses the governement bails them out! So, an investment with
returns and no losses guaranteed by the governement. SWEEEEEET!
| Quote: | | and playing world policeman |
I wonder if each US citizen were told that US military intervention would cost them $1,000 per month each - man, woman, child - I wonder how long
those various military interventions would last.
| Quote: | | neither the Republicans or Democrats will do what it takes to make it right without really taking a stand |
Actually, the Clinton administration did leave the Bush administration with a balanced budget. Unfortunately, Bush will not be doing the same for the
administration that follows.
I guarantee you that I hate paying taxes more than anyone else on this Board....and I pay a lot. However, the only way to get the US back on sound
financial footing is massive tax increases in the future or massive cuts in programs like the military and social services (including freezing SocSec
increases and I do receive SocSec.). I favor a strategy with a little of both - some tax increases with some cuts in programs. Which presidential
candidate has the cajones to do that?.....perhaps neither!
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Clinton...... I did not have sixxual relations with that woman
[Edited on 8-2-2008 by Bruce R Leech]
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Clinton...... I did not have sixxual relations with that woman
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Bush.....Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq.......4000 plus US military
dead
Clinton and Bush both made lieing, reprehensible statements. Which did the most harm?
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elizabeth
Senior Nomad
Posts: 742
Registered: 7-30-2004
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by oxxo
| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Clinton...... I did not have sixxual relations with that woman
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Bush.....Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq.......4000 plus US military
dead
Clinton and Bush both made lieing, reprehensible statements. Which did the most harm? |
That was just a rhetorical question, right?!!
I do have a question about your financial strategies. Why the Bancomer cd's in dollar accounts...and not some in peso accounts? I am seriously
clueless about investing...and I need to start getting some clues should I desire a future!
edited for spelling
[Edited on 8-2-2008 by elizabeth]
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maspacifico
Nomad
Posts: 317
Registered: 4-22-2008
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Bruce,
That will always stick with Slick Willy, and I was peeed off when he lied about it...........but in retrospect what did it really cost you and I other
than the impeachment fiasco? Take a look at our deficit counter and tell me which lie you want to be told. No head from a chubby girl.......or WMD?
And, I believed Bush!
http://www.deficitsdomatter.org/
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Political affiliations and religious affiliations are based on some sort of wierd inner brain wiring that defies understanding.  Some folks handle snakes and some folks believe whatever the last news anchor told
'em. The common denominator is "snakes".
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