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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Latest from noaa
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NOW SHOW ONE DISTINCT EYEWALL SO THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN COMPLETED. THERE HAVE
BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A BIT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HERALDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
SOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE NORBERT TO WEAKEN MUCH
BEFORE LANDFALL. A FASTER DECREASE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE
SHEAR INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WEAKENING MIGHT NOT BE
FAST ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...SO A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL.
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCLERATED A BIT TO ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW DUE TO STEERING
FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST...THERE WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF NORBERT BUT
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
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LaTijereta
Super Nomad
Posts: 1192
Registered: 8-27-2003
Location: Loreto
Member Is Offline
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Loreto Calm...
Listening to Jack Johnson on the patio, smoking cigars and drinking Barcardi..
Democracy is like two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.
Ben Franklin (1759)
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cabobaja
Nomad
Posts: 363
Registered: 9-19-2006
Location: South \"O\", Elias Calles, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Smiling
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9:21, starting to rain in Elias Calles. Wind gusts 20-25 knots (estimate). 400 yds
from the surf.............cannot see it, but sure can hear it.
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vgabndo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3461
Registered: 12-8-2003
Location: Mt. Shasta, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Checking-off my bucket list.
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Good Luck to all.
The latest shifts to the south seem to have put San Nicolas' on the fringe of the worst of it. Still, it was just a Tropical Storm that slappd the
snot out of us last month! I'll be anxious to hear from Mulege in terms of precipitation.
Snow flurries in Mt. Shasta today, and sounds like a hurricane outside!
Undoubtedly, there are people who cannot afford to give the anchor of sanity even the slightest tug. Sam Harris
"The situation is far too dire for pessimism."
Bill Kauth
Carl Sagan said, "We are a way for the cosmos to know itself."
PEACE, LOVE AND FISH TACOS
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Have a safe night and thanks so much all of you posting on sight reports. I hope to hear from you in the morning but I have my doubts we'll all have
services tomorrow. It will be a very long rough day for many of you...please take very good care...love you guys! I'm goin mimilolo now so hast mañana
amigos quieridos.
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norte
Super Nomad
Posts: 1163
Registered: 10-8-2008
Member Is Offline
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finally. some people from Mexico
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Brianinloreto
Newbie
Posts: 11
Registered: 8-24-2008
Location: SF Bay area/Loreto
Member Is Offline
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Hopefully everyone has a safe night. Hang in there amigos.
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BigWooo
Senior Nomad
Posts: 579
Registered: 1-2-2007
Member Is Offline
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Got up to check the intermediate report they're supposed to issue at 11:00 pm to make sure it's going where they said. In San Juanico it's still
nearly dead calm, wind out of the NNE at 2. No rain, no visible lightning on the horizon, no moon.
Pressure is still the same 1004mb.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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I'm surprised there is NO wind here. What I read this am Norbert has strengthened a bit and they mention it could hit the mainland as a hurricane.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Just while I was taking a pic of my weather station the wind started up. have 15mph as I type. Baro is steady
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by Russ]
Sorry it's early
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by Russ]
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Bob and jane
Nomad
Posts: 272
Registered: 3-25-2004
Member Is Offline
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6 am Loreto. Hot and muggy. Winds are still not very strong. No rain yet. Supposed to hit us as a category 1 later this morning. Waiting for the
sun to come up.
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
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another picture...6am
here on the bay in mulege a little wind (10mph)
clouds
NO rain last night at all
oh yea...i hate rain
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by Bob and Susan]
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bill erhardt
Super Nomad
Posts: 1372
Registered: 4-2-2005
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
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6:00 a.m. in Loreto - light wind, maybe 10 knots, out of the south. No rain yet. Can't see the beach that is about 100 yards, but can hear the surf.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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La Paz 6AM Wind from the south 10-12. waiting!!!!!!!!!
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Just while I was taking a pic of my weather station the wind started up. have 15mph as I type. Baro is steady
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by Russ]
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BigWooo
Senior Nomad
Posts: 579
Registered: 1-2-2007
Member Is Offline
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I know in San Juanico we're a ways from the hurricane, but we should have some wind by now. Still nothing at 6:15 am. No rain either even though
we're under some of the darker bands on the satellite image.
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by BigWooo]
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Just received this from Baja Insider:
Hurricane Norbert is currently located near near 22.6N 112.3W and motion is 20° at 13kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 964Mb and winds
are 90kts with gusts to 110kts. Norbert is now expected to make landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane just south of Magdalena Bay after dawn this
morning. It is also likely that Norbert will still be a hurricane when it emerges into the Sea of Cortez near Loreto tomorrow afternoon.
Hurricane force winds extend out 35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 140 miles. Norbert's eye is approximately 30 miles in
diameter.
As a Category 2 Hurricane, Norbert stands to be one of the most powerful hurricanes to make landfall on Baja Sur since Hurricane John tore up East
Cape in 2006. Let's be careful out there folks!
~~~I hope "when it emerges into the Sea of Cortez near Loreto tomorrow afternoon." is a misprint!!! ~~~
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by Russ]
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Katiejay99
Nomad
Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: it is what it is
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6:26am very windy in TS - rain coming in sheets and then letting up very intermittent. At this second it is pouring - 5 minutes ago it was very light
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CaboRon
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3401
Registered: 3-24-2007
Location: The Valley of the Moon
Member Is Offline
Mood: Peacefull
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Woke up to rain this morning .... Fairly heavy with pounding surf.
Last night the Festival went on as planned ....
Met a dozen returnies .... Many come back for the festival ...
And a good concert going also ...
We are hoping all of this mishegas is over for the crowning of the queen tonight !
Right now the rain and wind is steadly picking up and the first leaks are showing up in the roof ...
Looks like a movie day .....
CaboRon
spelling
[Edited on 10-11-2008 by CaboRon]
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
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for us simpletons...
mishiga=great water
you artist guys in todo santos must speak a different language 
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