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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
| Quote: | Originally posted by lencho
| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there. |
Man, I can't imagine any company in its right mind insuring such a risk. Well, I guess for high enough premiums it would be a safe gamble, but then
who could afford it?
--Larry |
actually Larry the cost is very low for this insurance .
I have learned that some insurance co. will not insure houses that are not totally closed in. this would include many houses along the river as
totally closed in is not very practical here in Mulege. |
Bruce, I read somewhere that this type of flooding only happens every 100 years or so. Maybe that's why the insurance is available.
Bob H
The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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Don Alley
Super Nomad
Posts: 1997
Registered: 12-4-2003
Location: Loreto
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Hook, my apologies if my earlier post suggested you were "trolling."
Years ago as a Trout Unlimited activist, they had me take a graduate level course on rivers and floodplains, I was on a state team that wrote and
monitored the rules for riparian area logging, lobbied legislationon rural floodplain sewage treatment, etc etc, so I have a history of getting
involved in trying to tell people what they shouldn't be doing in flood plains and it often becomes contentious.
Now Mexico is a different place, but two things to consider. One is that there is no government flood insurance. And as we learned in June with many
home owner policies canceled without warning, homeowner insurance down ther may not be reliable. I'll bet the companies balk at insuring Mulage homes
on the river. Second, the health department may be a factor. Okay, now I'm rigging with my steel leader....no, I'm not going to say it... somebody
else will, maybe.
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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No worries, Don.
I guess, in a sense, I was trolling for info...... but not a confrontation.
I also wasn't aware that Sharks had lost a home until after I posted this. Must have overlooked it or maybe confused by his board name and his real
name. His reaction is understandable.
I think Cypress' reply might have gotten this discussion off on the wrong foot. But the mentality he describes does exist; that was my conditional
agreement. It just doesn't seem like that mentality exists along the river; the gringo residents seem mostly like retired blue-collar people.
I really do feel this is a legitimate discussion that needs to be conducted. Maybe an outsider like me was not the best person to instigate it,
though. I'm just a Mulege/S.R. area wannabe......but my job is still preventing that.
Now, I am wondering about the bridge. Has the Mexican Govt. conducted an engineering analysis to determine whether it is sound? Just because it is
standing doesn't mean it hasn't been compromised. That was a lot of water.
[Edited on 9-12-2006 by Hook]
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Baja Bernie
`Normal` Nomad Correspondent
Posts: 2962
Registered: 8-31-2003
Location: Sunset Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Just dancing through life
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Bruce
Even if one had insurance would this not be classified as an act of God by the insurers?
My smidgen of a claim to fame is that I have had so many really good friends. By Bernie Swaim December 2007
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Baja Bernie
Even if one had insurance would this not be classified as an act of God by the insurers? |
what isn't an act of God?
God bless you all
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bob H
| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
| Quote: | Originally posted by lencho
| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there. |
Man, I can't imagine any company in its right mind insuring such a risk. Well, I guess for high enough premiums it would be a safe gamble, but then
who could afford it?
--Larry |
according to the records this type of flood or larger can be expected every 30 years. we were 20 years overdue for this one.
actually Larry the cost is very low for this insurance .
I have learned that some insurance co. will not insure houses that are not totally closed in. this would include many houses along the river as
totally closed in is not very practical here in Mulege. |
Bruce, I read somewhere that this type of flooding only happens every 100 years or so. Maybe that's why the insurance is available.
Bob H |
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by jerry
hea sharks perhaps you could update your Relief fund figures on your site?? |
Sure Jerry, let me get through my corporate taxes which are due the 15th. Most donors are Nomads FYI.. people who care.
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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It seems as tho this would be a decision that will have to be made by each and every homeowner who lost their home and no one really has the right to
say they should or shouldn't, since we are in Mexico and their are no laws against rebuilding in a flood plane I think Sharks would say you take your
chances. And as far as a 100 year storm mother nature could very easily make it a 2 year storm
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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Amazing resemblence to questions being asked about rebuilding New Orleans. I suppose resale will take a large hit but it wont last forever. The
American buyer chooses to forget unfortunate events. The Punta Banda expropriatin debacle is evedince of that.
Later .... Dennis
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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comitan has nailed it! No excuses etc. You want to talk about storms? Katrina put the storm surge up to my family home's front door steps. We lucked
out. Next time?
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Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
Member Is Offline
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Good Discussion:
If I may, I would like to direct you South for just a Bit> 1976 La Paz/Loreto.
This time Mulege.Every 30 Years???
Look at the Arroyos all along the Road, we are going to have storms.
I waited two weeks to Cross at El Rosairo-The very long Bridge had Water going over its Top, near San Quintin Trucks were buried with nothing but
their Exhaust Pipes Showing.
In some of myPosts right after Loreto Bay Villages Opened, I ask the Question" What will Happen if Loreto gets Hit like "Lisa in 76"//
What I am trying to say --"Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Take a Risk.
We cannot go through Life with out suffering a Loss or Two and remember; It is only Marterials-Hopefully not Life!!!!
I would rebuild in A Minute! Mulege is Beautifull-I chose Loreto because there is a few less Bugs.
Skeet/Loreto
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cat127
Junior Nomad
Posts: 50
Registered: 7-23-2006
Location: Hawaii
Member Is Offline
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We live in "Lava Zone 1" and the tsnuami zone - the only insurer is Lloyd's of London.
-Cat
Fate Smiles as Destiny laughs!
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PovertyBay
Newbie
Posts: 17
Registered: 7-22-2005
Member Is Offline
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“What I am trying to say --"Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Take a Risk.
We cannot go through Life with out suffering a Loss or Two and remember; It is only Marterials-Hopefully not Life!!!!”
This sentiment almost perfectly encapsulates the dilemma of human perception and thought regarding natural hazards, including flood hazard. It is
admirable to adopt an adventurous outlook, but what is missing is some judgment about the amount of risk being undertaken, and the consequences if the
risky event should occur. For example, most of us wouldn’t consider walking across a busy freeway, but we might be willing to stroll across a quiet
street in a small town. In the former case, it is very likely that we will be struck by a vehicle and, as a consequence, be killed as a result of a
high-speed impact. In the latter case, it is unlikely that we will be struck and, even if we are, the risk to life is small because of the likelihood
of low impact speed. Similarly with flood hazard, in different meteorologic and geologic settings, the likelihood of a damaging event varies, and the
danger to life and property varies in terms of depth and velocity of flows, presence of large debris, etc.. With regard to the likelihood of
occurrence a flood, it should be noted that this is a rather random phenomenon. That is, in any given year a flood is just as likely to occur as it
is in any other year. A 100-year flood is not, as often believed, something that occurs once in 100 years, with the result that we don’t have to
worry about such a flood for another 99 years if one just occurred. In fact, a 100-year flood is one which has an annual probability of occurrence of
one in a hundred, and the statistical odds of one 100-year flood occurring during a 100-year time period are approximately 2 in 3. The point is that
we humans tend to forget that this risk exists each and every year, despite the fact that a gully washer hasn’t occurred in recent memory. Then there
is the issue of consequences. In some settings, the occurrence of a rare flood event doesn’t create extreme hazard to humans – velocity is low,
depths are shallow, etc.. In other settings, the occurrence of an extreme flood can generate conditions that are virtually certain to pose high risk
to life and property. In the case of New Orleans, for example, a condition (however rare or unlikely) causing a levee to be overtopped or to breach
was virtually certain to lead to disastrous loss of life and property.
There are two facets to the dilemma faced by the lay person. The first is the tendency to overlook or forget about flood hazard. The second is the
lack of knowledge about either the annual risk or the severity of the hazard. In many areas of the world, the technology and expertise exist to
define the probability and severity of flood risk, and to communicate this information to the public. The U.S. is particularly fortunate in this
regard, thanks in large measure to FEMA, despite their often negative public image. In developed countries, policy is developed by regulators to
limit or not allow development in areas where floods are highly likely to occur and where very dangerous conditions would result from their
occurrence. This approach has been taken precisely because the average citizen is often unable or unwilling to determine the nature of the hazard and
act to avoid it.
In lesser developed nations, the knowledge of flood hazard is rarely available to citizens, or is not highly refined, being based largely on
anecdotal evidence. This lack of knowledge makes it virtually impossible to develop and enforce effective policy that could prevent placing humans at
risk. The net result, then, is that in communities such as Mulege, individuals must make their own judgments about what the risk of flooding is, and
what the nature of the damage is that they might suffer, then decide for themselves whether or not they are willing to take that gamble. In summary,
“nothing ventured, nothing gained” is a fine philosophy, providing the individual understands what is being “ventured.”
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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Not too many idiots
around Mulege who don't realize the potential there or so many other places. It's a known fact of life there.
No, I would not raise my children in a flood plane. Yes, I lost a gamble. Humbling but not ending.
You don't walk across freeways anyway, you run because you DO know the ramifications of being slow,
Would this assessment be true for any gulf state that faces storm surge. That is a diffrent animal than runoff.
I guess if your not somewhat of a gambler, then stay out of the game. This could go on and on........................
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Sharksbaja
around Mulege who don't realize the potential there or so many other places. It's a known fact of life there.
No, I would not raise my children in a flood plane. Yes, I lost a gamble. Humbling but not ending.
You don't walk across freeways anyway, you run because you DO know the ramifications of being slow,
Would this assessment be true for any gulf state that faces storm surge. That is a diffrent animal than runoff.
I guess if your not somewhat of a gambler, then stay out of the game. This could go on and on........................ |
I think you have it figured out Corky
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Baja Bernie
`Normal` Nomad Correspondent
Posts: 2962
Registered: 8-31-2003
Location: Sunset Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Just dancing through life
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Look around you and see how many Mexicans share you desire to build in flood plains.
My smidgen of a claim to fame is that I have had so many really good friends. By Bernie Swaim December 2007
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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Unfortunately
| Quote: | Originally posted by Baja Bernie
Look around you and see how many Mexicans share you desire to build in flood plains. |
Many.
They just don't reside in the Gringo enclaves as we do.
They reside in the valley west.
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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PovertyBay
Newbie
Posts: 17
Registered: 7-22-2005
Member Is Offline
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Sharksbaja
Storm surge is no different than riverine flood risk. Whatever the physical processes involved, there is an annual risk of occurrence of the
associated hazard, and a means to predict the associated dangers for humans. The technology for predicting storm-surge hazard is approximately as
well developed as that for riverine flood hazard.
I can understand that Bangladeshis are so desperate for survival that 500,000 of them who tried to squat on islets of the Ganges River disappeared in
the cyclone of 1970, and a further 140,000 of them who tried to re-inhabit the area disappeared in the cyclone of 1991. They were/are desperate.
This desperation might even apply to Mexicans in poverty in Mulege in 2006. Are you saying that others who ignore the risks are equally desperate,
are unaware of the risks, or simply don’t care?
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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Thought he made it pretty clear, PB
He considers it an ACCEPTABLE risk. It's a concept that anyone who lives or travels in Baja is familiar with.
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PovertyBay
Newbie
Posts: 17
Registered: 7-22-2005
Member Is Offline
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Do you suppose that the citizens of New Orleans thought they were faced with an UN-ACCEPTABLE risk, pre-Katrina?
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