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Don Alley
Super Nomad
Posts: 1997
Registered: 12-4-2003
Location: Loreto
Member Is Offline
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I think when we see the word "investment" in real estate sales pitches our ears perk up.
You may think that in such transactions only the buyer and seller are legitimate "interested parties." And that does seem to be the way things are
done around here, where "due diligence" has been defined solely by those out chasing a buck, with no real consideration for long term social,
environmental or economic conditions.
Almost everyone in Loreto has or will suffer some negative impacts from the Loreto Bay boondoggle.
| Quote: | | I would think that someone that was going to spend $600,000 would not be stupid enough to do so based on a post in the forum. |
Right. I think you need at least a pretty website. And for the really careful buyer, a Big Name that you can trust.
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drzura
Nomad
Posts: 320
Registered: 7-1-2006
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This sounds like another Loreto Bay scam. I think Don Julio needs to go drink some more of his tequila..
[Edited on 6-7-2009 by drzura]
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Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
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With over 30 years being in Baja Calif. I have a strong suggestion!
Go to Baja, LEASE do not buy at this time.
If you just have to use your money I would suggest you try the Hill country of Texas, Billings Montana, or the Houston Area South.
Hold on and then about ten years from now sell and put it in Baja if you Must.
Skeet/Loreto
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
Member Is Offline
Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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Sorry Skeet, but I don't think Real Estate is a good deal north of the border either right now. I am convinced that the bottom of the market won't be
seen until at least late next year. Everybody seems to be ignoring the ARM's that are going to hit a critical point in time mid 2010 and are predicted
to add millions to the already record numbers of foreclosures.
I think anybody with property for sale today and who listed too high or worse yet - turned down an offer will be having some serious second thoughts
come this time next year.
YMMV
[Edited on 6-8-2009 by BajaGringo]
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tripledigitken
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4848
Registered: 9-27-2006
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
Sorry Skeet, but I don't think Real Estate is a good deal north of the border either right now. I am convinced that the bottom of the market won't be
seen until at least late next year. Everybody seems to be ignoring the ARM's that are going to hit a critical point in time mid 2010 and are predicted
to add millions to the already record numbers of foreclosures.
I think anybody with property for sale today and who listed too high or worse yet - turned down an offer will be having some serious second thoughts
come this time next year.
YMMV
[Edited on 6-8-2009 by BajaGringo] |
BG,
Please post here when it hits bottom.
Thanks
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tripledigitken
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4848
Registered: 9-27-2006
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Skeet,
I think your suggestion to buy selected real estate now with a ten year horizon is sound advice. I would say the same applies for the stock market.
Very few pick the bottom.
Ken
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capt. mike
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8085
Registered: 11-26-2002
Location: Bat Cave
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sling time!
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if you think the recent residential market has had turmoil.....just wait until what is about to happen in commercial property notes occurs.....big
time trouble....no money to handle the notes coming due, the fundamentals on rental investment properties, commercial buildings office and multifamily
are tanking with cap rates imploding....it is about to become a bank REO & buyers freefall.....
formerly Ordained in Rev. Ewing\'s Church by Mail - busted on tax fraud.......
Now joined L. Ron Hoover\'s church of Appliantology
\"Remember there is a big difference between kneeling down and bending over....\"
www.facebook.com/michael.l.goering |
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
Member Is Offline
Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by tripledigitken
BG,
Please post here when it hits bottom.
Thanks |
I have no crystal ball Ken but I do listen to those who seem to have been right on in predicting the current state of affairs long before anybody saw
an end in sight to the "boom". Adjustable mortgages are going to hurt the market badly - all you need to do is be able to read a graph...
The California budget crisis that will inevitably lead to large numbers of layoffs / salary cuts for so many state employees will certainly push this
deeper. I really don't see any way it can be avoided. I know that you are much smarter than I am so please tell me how this is all a bunch of BS.
I sincerely do hope I am wrong and would love for somebody to convince me...
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tripledigitken
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4848
Registered: 9-27-2006
Member Is Offline
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I didn't say i was smarter than you. People smarter than you and I are betting their money that the economy will improve. Pull up a chart and see
the 30+% return in the market averages since March of this year.
Problem with your graph is that it assumes no improvement to the economy. That may be right it may be wrong. I'm not going to try and predict that.
Certainly I can have an opinion different from yours can't I? By you own admission you have been out of the stock market so you missed that little
correction.
Operative message in Skeet's advise................10 year horizon. Even with your graph turning out to be correct.....his advice would still be
sound advice.
Just one man's opinion.
Again, please let us know when it hits bottom. Because in my experience I have never been able to do that precisely.
Saludos,
Ken
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
Member Is Offline
Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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Re-reading my last post I see that I do sound quite sarcastic and that wasn't my intention Ken - just the opposite. I am not that smart at forecasting
economics which is why I have learned to listen to those who accurately forecast the "unpredictable" current state of affairs. If I was good at this
stuff Ken, I would have done a lot of things different over the last 20 years and could easily have had a lot more money to work with today.
Getting out of the market when I did was gut feeling more than anything else and it is one of the few "smart" moves I have made.
Actually, it was probably more just simple luck...
One thing I am doing though is applying some simple old common sense. I have asked the question before and have yet had anybody give me any kind of
answer proving me wrong. It can be extrapolated further in this discussion:
Global Economy = Global Standard of Living = Global Real Estate Values
It seems ridiculous at first to even consider such a thing as it goes completely against everything we have known up to now but yet I can't create a
model in my mind to avoid it in the long run. I think there will always be the "haves" and the "have nots" and there will be choice chunks of land
that are worth more than others. The difference IMHO is that we are moving toward a global model where this will not happen regionally as in the past
but on a global scale.
That is what will hold the US economy down from any serious recovery I believe. I can't see any product or service that the USA can build or provide
to compete on a global scale and offset the onslaught of foreign imported goods and services. With the current debt burden it seems like an
insurmountable challenge at this point.
Bottom? Who knows? The only thing I feel for sure is that this certainly isn't it, and that is based on common sense more than anything else. In the
coming months and as the graph above play out, it will become more clear as to what will happen. I took the time to do a few searches on google and
found lots of folks who understand this a lot more than I do who seem to agree.
I'll make you a deal - I will bookmark this thread in my Outlook Calendar for next year and then bump it. If I am wrong, I will be the first to say
so.
I actually hope I am - I have a grandson living in California and would like to think his future prospects will be as good as those I was fortunate to
enjoy...
Sorry if you took my post the wrong way - I do appreciate and value your opinion Ken.
[Edited on 6-8-2009 by BajaGringo]
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Marie-Rose
Senior Nomad
Posts: 894
Registered: 10-2-2003
Location: Victoria, B.C. and Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: Worried...
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Wow... I've been scrolling down and can't believe lasvegasron... oops, bajaron...has not had any great comments
Remember, when in Mexico, yes may be no and no may be
maybe!
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dtbushpilot
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3288
Registered: 1-11-2007
Location: Buena Vista BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Tranquilo
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Thank goodness this post got hijacked and everyone got off of Donjulio's back. You guys really went after him just for posting real estate for sale in
the correct place. Jeeeeese, the guy is just trying to make a living, lighten up.
I agree with you julio, anybody with $750,000 in disposable investment income these days is probably savy enough to know how to check out a possible
investment opportunity.
Sorry my Nomad bretheren went after you, hope they don't come after me now......dt
"Life is tough".....It's even tougher if you're stupid.....
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Von
Senior Nomad
Posts: 961
Registered: 10-1-2006
Location: Poway-Rosarito
Member Is Offline
Mood: getting ready!
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Hey are they seeling property here or selling Don Julio Tequila?
READY SET.....................
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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Ron. You have it about right. Unless world war three breaks out, we are going to seriously deal with a global economy. That include the fact that the
USA is not going to necessarily dictate any of the terms. As a country, we've been living in a fool's paradise. International corporations only
consider what is best for them and their shareholders. they have absolutely zero patriotism. Folks, get over it.
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Bronco
Nomad
Posts: 168
Registered: 12-1-2007
Member Is Offline
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PASSSSSSSSSS ON IT!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOU GOTTA BE KIND'IN ME, US, THEM,
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Bronco
Nomad
Posts: 168
Registered: 12-1-2007
Member Is Offline
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YO DONJULIO
| Quote: | Originally posted by Donjulio
Well it is a tough crowd but that doesnt really concern me too much. I have been doing real estate in Mexico for 10 years and have been involved in
$17,000,000 in closed sales and so far nobody has lost a property yet. So......
With $17mill in commissions -BUY IT YOURSELF!!
[Edited on 6/9/2009 by Bronco] |
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GeoRock
Nomad
Posts: 329
Registered: 3-7-2003
Location: Mammoth Lakes, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always have one
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Captain Mike and Baja Gringo are both right in their economic assessments. Hold on to your pants, it's going to be a long ride.
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capt. mike
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8085
Registered: 11-26-2002
Location: Bat Cave
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sling time!
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well.............i can tell you the ride down this flume has crippled me severely.
gonna take a long time to get back to wherever i was...and i'm not sure just where that was to tell you the truth.
the Zepps said it best....Good Times, Bad Times...
what i would kill for would be a place on the east cape like close to dt....when those become good bargains.....well i can wish right?!
formerly Ordained in Rev. Ewing\'s Church by Mail - busted on tax fraud.......
Now joined L. Ron Hoover\'s church of Appliantology
\"Remember there is a big difference between kneeling down and bending over....\"
www.facebook.com/michael.l.goering |
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dtbushpilot
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3288
Registered: 1-11-2007
Location: Buena Vista BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Tranquilo
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Hey mike, if they become bargains I'll upgrade to something bigger and you can come down and hang out. Right now it seems that every third place is
for sale but the prices are still where they were 2 years ago.....and the places are still for sale.....and will be for quite a while. I'm guessing
that most folks that have property down there aren't hurting yet.....dt
"Life is tough".....It's even tougher if you're stupid.....
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
Member Is Offline
Mood: Skeptical
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As an amateur real estate"investor"
I was lucky. I got out, not because I correctly identified the apex of the bubble, but because it was the right time in my life. I didn't want to work
it with all the diligence that is necessary in order to succeed. I just want to fish and fart in Baja Sur.
I do keep a watch on current events, including the real estate market, just to make sure I wasn't a dumb s**t, and to be able to gloat. My cerebral
indicators aren't very optimistic about a recovery any time soon. I think BajaGringo's graph is too optimistic.
My gut doesn't tell me anything because it is no longer involved in anything but the pursuit of culinary delight. I hate it whenever I err in that
endeavor. 
With apologies to DonJulio, in my retirement I am perfecting the philosophy of Nihilism. 
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