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Purdyd
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I’m sorry, I see it is gnukid who is dredging up old stuff.
He appears to like this website but it seems to imply covid is increasing death rate
https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
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European mortality bulletin week 14, 2020 Link to printable version The latest pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network show a marked increase in
excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This overall excess mortality is driven
by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64
years.
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RFClark
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The percentage of people who die from a disease is based on the number who get it but recover and those who don’t. To date there has only been one
study done where both numbers were known. It was done in Germany. They tested an entire town. That study showed that a full 15% of the town’s
population had antibodies to COVID19. That was 3X what the people conducting the study anticipated.
What this means, if it holds up for all of Germany and other places, is a death rate not awfully different from the worse types of flu. Europe seems,
outside of Germany, to have a very high death rate. If as the study indicates far more people have had mild cases, it reduces that rate to 1/3rd.
Australia and New Zealand both have extremely low death rates both under 1% with similar populations to the European countries with the very high
rates. Could that be because they have done a better job of tracking and testing meaning the cases they’ve found are most of the cases that there
are? Only time will tell.
The true death rate in the U.S. is unknowable until widespread antibody testing is done so quit arguing about how deadly COVID 19 is or isn’t. We
don’t know yet.
Yet another strange result of COVID 19 is that heart attack victims taken to hospitals are down by about 40% overall and 98% in the under 45 age
group. Try and explain that! Europe has seen the same phenomenon!
1.2 million people die each year in the U.S. that averages out to 3000ish a day. Ask yourself how many of those who would have died anyway are now
counted as COVID 19 deaths!
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Purdyd
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https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes...
“ From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower
than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.”
“ To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science
researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit
part of Germany.”
If you read German
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf
[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]
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RFClark
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The point of the German study was to try and get an accurate assessment of the death rate. Which they did show was much lower than advertised! In
Germany it was shown to be a little worse than the flu. As clearly stated 1.2 million Americans currently die each year of the Flu and other things!
There needs to be a study to examine political viewpoint vs. how bad the person thinks this Virus will be!
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BajaNomad
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Quote: Originally posted by Alm  |
This is clinical trial Phase 1. To be followed by "blind" Phase 2 and 3 where patients are randomly given the drug or placebo and the results are
compared. Otherwise it is not clear what effect the drug had on the improved symptoms. Btw Chloroquine has side effects - potentially fatal heart
arrhythmia and damage to eyes and nerve system.
Another thing to remember is that nobody knows how long it takes to recover. In China they had patients tested positive, with symptoms, then
"recovered" in a few weeks and after a few months he is tested positive and with symptoms again. The consensus is that those were not re-infected
with a mutated virus (no immunity after recovery) but a long asymptotic course of disease, 2-3 months.
Stay put for as long you can.
[Edited on 4-12-2020 by Alm] |
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hy...
https://forward.com/news/national/442285/coronavirus-hydroxy...
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
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MrBillM
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Random Mental Masturbation and ...............
With massive verbal Ejaculations that aren't going to change even a tiny thing.
Selectively theorizing, citing favored statistics and wrapping them in conspiratorial coverings ad nauseam will not affect the path that the
U.S. and other governments have chosen to follow.
With apologies to The Wolfe Tones:
" We're on the one road
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares
North and South and may be victims all
We're on the one road swinging along
Singing a hopeful song "
BUT, every crisis creates its own entertaining conspiracies. Someone should come up with a board game a la "Monopoly".
Something else to do at home.
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Purdyd
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| Quote: Originally posted by RFClark | The point of the German study was to try and get an accurate assessment of the death rate. Which they did show was much lower than advertised! In
Germany it was shown to be a little worse than the flu. As clearly stated 1.2 million Americans currently die each year of the Flu and other things!
There needs to be a study to examine political viewpoint vs. how bad the person thinks this Virus will be! |
It certainly is a more optimistic. Still pretty preliminary and I don’t see any statistics in the population demographics in this bulletin which
can have a significant impact.
The other problem, is people tend to take a while to die, so generally this infection death rates rise over time, unfortunately.
The common figure for the flu is given as .1%. Let us say that is right.
.37% or 3.7 x a little bit worse or a lot worse?
I’ve seen curve matching from the diamond princess into China’s data out it at .6%
Is that a bit worse or a lot worse?
Do you believe the data out of China?
If you think the data out of China is grossly understated but that the data out of the western world is grossly overstated, how do you reconcile those
viewpoints?
I don’t think covid 19 is a nothing burger but.....
The good news is Scientists and models have grossly underestimated the impact of social distancing
The United States has already peaked and we now that other models of social distancing besides China, work, Sweden for instance.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]
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AKgringo
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Ring around the rosy (scarlet fever)
A pocket full of posies (herbal protection)
Achoo... (sneezing)
Achoo...
All fall down! (game over!)
[Edited on 4-13-2020 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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white whale
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| Quote: Originally posted by caj13 |
Because real data matters? Obviously not to some here, and the inability to look at data through a lens of critical thought, thats the big issue.
education matters. Willingness to seek out nd understand - that matters even more.
so some of you need to hurry on and buy Alex Jones Covid proof toothpaste before the dastardly government shuts him down! |
Had to check if the toothpaste was a joke quote or real..... yes he is a nutjob ... great salesman. Rivals 45.
All that crap he sells is how he makes all his money - $.01 sugar pills for a $1.00 is pretty lucrative. So he did try to slip that into the mix. I
wonder if he does it to get the eventual slap down and use that for more marketing purposes "buy it before the deep state takes it away" Or the
eventual part 2, Gov took away my stuff so send in donations to help me expose the truth.
Great clip on YT of John Oliver's LWT on Jones. His main story that week so it's a long piece.
This ain't no party, this ain't no disco, this ain't no foolin' around Life During Wartime
- Talking Heads '79
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BajaNomad
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Thread Moved
4-13-2020 at 11:16 AM |
Purdyd
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The university of Washington model says Sweden will peak in 24 days.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden
If that holds true, that means whatever they implemented for social distancing will reduce the spread of the virus.
The so called rho, or exponent of exponential growth is less than one.
And they will do it without closing businesses and without closing elementary schools.
The deaths per day over the last couple of days have been very low in Sweden’. Edit: unfortunately, it seems Sweden doesn’t report deaths very
well over a weekend, will have to see what happens tomorrow.
In theory other countries could adopt this model at any time and the virus would decrease.
For example, the USA could do it right now.
Yes, time will tell.
Thanks for correcting my typo.
[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]
[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]
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Purdyd
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This is an article which talks about the dance of R, or rho
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th...
I thought this was a bit sensationalist in the amount of deaths and overly optimistic about “a few simple measures” when I first read.
Because there was no real data on the impact of different social distancing methods but that has changed.
“ How does this dance work?
It all turns around the R. If you remember, it’s the transmission rate. Early on in a standard, unprepared country, it’s somewhere between 2 and
3: During the few weeks that somebody is infected, they infect between 2 and 3 other people on average.
If R is above 1, infections grow exponentially into an epidemic. If it’s below 1, they die down.
During the Hammer, the goal is to get R as close to zero, as fast as possible, to quench the epidemic. In Wuhan, it is calculated that R was initially
3.9, and after the lockdown and centralized quarantine, it went down to 0.32.
But once you move into the Dance, you don’t need to do that anymore. You just need your R to stay below 1: a lot of the social distancing measures
have true, hard costs on people. They might lose their job, their business, their healthy habits…
You can remain below R=1 with a few simple measures.”
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BajaNomad
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BC Governor's office Twitter and FB feeds are being kept busy with updates... fyi.
Here's an update from today on the # of confirmed cases/deaths in BCN.
https://twitter.com/Jaime_BonillaV/status/124981347208847360...
https://www.facebook.com/JaimeBonillaValdez/videos/216668612...
44 new cases today in BCN.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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RFClark
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The measures to keep “R” less than 1 may be simple to state, however that does not mean that they are without a real cost of their own. A cost not
only in money but in actual dead and maimed human beings. There is a Law of unintended consequence the dimensions of which are impossible to know in
advance! While there is no guarantee that a brief interruption won’t change society beyond our understanding, there is a certainty that the longer
the interruption the more likely and the greater the magnitude of that change will be.
You need look no further than the aftermath of the two world wars to see examples of this in action. Anyone who thinks this is not as major as a world
war is kidding themselves. None of this is to say that the changes will be either good or bad, it is to say simply that they will be different and
possibly unimaginable to us just 6 short weeks ago!
This will probably be an “E Ticket Ride”!
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Purdyd
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| Quote: Originally posted by RFClark | The measures to keep “R” less than 1 may be simple to state, however that does not mean that they are without a real cost of their own.!
This will probably be an “E Ticket Ride”! |
Yes, keeping R less than one is simple to state. My major complaint about the article in March was that it claimed we were making decisions without
information on the impact of social distancing and then without that same information claimed it would be simple to keep R low.
At the time we only had China and South Korea as examples I’d low R. And unfortunately, people seem to underestimate what lengths they have taken.
But now we have regions recovering in Europe and other models and data.
We might hope that covid 19 is only 3.7 x worse than the flu.
And every action has consequences, but doing nothing is also an option with unintended consequence.
And politically it covid 19 has been bad enough to spur totalitarian regimes to unprecedented actions.
And as we have seen in Baja, local population will take it upon themselves for action if government ignores this.
But the good news is that social distancing works better than expected.
Sweden might be the model for moving forward.
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mtgoat666
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You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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paranewbi
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.
|
Maybe there's something to be said about living in a style where your packed in like rats.
NY numbers are not numbers that apply to 95% of the rest of us who don't live on top of each other. You can take many individual and exceptional
situations that manifest dire consequences and here we see one on our TV's every night.
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by paranewbi | | Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.
|
Maybe there's something to be said about living in a style where your packed in like rats.
NY numbers are not numbers that apply to 95% of the rest of us who don't live on top of each other. You can take many individual and exceptional
situations that manifest dire consequences and here we see one on our TV's every night. |
You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego
suburb... 
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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RFClark
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It’s beginning to seem that the higher density population centers are having a significantly higher death rate than the less densely populated
adjacent areas. That said there is a 7000 year history of deadly epidemics in cities and those who can moving out to the country during them.
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paranewbi
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | | Quote: Originally posted by paranewbi | | Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.
|
Maybe there's something to be said about living in a style where your packed in like rats.
NY numbers are not numbers that apply to 95% of the rest of us who don't live on top of each other. You can take many individual and exceptional
situations that manifest dire consequences and here we see one on our TV's every night. |
You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego
suburb... |
Your delusional if you think SD has the same crowding as NY goat. In my town of Santee there are 58,000 people and almost nill multi story living
structures. As of yesterday there were 18 cases of covid here (google Covid cases by zip code san diego). There were 16 last week. No Fear between the
ears. What you got going there goat?
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | | Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | | Quote: Originally posted by paranewbi | | Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 | You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.
|
Maybe there's something to be said about living in a style where your packed in like rats.
NY numbers are not numbers that apply to 95% of the rest of us who don't live on top of each other. You can take many individual and exceptional
situations that manifest dire consequences and here we see one on our TV's every night. |
You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other
San Diego suburb... |
ARE YOU SERIOUS GOAT??? Lay off the THC! |
Don’t be blinded by Manhattan densities,... North park, hillcrest, OB, PB, Encinitas all got densities similar to NYC boroughs of Staten island,
queens, Brooklyn, Bronx,...
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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