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Author: Subject: How much further is the dollar going to decline?
verichip
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[*] posted on 4-5-2023 at 06:20 PM


Is there any truth in this video?
https://youtu.be/nsDZomjhJ_Y
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JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 4-5-2023 at 08:36 PM


Quote: Originally posted by verichip  
The US dollar has lost about 10% of it's value, compared to the MX peso. How much further is the dollar goi?g to slide down the hill.


This has been happening for more than a couple years now. I think its more a question of "why is the Peso rising?" The USD has been fairly stable or gaining against a basket of foreign currencies, Mexican Peso is the exception.
For whatever reason, global markets like the outlook for the Mexican economy since just after the onset of Covid, where the Peso took a very rapid big hit against foreign currencies


[Edited on 4-6-2023 by JDCanuck]




A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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mtgoat666
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[*] posted on 4-5-2023 at 09:10 PM


Y’all are George soros wanna bes, gonna make a killing on futures market for pesos, use your crystal ball to get rich

You ever looked at the long term trend of pesos vs dollar?




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HeyMulegeScott
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[*] posted on 4-6-2023 at 09:56 AM


The Mexican economy appears to be in good shape with low unemployment. De-globalization trend could mean more near-shoring of manufacturing in Mexico.
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JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 4-6-2023 at 12:32 PM


Quote: Originally posted by HeyMulegeScott  
The Mexican economy appears to be in good shape with low unemployment. De-globalization trend could mean more near-shoring of manufacturing in Mexico.


I too am seeing a lot of positive news regarding future manufacturing and exports growth expectations out of Mexico. The Tesla mega factory being built comes to mind, along with an EV manufacturing hub supported by large renewable power expansions just south of the border.




A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 4-11-2023 at 06:38 AM


Keep in mind BCS is the most affluent and most expensive place in Mexico, highest wages and highest prices for commodities over the last year.

Peso is up against the dollar though has fallen relative to other LATAM currencies resulting recently in much lower prices on some commodities that are locally produced, such as vegetables in season, cement big bag, labor, fish, meat, down as much as 30%, though intl products are up.

Many shop owners and consumers seem unaware of the significant economic changes in the past month, while other vendors are working fast to drop prices to be competitive. Store to store prices vary greatly.

Mexico often has a weird reaction to economic slow down, increasing prices significantly, reducing staff and basically shutting down businesses.

Snow birds have fled back home to balance their books and clean house, so intl tourism business is down.

While peso is way up from its lows against the dollar over the last 3 years, there are bargains. Consumers need to be very careful shopping, there are some items marked way over priced, 2-3x over the recent months, old out of date overstock, expired products, and general fraud in some stores with computer pricing higher not aligned to marked pricing, which is hard for some people to resolve at the register often resulting in about 20% difference in current prices versus what the computer will spit out at the cashier. Be aware of prices and take a photo of the listed prices and check as the cashier rings up and correct errors in real time.

If you have cash now is a great time to be in Baja, real estate prices are down, rent is down, labor is down and many construction materials are down over the last 90 days. Negotiate.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX rises as dollar wanes; Mexican peso slips after inflation data
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-latam-fx-ris...

The Brazilian real and the Mexican peso have climbed against the dollar as it steamrolls rival currencies this year — but economic and political risks could eat into their gains
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazilian-real-mexican-peso-c...


[Edited on 4-11-2023 by gnukid]
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surabi
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[*] posted on 4-13-2023 at 10:37 AM


"Keep in mind BCS is the most affluent and most expensive place in Mexico, highest wages and highest prices for commodities over the last year."

No, "BCS" is not the most affluent and expensive place in Mexico. Cabo is currently listed as the the most expensive city, but there are other places that are almost as expensive, and the Polanco neighborhood in Mexico city is by far the most affluent area in the country.
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Don Pisto
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[*] posted on 4-13-2023 at 10:48 AM


no argument here just an interesting article........
https://ventured.com/20-richest-cities-in-mexico/




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AKgringo
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[*] posted on 4-13-2023 at 02:37 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto  
no argument here just an interesting article........
https://ventured.com/20-richest-cities-in-mexico/


Interesting! Tijuana and Mexicali are the only Baja cities to make the list, and they are not even in the top ten.




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[*] posted on 4-18-2023 at 08:23 AM


As a former math teacher I would like to point out the illogical presentation of the peso vs. dollar exchange rate graphs. A visually accurate graph would start the peso at zero, not 15, 16, 17 or even 18. You would see that over time, the peso exchange rate has been fairly stable over the last five or so years. It briefly hit an outlier high during the first months of the pandemic but overall has been between 17-21. Significantly higher than 11 or so 2013 and prior.
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liknbaja127
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[*] posted on 4-18-2023 at 05:51 PM


looks to me they will need more! I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.
Glad we are almost done!
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verichip
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[*] posted on 4-20-2023 at 06:45 PM


Why is the Guatemala q at 7.62 like it has been for many years? Never more than and always less than 10% change.
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 4-20-2023 at 07:56 PM


Quote: Originally posted by lencho  
Quote: Originally posted by liknbaja127  
I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.

Ouch.

San Quintin... how much of that stuff is imported from the U.S.?


You don't mention size of bag, you might be confused about price per kilo, cement in general has not gone up, it has gone down.

Here's a chart of mexico cement price showing downward trend, though I understand locally stores will increase prices outside of market, as I mention, be aware of market prices.

Update on Mexico, March 2023
https://globalcement.com/news/item/15507-update-on-mexico-ma...



[Edited on 4-21-2023 by gnukid]
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 4-20-2023 at 08:13 PM


Quote: Originally posted by lencho  
Quote: Originally posted by liknbaja127  
I bought 8 bags cement yesterday, 340 pesos per. 2 months ago was 260. Same with lumber. San Quintin area.

Ouch.

San Quintin... how much of that stuff is imported from the U.S.?


$245 is normal price for 50kg bag in Baja today
https://www.homedepot.com.mx/materiales-de-construccion/ceme...


[Edited on 4-21-2023 by gnukid]
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PaulW
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[*] posted on 4-20-2023 at 08:43 PM


Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 6.86% in March of 2023, the lowest since October 2021, from 7.62% in the previous month and roughly in line with market estimates of 6.9%. Amid a 2.23% annual decline in energy prices, inflation slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (11.01% vs 12.29% in February), housing and utilities (0.63% vs 2.13%), transportation (5.36% vs 6.09%), and restaurants and hotels (11.58% vs 12.01%). In the meantime, the annual core inflation rate remained elevated but fell to a seven-month low of 8.09%, marginally ahead of market expectations of 8.07%. On a monthly basis, Mexican consumer prices edged 0.27% higher, slowing from the 0.56% increase in February. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)
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[*] posted on 4-21-2023 at 09:03 AM


Inflation & devalued currency? Try Argentina. It is a good time to travel there. When we arrived mid-January the exchange rate was 182 pesos per dollar. On the "Blue Market" we got $365+. Now? The official exchange rate is 218 pesos per dollar. Our most expensive dinner, including lovely wine and generous tip was $65 US. This was in the cute popular tourist town of San Martin de los Andes! BTW, don't bother with Buenos Aries - 24 hours is enough, but Northern Patagonia is fabulous!
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verichip
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[*] posted on 4-21-2023 at 02:50 PM


Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?
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JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 4-23-2023 at 12:23 PM


Back to the original topic: I would say it depends how much more inflation and debt is encouraged as opposed to the competing currencies.
For Baja, we get cheaper imports and more trouble exporting cheap products and labourers.




A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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BajaMama
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[*] posted on 4-24-2023 at 01:07 PM


Quote: Originally posted by verichip  
Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?


Hotels about $150 US/night. Did not purchase fast food (because, why? I don't eat garbage in the US either). Gas was under $2 US/gallon. A cross country flying bus ride was about $200 US round trip. Car rental $212 US for 5 days. 8 days guided fishing trip at two different hotels & glamping throughout the National Parks including airport transfer, meals, all the malbec you can drink, all transportation and gear $5792 US for two. Did not grocery shop either. I assume you were over served when you asked this?


[Edited on 4-26-2023 by BajaMama]
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Paco Facullo
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[*] posted on 4-27-2023 at 11:05 AM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
Quote: Originally posted by verichip  
Can you tell us more about the prices of things in Argentina? The price of fast food hotel rooms eggs a cross country bus ride?


Hotels about $150 US/night. Did not purchase fast food (because, why? I don't eat garbage in the US either). Gas was under $2 US/gallon. A cross country flying bus ride was about $200 US round trip. Car rental $212 US for 5 days. 8 days guided fishing trip at two different hotels & glamping throughout the National Parks including airport transfer, meals, all the malbec you can drink, all transportation and gear $5792 US for two. Did not grocery shop either. I assume you were over served when you asked this?


[Edited on 4-26-2023 by BajaMama]


Argentina can be done for 1/2 price , IF you don't use tours and accommodations paid for online, or use an ATM or credit card in the country.
Bring crisp $100 bills and exchange them on the "Blue market"

I was in Argentina in 2017 and 2019, the first time the blue market rate was 30 to 1 then 60 to 1

Now it's 465 to 1 and the official rate is 225 to 1

I'm leaving for Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil within the next month.

GO Bocas !!!!!

[Edited on 4-27-2023 by Paco Facullo]




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