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toneart
Ultra Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by edinnopolo
Is she/he already falling apart |
He. Ivo is masculine, or else she wears G.I. boots. 
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vandenberg
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| Quote: | Originally posted by edinnopolo
Is she/he already falling apart |
Sure appears that way
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MrBillM
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Naming Conventions for the Eastern Pacific
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eastern North Pacific naming follows the same scheme as the North Atlantic, but with its own lists. The present naming system was introduced a year
earlier than the Atlantic system, when List IV was used anomalously in 1978, but List I was used in 1979 in parallel with that in the Atlantic. Names
starting with X, Y and Z were only added in 1985 when the number of storms threatened to exhaust the list and are repeated every two years instead of
every six as very few names begin with X, Y and Z ("Xina" was used in 1985, and "Zeke" in 1992). Hurricane names are retired as in the Atlantic, but
names are more rarely retired as they are rarely damaging; the last hurricane to have its name retired was Hurricane Kenna of 2002.
List 5 (2007)
• Alvin
• Barbara
• Cosme
• Dalila
• Erick
• Flossie
• Gil
• Henriette
• Ivo
• Juliette
• Kiko
• Lorena
• Manuel
• Narda
• Octave
• Priscilla
• Raymond
• Sonia
• Tico
• Velma
• Wallis
• Xina
• York
• Zelda
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_tropical_cyclone_names
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Bob and Susan
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you mean Juliette is back NEXT!!!
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bajajudy
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Ivo has petered out. 
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comitan
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Judy
After that statement I'm going to batten down the hatches. Big mistake it still out there in warm water and IVO must(could) be a womens name.
[Edited on 9-21-2007 by comitan]
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Roberto
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comitan - NOAA would seem to agree with you. They leave a lot of open questions. In addition, even if not a full hurricane (it's now 1 MPH below a Cat
1), it's path could carry a lot of rain into the mountains between the Pacific and Cortez coasts.
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edinnopolo
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Somehow the GFDL computer model seems to have it right on the button this season. They have it/her/him stall off the coast. Too bad ,we can use the
rain.
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vandenberg
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| Quote: | Originally posted by edinnopolo
Somehow the GFDL computer model seems to have it right on the button this season. They have it/her/him stall off the coast. Too bad ,we can use the
rain. |
True
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comitan
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Yes Van sorry to say I'm a real believer in that model, I was hoping for a little more rain.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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John M
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At 2:00 p.m. or so was this
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (AP) — Hurricane Ivo was downgraded to a tropical storm Friday and was expected to continue to weaken as it headed toward
Mexico's Baja California peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
The storm had sustained winds of about 70 mph and was slowly chugging northeast toward Mexico.
Forecasters predicted it would be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression by the time it hit a relatively unpopulated stretch of coastline far
north of the resort of Cabo San Lucas, probably sometime early Monday.
John M
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comitan
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WTPZ42 KNHC 212035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007
IVO APPEARED TO BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL ABOUT 5 OR 6 HOURS AGO...
BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
DESPITE THE NEW CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. A 1356 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
ESTIMATED 50 TO 55 KT WIND VECTORS. BLENDING THE ABOVE ESTIMATES
RESULTS IN LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. WHILE THE
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING
AFTER 12 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND HWRF.
IVO IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
005/5. THE GENERAL TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS COMPLICATED AND SOLUTIONS
FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW WILL HAVE ON STEERING IVO NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS STALL
IVO SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IVO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... BUT AT A SLOWER PACE AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE FSSE
GUIDANCE.
ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.1N 113.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W
GFDL has it now coming across the southern Baja in 3 days?
[Edited on 9-22-2007 by comitan]
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Sunman
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breaking up
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsp2.html
Definitely breaking up....Better than a full force hit...
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bajajudy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by comitan
Yes Van sorry to say I'm a real believer in that model, I was hoping for a little more rain. |
I thought that you would be busy battening down those hatches
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comitan
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Its together enough that if it stays out there in that warm water for 3 days It can build to a hurricane.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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bajajudy
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Ivo Weakens, but Closing on Baja
As of 2 p.m. PDT Friday, Ivo had been downgraded to a tropical storm and was about 300 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Ivo is located near
20.1 north, 113.4 west and is moving to the north at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with gusts to near 85 mph. The estimated surface
pressure is 990 millibars or 29.24 inches of mercury. A strong upper-level trough will be moving eastward toward the coast of southern California
today, and this trough will help pull Ivo northward. This trough also contains strong upper-level winds, which will increase wind shear over Ivo and
cause it to slowly weaken. This has begun over the past several hours with the more northern track and somewhat higher central pressure evident. This
storm will track across the southern Baja Peninsula later Monday as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. Some of Ivo's moisture will
be pulled into Arizona and New Mexico on Sunday into Monday, resulting in spotty showers and thunderstorms over the area. The only other area of
concern is from the remnants of Tropical Depression 13E, now centered close to 16 north, 131 west. Thunderstorms have begun to occur again in the
region and the feature may regenerate if it continues to drift to the southeast as it has over the last 24 hours. By AccuWeather Expert Senior
Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Meteorologist Frank Strait
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comitan
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Judy you take accuweather I'll take NOAA weather GFDL track. as of 2PM. In any case hope it brings us a little rain!
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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bajajudy
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That is interesting.
So you think that it will go south of Baja?
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Roberto
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The southern California trough has fizzled down to nothing. It stalled off the coast and never made it here. Supposedly, some areas in the mountains
MAY get as much as 1/2" of rain. Let's see what happens.
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comitan
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No.
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IVO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... BUT AT A SLOWER PACE AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE FSSE
GUIDANCE.
This is from the 2PM that I posted above.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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