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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
Member Is Offline
Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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Interesting info
The last "check-in/ok" message was at 7:49PM Friday evening, April 27th. A "check-in/ok" message is a manual operation that has to be keyed in.
The remaining messages were all "tracking" messages which is an automatic function that occurs approximately every 10 minutes. The last "tracking"
message was received at 1:36AM on Saturday, April 28.
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cisco
Do these boats run their engine when racing? Thought it was all sail. |
I have never participated in this "race" but it is my understanding that an engine is permitted if winds are light. It is a weekend race and a lot of
people have to be back at work on Monday.
At the risk of offending some Nomad members, I would like to offer some educated speculation. It appears from tracking in the upper part of the
screen that the vessel was essentially becalmed, running at maybe 1 to 2 knots just northwest of San Diego. It has been reported that winds were
light and variable at about 6 knots that night which is consistent with a hull speed of about 2 knots. Then the track shows the boat suddenly
making a steady headway of 6 knots on a direct course for the three or four hours prior to hitting the island. This would be consistent with them
starting their engine and running at hull speed of about 6 knots for a 37 foot full displacement hull.
In the picture of the AEGEAN the morning of the race start, you can clearly see a chart plotter at the helm. The Coronados would have clearly been
shown on any electronic charts they would have had and their onboard GPS would have shown where they were in relation to the islands in real time.
Was the plotter inoperative? Did the person on watch fall asleep at the helm? Why was a course set that clearly put the boat on a collision course
with the island? Why is the owner of the boat the only one still missing? There are a lot of questions with answers we will probably never know.
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
Member Is Offline
Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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One thing is for CERTAIN
Well, actually Two ?
1. They can forget about looking for ships with Paint Scrapes.
2. LEARNING from your mistakes and not repeating them doesn't apply.
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Maderita
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 12-14-2008
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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Sorry if some of this is redundant, I didn't get on this forum until after I sent this e-mail out to some of my adventurous friends:
Dear fellow adventurers,
I was wondering about the cause of the yacht accident.
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/29/11453097-3-dead...
Early speculation, from many news sources, was that the "Aegean" was run over by a freighter/cargo ship in the night. That seemed a likely scenario,
and a known danger in those waters. Reports varied, many indicating south or west of the Coronado Islands. I don't imagine that any sailor wants to
imagine that an experienced crew (the "Aegean" reportedly won the class previously) could navigate directly into a large land mass. It is
disconcerting to think that may be exactly what happened! You might find my sleuthing of interest.
I came across the SPOT tracking for the "Aegean", a Hunter 37'. It looks like they sailed a straight course, without deviation, to crash into the
rocky north shore of the North Coronado Island.
You can view the path here, with #50 the final location.
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=...
3 crew died. Two of blunt force trauma, one drowned, and the owner is still missing at sea.
I guessed that the survivability would be reduced by a high tide. Surviving the low-speed crash would be likely. Getting out of the cold water and
into a safe place away from crashing waves would be difficult to impossible at high tide. Low tide just might be more survivable, with some
opportunity to escape onto higher rocks. Zoom in and switch to "Satellite" view to see a close-up of the rocky shore.
I checked the tide chart for April 28th. The (San Diego) high tide was 4.0' at 1:33 AM. The last SPOT location was 3 minutes later, at 1:36 AM.
That is an unusually high tide and almost to the minute, at the very worst time.
Then I wondered, "How anyone could fail to see a tall rocky island with an abrupt cliff when they are sailing straight for it, and over many
miles?" There would have to be little to no moonlight. The islands are comprised of dark rock and soil which would reflect little ambient light.
Checking the moon charts (for San Diego): The 47% illuminated moon set at 12:54 AM. 36 minutes later, any residual glow would be gone, leaving the
night sky at it's darkest. I tried to find cloud cover info from the weather almanac. No luck in a quick search. IIRC, we had a heavy marine layer all
day - not good for my spray painting outdoors in the afternoon (Pt. Loma/San Diego). Overcast would block star light.
The swell was reported by other boats to be fairly large and the wind unusually light in the area. Somewhere I read that the class in which the
"Aegean" was racing allows for use of the engine when the wind drops below a certain speed, though I haven't confirmed that. I notice that earlier in
the evening the boat was making very slow progress (see Spot markers thru #27), then the boat appears to have doubled/tripled speed until it crashed.
I can't do much more than guess with the data, but at a glance it seems consistent with firing up the engine. A diesel engine might mask the noise of
waves crashing on an island.
Well, there seems to be a "perfect storm" of natural conditions which may have contributed to the fate of the Aegean & crew. It will never be
known just how many errors it took for a "perfect storm" of human mistakes. In analyzing any tragedy, incl. sailing or climbing, it is rarely one
mistake or condition that results in a fatality. It is almost always multiple conditions, timing, and human errors which unfold in a deadly
combination.
Stay sharp out there!
-John
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Maderita
You might find my sleuthing of interest. |
Your conclusions are consistent with mine. However, you did not address the issue of the chartplotter. They definitely had a plotter aboard, it is
clearly visible. The islands are shown on electronic charts, yet they sailed directly into them. Even if no electronic charts, they would have had
paper charts aboard (perhaps they had both). The captain/owner of the boat was reportedly an experienced sailor in that area, He would have been
very familiar with those islands, they are a major hazard on a course from Newport to Ensenada.
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
Member Is Offline
Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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LA Times article & comments
The comments after this article are interesting:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/05/yacht-deaths-b...
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
Member Is Offline
Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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The DEAD tell no TALES
AND SO The ONE thing that can be said is:
IF it turns out that they sailed directly into the Island, at least ONE SOMEBODY on Board failed to do his job.
With foreseeable (and tragic) consequences.
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Maderita
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 12-14-2008
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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Some good reporting here:
http://www.ocregister.com/news/aegean-352663-brewer-corneliu...
Note that Brewer was quoted as saying that he could see the moon. Unless I am mistaken in my research, the moon set approx. 36 minutes prior to the
last SPOT transmission. It was quite dark.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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We know that they hit an island, but we'll never know why they ran into an island.
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
Member Is Offline
Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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WHY ?
We know.
F'd-Up.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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"A dead man was found by a fisherman near the Coronado Islands Sunday around 2:30 p.m."
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/may/06/dead-body-found-n...
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18398
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cypress
We know that they hit an island, but we'll never know why they ran into an island. |
yes, we do know; navigation error!
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