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Author: Subject: Look out below! hurricane Miriam...
DavidE
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 07:55 AM


Hi Shari,

I have been making plans as best I can for the last couple of days. I will continue to prepare for the worst. The lady with the new hotel may not like what's coming. There's nothing like a 3 meter surge with 5 meter waves atop it to renovate coastal areas.

And separately. Thank you for the offer of the blue casa!




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redmesa
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:11 AM


Shari, you should get lots of before and after pictures of the bay coastline. It will probably look quite different in a week if the swells and rain are as predicted. The Leys coop sure seems vulnerable. I hope my house is dried out before we get there. although my main worries are with the residents of B.A. That sand is so unpredictable and nothing there is rain proof. Is there any type of community emergency aid there? other than roaming speakers telling everyone to go to high ground. I wonder how the new astro turf will survive?
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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:17 AM


new models show it going towards vizcaino putting BA in the heavy quadrant. at least it is predicted to fall apart prior to landfall. the waves, however, will still be impressively large!



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WideAngleWandering
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:20 AM


But by Saturday, if the storm passes over the peninsula, it may be windy enough to be a problem?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201213_5day....
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aguachico
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:23 AM


I hope the desert beats down another hurricane and sends it packing west. There are tons of tuna to catch from San Diego this weekend and would like smooth sailing.
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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:26 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by WideAngleWandering
But by Saturday, if the storm passes over the peninsula, it may be windy enough to be a problem?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201213_5day....


it will just be a tropical storm/depression once it passes over land. nothing more than a rainy windy rainstorm. nothing to worry about. it's the beaches that are gonna get pounded by the surf and storm surge.




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DavidE
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:43 AM
Wishful Thinking Ahead :)


Prepare For The Worst


Enjoy The Best

I sure hope you are right about the hurricane winds and rain.

I sure hope you are wrong about the intensity of the surf




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shari
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 08:44 AM
Storm Miriam weather reports


I see that the cape area is getting Miriam's outer bands now. Can we please get weather updates on wind and rain when it starts?



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Katiejay99
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 09:27 AM


Hi Shari: Todos Santos is hazy/overcast, no rain, no wind to speak of. Ocean looks unsettled but no white caps.
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shari
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 09:29 AM


thanks for that...calm before the storm eh!



for info & pics of our little paradise & whale watching info
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 09:53 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by shari
I see that the cape area is getting Miriam's outer bands now. Can we please get weather updates on wind and rain when it starts?


Try this site... Scroll down for wind speeds for Miriam..

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2012/index.htm...




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bajajudy
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 10:08 AM


We are overcast, no wind, no rain.
Big swell from the SW




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Bob H
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 10:23 AM


Shari, bring the chairs in....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?5-daynl#contents




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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 10:26 AM


Head high dreamy peaks this morning. Hoping for bigger later today...



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Bob H
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 10:26 AM


National Hurricane Center stuff

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?5-daynl#contents




The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 11:01 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BFS
Head high dreamy peaks this morning. Hoping for bigger later today...


...and here i am waiting for a flight to work.:no:




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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 11:20 AM


Miriam needs to stay away! Not cetain if our roof will take it!
Hope everyone stays safe, if Miriam does hit land.




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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 11:25 AM


Rancho Leonero webcam facing WNW-ish to Los Barriles:
Rancho Leonero




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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 11:35 AM


We are just North of Rancho Leonero, we are getting a very gentle slight breeze out of the East. We are wanting the rain, but no wind Please...
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[*] posted on 9-24-2012 at 12:54 PM


...here's the words of some weather watchers up the coast......I'm wishing everyone well---look after the locals too if you can!
...I'm pretty concerned for all those folks in Guerro Negro and all that very flat land around there-I know there's an army post there,,but somehow that doesn't reassure me of anything

......Going into the storm archive, Miriam has beat the probability projections every day. And not by a little bit. Southern Baja is usually impacted by a tropical cyclone on an yearly basis, though Miriam is forecast to landfall quite north on the peninsula. More north than is usual.
This storm is one to watch.
I think the last tropical cyclone to really impact southern California was in the 30's, so little chance of that. Forecast is for the cyclone to collapse prior to landfall, which would be kind to the resident population of Abreojos, Accension, and Turtle Bay. The rainfall associated with Miriam could cause trouble from Baja to New Mexico, and in between.

Miriam's satellite signature isn't beautiful and it is hard to imagine without cleaning things up a bit she can remain at Category 3 strength. More later if the trajectory changes but most models are in agreement that a mid peninsula strike as a TS is the most logical solution. Things have been trending north a bit though...

[Edited on 9-24-2012 by micah202]
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