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Taco de Baja
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajadogs
Spotty record cold temps and snowfall do not disprove man-made global warming. Day-to-day weather watching is like predicting a chaotic pendulum. The
scientists, who have documented the amount of man-made carbon introduced into our thin atmosphere, would be horribly disturbed that one would argue
that the delay of a baseball game negates decades of research. |
There are decades of research showing man has no hand in global warming too. Are you discounting these scientists??
Plus if the temperature at game time was 110* because of a freak heat wave, the global warming crowd would use this one day of "evidence" that man
really was causing global warming...You KNOW they would!
Also, there is new evidence from ice cores in Greenland that long term weather is like your chaotic pendulum...it can not be accurately predicted
either. Meaning computer models of climate change looking into the future almost worthless.
| Quote: | Severe climate changes during the last ice-age could have been caused by random chaotic variations on Earth and not governed by
external periodic influences from the Sun. This has been shown in new calculations by a researcher at the Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen University.
The ice archive shows that the climate has experienced very severe changes during the glacial period. During the glacial period there were 26 abrupt
temperature increases of about 7-10 degrees. These glacial warm periods are named Dansgaard-Oeschger events after the two scientists first observing
them.
Temperature increased by 10 degrees in less than 50 years  [all without our
help] with changes to the ocean currents and the whole ecosystem. These changes have caused sea level rises up to perhaps as much as 8 meters and
large changes to the vegetation.
The global warming we experience presently will cause a temperature increase of perhaps 2-5 degrees in the next century [that's a lot less
than 10 degrees in 50 years] if greenhouse gas emissions continue, researchers claim.
The 26 climate shifts are apparently periodic. They seem to occur with a period of 1470 years. Every now and then a period is skipped and the shifts
occur 3-4000 years apart. Professor Peter Ditlevsen at the Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen University wanted to investigate the periodicity of the
climate shifts. He asked: "Could it be that the shifts are chaotic and random, they just look periodic by pure coincidence. How probable is that?"
Using mathematical models of the climate shifts he calculated the probability of the periodicity. He focused on the time intervals between the climate
shifts. How regular are they really? As a baton, periodically beating, how far from the beating are the climate shifts? If the distances are perfectly
periodic 100% is obtained. It turned out that the climate shifts hit the beats of the baton by 70%.
He then had the computer spreading the shifts over the ice age randomly. He did this 1000 times with different random time intervals. In this he got
between 40% and 90% right hits. The major part of the calculations was between 55% and 75%.
Then he calculated the opposite assumption, that the climate shifts has a period. Again he made 1000 calculations, but this time the numbers came out
between 80% and 100%. The major part came out above 90%. But 90% is not the regularity for the real climate changes, they occur with 70%.
The conclusion drawn by Peter Ditlevsen is that the probability of hitting 70% is less if the climate shifts are periodic than if they are random.
This is very important for understanding the cause of the climate changes and especially for predicting climate shifts. If they are random and
chaotic they are fundamentally unpredictable. |
Science Daily Link
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Crusoe
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Weall agree that something big is definately happening.......Lets give our "Scientists" alot of credit for discovering what is really happening in
regards to what we are putting into our atmosphere each day and each week and each year!!......Our planet is puking its guts out from greenhouse
gasses.Global carbon dioxide emissions each year are increasing at an advanced rate.As measureed, we humans released 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide
into planet earths atmosphere.....Of the 12 hottest years on record,11 occured between 1995 and 2006. There is an overwhelming amount scientific
information that is true and correct that shows a very pointed focus to facts and documented data thatthat all scientists of every type agree on, and
mankind is causung this.There is no doubt as to what is happening, regardless if you like it or disagree.The key concept is adaption.There has been a
new world order developing in the alternitive energy fields that will emerge as the new world leaders. This all makes for a very positive good change
and is exciting to read about and watch. We are still living very much in the dark ages------ driving atound on rubber tires, starting our vehicles
with batteries developed in the 1800's and still mainly using incandascent ligthbulbs also invented in the same era. And burning way to much fossil
fuels from the same late way archaic 1800 technology.Maybe your grandkids will inherit a better, cleaner world to grow up in and all the little living
things like birds, fish and plants can continue to survive. As hopefully we humans will. Adaption!!!!!!
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The Sculpin
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Whoa!!!
This is where I have to leave the discussion.....for it is no longer a reasoned, rational one.
Science is not religion, and those who confuse the two do a disservice to both.
Science, while imperfect, is built on an ever changing body of knowledge which serves to support conclusions. The body of knowledge changes, the
conclusions change. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone today disputing the theory of gravity...
Religion is based in faith, and it supports its conclusions with dogma.
I feel the 2 can coexist perfectly. One picks up where the other leaves off.
I would encourage all to read "The God Delusion" by Richard Dawkins. It is a very interesting book for both the believer and the non-believer wich
looks at the subject in a very respectful and thoughtful way.
Adios y aloha
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David K
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You have to have an open mind and not 'run away' because facts (like what Taco de Baja posted) or common sense interfere with you belief (ie.
religion) that the world is abnormally warming due to mankind... specifically the United States.
Crusoe, when a volcano erupts a whole lot more carbon and sulfur gasses are released... nature handles it. Again, high temperatures 'on record'...
mean what? The record keeping has only been around since thermometers were invented. How old is the world?
30 years ago those kinds of scientists had people believing a new ice age was coming (it is, someday)...
Don't be fooled into the hype... the sky isn't falling.
There's nothing wrong with inventing and using better products and less pollution is good.
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Packoderm
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David, about the volcanoes, read my last post on this thread. Well, not this post being my last post but the one before this one. But I'll sum it up
here. Volcanoes don't just spew gasses; they also shoot out lava which turns into very fertile soil which brings about vegetation which absorbs these
types of gasses. In the long term, there is a bit of a balance in that equation.
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Taco de Baja
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Crusoe
....Of the 12 hottest years on record,11 occured between 1995 and 2006.....
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Only if you hand select your data points.... I can easily pull temp records from select locations around the globe "proving" the Earth is cooling
between 1995 and 2006..... 
The Earth is a complex place, some areas get cooler, some get hotter, some get wetter some get dryer.
| Quote: | COPENHAGEN, Denmark, March 15 (UPI) -- A Danish scientist said the idea of a "global temperature" and global warming is more political than
scientific.
University of Copenhagen Professor Bjarne Andresen has analyzed the topic in collaboration with Canadian Professors Christopher Essex from the
University of Western Ontario and Ross McKitrick of the University of Guelph.
It is generally assumed the Earth's atmosphere and oceans have grown warmer during the recent 50 years because of an upward trend in the so-called
global temperature, which is the result of complex calculations and averaging of air temperature measurements taken around the world.
"It is impossible to talk about a single temperature for something as complicated as the climate of Earth," said Andresen, an expert
on thermodynamics. "A temperature can be defined only for a homogeneous system. Furthermore, the climate is not governed by a single temperature.
Rather, differences of temperatures drive the processes and create the storms, sea currents, thunder, etc. which make up the climate".
He says the currently used method of determining the global temperature -- and any conclusion drawn from it -- is more
political than scientific.
The argument is presented in the Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics. |
Link
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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MrBillM
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Devoutly Liberal Druids
IF any of the Lefty Loons took seriously the Baseball Comments, it only goes to show how obsessive they are about their Earth
worship.
The comments were a flippant response to the consistent tendency of the Latter-Day Druids to note every instance of an unusually high temperature as
Proof of their Global Warming "Theories".
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Cypress
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Global Warming? Weather changes are observed hour by hour and day to day.
Climate changes are measured in terms of milleniums. It doesn't take a PHD to
realize weather and climate undergo changes. The climate has been changing long
before humans could have had any impact one way or the other, in fact it changed before we were ever even on earth.
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Sharksbaja
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The sky is falling, the sky is falling
Yep, more rain.
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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David K
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Packoderm
David, about the volcanoes, read my last post on this thread. Well, not this post being my last post but the one before this one. But I'll sum it up
here. Volcanoes don't just spew gasses; they also shoot out lava which turns into very fertile soil which brings about vegetation which absorbs these
types of gasses. In the long term, there is a bit of a balance in that equation. |
Yes, I read it the first time... volcanoes make NEW land!
Yes, the lava eventually breaks down and plants will grow in it... in time (a long time) the volcanic soil is very rich for farms and vegetation to
grow in... in time.
When a volcano erupts all those millions of tons of pollutants go into the atmosphere RIGHT NOW... the new plant growth that will make some oxygen is
going to happen LATER.
All that is well and good, and all that is really A-OK... Because all that is NATURAL. What man adds to the atmosphere along with the cattle farts the
eco-wack jobs are trying to stop, is really so minor that the change would not be measurable...
I am not a scientist, I am just a common sense person who likes to base ideas on details, facts and logic NOT hype and emotion.
Please read everything Taco de Baja has contributed to this thread and have a logical debate with that.
PEACE!
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Packoderm
Super Nomad
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Thanks David.
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bajadogs
Super Nomad
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taco
| Quote: | | There are decades of research showing man has no hand in global warming too. Are you discounting these scientists?? |
Show me one scientist, give me the name and credentials - just one scientist who has decades of research who can show that man has had no effect on
global warming. I will wait.
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Frigatebird
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Packoderm...Also, volcano eruptions cause a sort of "nuclear winter" which cools much of the earth as what happened with
the eruption of Mt. Saint Hellens...
..."There is evidence suggesting that recent efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has caused a spike in global temperatures over the past
decade. Without our protective layer of industrial pollutants, the Earth's atmosphere is now reflecting less solar radiation, and temperatures are
rising... |
I remember watching the 1991 solar eclipse from near El Conejo. The sunsets and sunrises during
that time were noticeably more orange-red. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo a month earlier was said to be the cause. It was the largest eruption of the
20th century, or so I've read. The ash and aerosol particles that circled the globe, not only made for spectacular sky shows, but also affected lower
and upper atmospheric temperatures in the months following. The effect of the aerosols appears to be significant, and therefore vulcanism's
contribution to global climate change...oops, global warming, seems to
be a mixed bag.
For those doubting the power of humanity, there was an interesting data set collected in the days immediately following 9/11. During the national
aviation stoppage, the difference between high & low temperatures at many locations in the U.S. increased. Once planes began flying again, the
temperature differences settled back to previous trends. The effect seen during those quiet sky times was said to be caused by a more transparent
atmosphere, allowing more sunlight to reach the surface during the day making it warmer, and fewer insulating aerosol-formed clouds during the night
making it cooler. Now admittedly, I believe the BBC produced the program; but if we can affect the weather in such short order,... ?
Avatar courtesy of Herb 
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Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
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And the Saga goes on!
Another "Fear" article delivered by one Julie Watson of the Associated Press in todays News.
This time it is predicted by 2050--2080- 70 Million People will starve- all the Rain Forests in Brazil will be gone- All the ice Caps will have
Melted.
Fear among the Masses- Control by the Elite-- What a Scam!!
Skeet/Loreto
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
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Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajadogs
taco
| Quote: | | There are decades of research showing man has no hand in global warming too. Are you discounting these scientists?? |
Show me one scientist, give me the name and credentials - just one scientist who has decades of research who can show that man has had no effect on
global warming. I will wait. |
I could provide many, but will stick to 3 papers to save on forum space.
I hope papers published in peer reviewed journals like Nature, Science, and Physics of Climate meet your qualifications…
[Sorry for the bold type, I could not get it to turn off....]
| Quote: |
| Quote: | Reference
Bard, E. and Frank, M. 2006. Climate change and solar variability: What's new under the sun? Earth and Planetary Science Letters 248: 1-14.
What was done
The authors review what is known, and unknown, about solar variability and its effects on earth's climate, focusing on the past few decades, the past
few centuries, the entire Holocene, and orbital timescales.
What was learned
Of greatest interest to us are Bard and Frank's conclusions about sub-orbital time scales, i.e., the first three of their four major focal points.
Within this context, as they say in the concluding section of their review, "it appears that solar fluctuations were involved in causing widespread
but limited climatic changes, such as the Little Ice Age (AD 1500-1800) that followed the Medieval Warm Period (AD 900-1400)." Or as they say in the
concluding sentence of their abstract, "the weight of evidence suggests that solar changes have contributed to small climate oscillations occurring on
time scales of a few centuries, similar in type to the fluctuations classically described for the last millennium: The so-called Medieval Warm Period
(AD 900-1400) followed on by the Little Ice Age (AD 1500-1800)."
What it means
In the words of Bard and Frank, "Bond et al. (1997, 2001) followed by Hu et al. (2003) proposed that variations of solar activity are responsible for
quasi-periodic climatic and oceanographic fluctuations that follow cycles of about one to two millennia." As a result, as they continue, "the
succession from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age would thus represent the last [such] cycle," leading to the conclusion that "our
present climate is in an ascending phase on its way to attaining a new warm optimum," due to some form of solar variability. In addition, they note
that "a recent modeling study suggests that an apparent 1500-year cycle could arise from the superimposed influence of the 90 and 210 year solar
cycles on the climate system, which is characterized by both nonlinear dynamics and long time scale memory effects (Braun et al. 2005)."
Taken together, these several observations leave little need to invoke the historical increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions as the primary
cause of modern warming. In fact, they leave no such need at all, as solar influences appear to be sufficient to explain the bulk of the
increase in temperature. Nevertheless, much more work is needed to clarify the specific mechanisms by which the solar-induced warming is accomplished.
References
Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W., Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I. and Bonani, G. 2001. Persistent
solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science 294: 2130-2136.
Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., deMenocal, P., Priore, P., Cullen, H., Hajdas, I. and Bonani, G. 1997. A pervasive
millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial climate. Science 278: 1257-1266.
Braun, H., Christl, M., Rahmstorf, S., Ganopolski, A., Mangini, A., Kubatzki, C., Roth, K. and Kromer, B. 2005. Possible solar origin of the 1470-year
glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model. Nature 438: 208-211.
Hu, F.S., Kaufman, D., Yoneji, S., Nelson, D., Shemesh, A., Huang, Y., Tian, J., Bond, G., Clegg, B. and Brown, T. 2003. Cyclic variation and solar
forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic. Science 301: 1890-1893
CO2 Science V10 N8
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| Quote: |
Reference
Pollack, H.N., Huang, S. and Shen, P.-Y. 1998. Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective. Science 282:
279-281.
What was done
A history of global surface temperature over the past five centuries was reconstructed from 358 boreholes spread throughout eastern North America,
central Europe, southern Africa, and Australia.
What was learned
Nearly 80% of the 358 borehole locations experienced a net warming over the past five centuries, while about 20% experienced a net cooling. The mean
temperature increase over the 500-year period for all stations was approximately 1°C.
What it means
This study documents the complexity of earth's climate system, illustrating the fact that not only can the magnitude of temperature change vary widely
across the surface of the planet, but that even its sign may differ from place to place. In the mean, however, the results concur with those of other
recent global climate reconstructions, indicating that global temperatures have risen by about one degree Celsius over the past 500 years. However,
these observations, together with contemporaneous atmospheric CO2 data, tend to argue against CO2-induced global warming.
CO2 Science V1 N4
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| Quote: |
Reference
Maasch, K.A., Mayewski, P.A., Rohling, E.J., Stager, J.C., Karlén, W., Meeker, L.D. and Meyerson, E.A. 2005. A 2000-year context for modern climate
change. Geografiska Annaler 87 A: 7-15.
What was done
Many researchers have examined historical proxy temperature changes over the past millennia and beyond in an attempt to quantify the magnitude,
frequency and causes of natural climate variability. However, temperature is not always the best measure of climate, and it is certainly not the only
measure. Few studies, for example, have examined the millennial range and rate of change of hydrologic and atmospheric circulation; yet changes in
these parameters are important because they are involved in more than half of the earth's poleward transfer of heat (Peixoto and Oort, 1992).
In the present study, Maasch et al. attempt to remedy this deficiency by examining changes in eight well-dated high-resolution non-temperature records
over the past two millennia: (1) K+ concentrations from the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, (2) Na+ concentrations from the Siple Dome ice core in
Antarctica, (3) percent Ti from an ocean sediment core in the Cariaco basin, (4) Fe intensity from a marine core near the coast of mid-latitude Chile,
(5) oxygen isotope fractions from Punta Laguna near the Yucatan, (6) carbon isotope data from a speleothem in Makapansgat, South Africa, (7) percent
of shallow water diatoms from Lake Victoria, and (8) lake levels from Lake Naivasha in equatorial Africa. The eight data sets were then compared with
a history of atmospheric 14C, a proxy for solar variability that was obtained from tree rings, to ascertain what, if any, solar influence operated on
these parameters.
What was learned
Comparison of the 14C solar proxy data with the eight climate-related data sets revealed that over the past 2000 years there has been, in the authors'
words, a "strong association between solar variability and globally distributed climate change." This "remarkable coherence" among
the data sets was particularly noticeable in the Medieval Warm Period to Little Ice Age transition, as well as throughout the Little Ice Age.
What it means
Contrary to the strident claims of climate alarmists, the results of this study suggest that the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were indeed
global phenomena that were likely the products of natural climate variability driven by changes in solar activity. As for the Current Warm
Period, we believe it to be much less due to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration than to the natural - and likely solar-induced - recovery of
the planet from the coldest period of the current interglacial, i.e., the Little Ice Age.
Reference
Peixoto, J.P. and Oort, A.H. 1992. Physics of Climate. American Institute of Physics, New York.
CO2 Science V9 N6
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Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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One more from the news today
| Quote: | April 11, 2007
MANKIND is naive to think it can influence climate change, according to a prize-winning Australian geologist.
Solar activity is a greater driver of climate change than man-made carbon dioxide, argues Ian Plimer, Professor of Mining Geology at the University of
Adelaide and winner of several notable science prizes.
The next part of Prof Plimer's research was to examine the sources of carbon dioxide.
He said he found that about 0.1 per cent of the atmospheric carbon dioxide was due to human activity and much of the rest due to little-understood
geological phenomena.
“It is extraordinarily difficult to argue that human-induced carbon dioxide has any effect at all,” he said.
Prof Plimer added that as the planet was already at the maximum absorbance of energy of carbon dioxide, any more would have no greater effect.
There had even been periods in history with hundreds of times more atmospheric carbon dioxide than now with no problem, he said.
“You'd be very hard pushed to find a geologist that would differ from my view,” he said. [Hey, maybe that’s why I think
mankind can not change the weather ]
He said bad news was more fashionable now than good and that people had an innate tendency to want to be a little frightened.
But Prof Plimer conceded the politics of greenhouse gas emissions meant that attention was being given to energy efficiency, which he supported.
[I agree with this too]
The professor, who is writing a book on the subject, said he only used validated scientific data, published in reputable peer-reviewed refereed
journals, as the basis of his theories.
[See, there are real scientists, who publish in reputable journals, who do not see mankind's hand in global warming]
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Link
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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More from recent news.
Does hurricane forecaster William Gray have enough scientific credentials for you???
| Quote: |
Accelerated hurricane activity isn't greenhouse related
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 10 April, 2007 : - - New Orleans --
Natural changes in ocean currents are to blame for increased Atlantic hurricane activity in recent years, not man-made global warming as many
scientists believe, hurricane forecaster William Gray said on Friday.
"I think the whole human-induced greenhouse gas thing is a red herring," Gray said in a speech at the National Hurricane Conference.
Gray, whose annual forecasts for the hurricane season are closely watched, said the Earth has warmed the past 30 years, but that it was due to
flucuations in ocean currents. He predicted a cooling off period would begin in five to 10 years as the currents change again.
"I see climate change as due to the ocean circulation pattern. I see this as a major cause of climate change," Gray told the meteorologists and
emergency management specialist who attend the annual conference. The Atlantic had destructive hurricane seasons in 2004, when four major hurricanes
struck Florida, and 2005 when Katrina and Rita badly damaged the US Gulf Coast. |
link
[Edited on 4-11-2007 by Taco de Baja]
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Don Alley
Super Nomad
Posts: 1997
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Location: Loreto
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Good grief, so you can do a massive review of scientific records to justify the view that global warming is NOT man caused. But I would not be
surprised if someone could do a review and come up with an equal number of reports and statements from reputable scientists claiming warming IS man
caused.
Two Options:
Gather documents supporting each side, and weigh them with a balance scale. Heavier side wins!
Ask: What does (insert Hillary, W, Ahnold, AlGore, Bill, McCain, Rudy, Al Sharpton, Don Imus, Jay Leno, Rush, or Eric Cartman) think?
I'm with Cartman:
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bajadogs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1064
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Thanks Taco for the opinion of the weatherman.
I don't know about you but I hate being lied to.
The whole "solar activity" argument is not only outdated and selective, it's factually incorrect - intentionally misleading. That's pretty dang
offensive to me.
There's something about a British accent that makes these lies believable.
Here is a professor who debunks the original propaganda piece in a logical way -
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1656640542976216573...
oh... be nice to me today. im 40
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64746
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Location: San Diego County
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Happy Birthday bajadogs!
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