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Cervisin
Nomad
Posts: 176
Registered: 8-13-2007
Member Is Offline
Mood: Mañana... quizá
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3;00 am Tuesday Sept. 4 2007
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040857
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO.
AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST
COAST.
AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather
Right-click - > view image will give you the full size image ( in FireFox )
Light rain here in La Paz, no air movement at all....
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Cervisin
Nomad
Posts: 176
Registered: 8-13-2007
Member Is Offline
Mood: Mañana... quizá
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory - 5:00 am PDT on September 04, 2007
...Outer bands of Henriette approaching southern tip of Baja
California...
At 500 am PDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Henriette was
located near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 109.3 west or about 80
miles...125 km...south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California.
Henriette is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...16
km/hr...and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected for the next 24 hours. On this track the
center of Henriette is expected to be near or over the southern
Baja Peninsula by this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Henriette is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some intensification is possible prior to Henriette making
landfall over the southern Baja Peninsula.
The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather
[Edited on 4-9-2007 by Cervisin]
[Edited on 4-9-2007 by Cervisin]
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tortuga
Nomad
Posts: 277
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: Bellevue, Idaho or Los Barriles B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Muy Despacio
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5a.m. update
[Edited on 9-4-2007 by tortuga]
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
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someone's getting wet...
here in mulege 6:15am it's clear
85 degrees
slight breeze
the calm before the storm???
you wouldn't EVEN think we going to get a drenching
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tortuga
Nomad
Posts: 277
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: Bellevue, Idaho or Los Barriles B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Muy Despacio
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hang on guys !
"HENRIETTE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA."
This a bit of better news .
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oldlady
Banned
Posts: 1714
Registered: 10-31-2005
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
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6:45 am
Rain in Chametla (weird vibe place outside adjacent to La Paz) began an hour ago. Steady, no wind yet. Hope she gets off her tush and moves through
quickly
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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We have had a little rain and a little wind but it sure doesnt look too good from here on out.
Looks like a direct hit right on top of my house.
Time to do an outside check as the sun is coming up.
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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Best wishes Judy.
It looks like the heavy rains will hit Cabo in an hour or 2.
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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0730, Los Cabos
Well, Cabo San Lucas is going to get smacked head on later this afternoon. La Paz will probably take it on the nose in about 24 hours.
I am looking out my window and the surf looks like the north shore of Oahu.
We are losing beach and our turtle hatchling pen is in danger of being washed away. Squalls are passing through the area. At times it is almost dark
as night, with wind gusts to 40 knots and raining gatos y peros. Right now it is quite bright outside, with light winds, and just drizzle.
There is a bit of a horizon on the sea to the south, but everything is just grey overcast.
We don't feel threatened at this time, but this should prove interesting as the day progresses. I'm going to go fix myself a bowl of oatmeal and
watch the show. I think we'll just hang around the casa today and stay dry!
Suerte
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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Maybe go dig up the turtle eggs and replant them when the storm is over ?
Or call these guys... ?
http://www.mexonline.com/tortuga.htm
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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Our section of the beach has been designated the local hatchling area. The eggs from a 15 mile stretch of beach have been collected and gathered
here. I have been told that there is around 1000 eggs in a fenced off area that is about 30x40. The eggs are due to hatch around the end of
September.
It is not safe to go down on the beach now. But I know the authorities have been notified and are aware of the situation. I hate to lose those eggs!
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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Centenario 8:20 AM Light-medium rain (NOT sprinkles), wind is picking up...I'm a lousy judge of wind speed, but it's more than a
breeze...possibly 5-8 mph now. There's a water leak in a 6' section of the hall roof here in the rental PIT, and it looks like the animals & I
will be getting a shower each time we go into or out of the bedroom!!!
Edit typo
[Edited on 9-4-2007 by longlegsinlapaz]
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oldlady
Banned
Posts: 1714
Registered: 10-31-2005
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
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Legs,
I hope you know you are welcome over here...animals too. The street floods but the house stays dry...no Squirt in fridge
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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LMAO....8 bottles here! I know that, but I should be fine here with all my earthly possessions. Thanks for the offer!! Going to take a run up to my property
while I can still get outta here & up the hill to see if all materials were stowed & all foam debris removed from the area & put inside
the bodega...per my request...to prevent the entire hillside looking like the top of Mt. Hood after the winds hit!
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oldlady
Banned
Posts: 1714
Registered: 10-31-2005
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
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If the brown house has collapsed off the platform....don't call!
I'll cry tomorrow.
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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Sailflow says 24 knots in Cabo and bouyweather says the seas are 13-15' offshore.
.
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Cervisin
Nomad
Posts: 176
Registered: 8-13-2007
Member Is Offline
Mood: Mañana... quizá
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Pics Malecon La Paz ca. 45 minutes ago
Here some shots - the rest at the La Paz Blog, link below, dont wanna take to much bandwith here
More pics at La Paz Blog here
The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
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My little vacation to Los Barriles was cut short to get home before the storm. Saturday fishing along the beach was excellent, Sunday it was great
too until the late afternoon then it shut off, no action no bites. Monday morning same thing, no fish. The fish always know that something is
approaching. My theory is they can detect changes in pressure and go off their bite. The Spa Buena Vista where we stayed, pulled their boats out of
the water on Monday.
When we left Los Barilles it looked like rain would fall any minute that was about 1pm. We left La Paz at 5pm and the clouds to the south were
ominous. We saw lightning to our east as we drove north. constitucion got rain and we were rained on briefly but we made it home to Loreto safely at
10:30pm. Now it is starting to cloud up and this is from the periphery of the storm.
I just checked the latest sat images and a defined eye has formed this storm may be borderline 2 when it hits, which looks like pretty soon. Remember
the SOC SST´s are in the low 90´s F and that tends to attract storms. Worst case scenario for Loreto is the storm moves over La Paz then maintains
strength over water to the east of the peninsula (like Marty did). If that is the case it will maintain hurricane strength. Best case is that it
weakens over land and moves through quickly. Either way Loreto´s downtown area will be a disaster as streets are still unpaved.
After the youngest is brought to school we´ll be prepping the house for this storm. The flash flooding takes more lives and damages more property
than the winds. Another thing to note is the predictions are basically shots in the dark at this point as the storm will do what it wants and will
dictate the local atmospheric conditions and not be so much dictated by them. The predictions rely on curent and predicted atmospheric conditions as
they cannot base predictions on the unknown factors that these storms create. hope that made some sense.
[Edited on 9-4-2007 by flyfishinPam]
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elizabeth
Senior Nomad
Posts: 742
Registered: 7-30-2004
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
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Best wishes to all of you in the hurricane path. Take care.
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
Member Is Offline
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Sitting here in an internet cafe in Grants Pass Oregon and I'm going crazy wondering how our near-east cape home will fair in the big one. I want to
be there, but on the other hand maybe it's best that we are up here on vacation. Denny and Judy at Buzzards report 2 inches of rain so far. Looks like
it will really hit hard and soon in the San Jose area.
Good luck to you all and Judy please keep us up to date. That new building of yours should knife right through the wind!
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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