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Author: Subject: Hurricanes in October?
ftrphb
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[*] posted on 9-30-2024 at 04:54 PM
Hurricanes in October?


What are the odds of an October hurricane in Baja?
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surabi
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[*] posted on 9-30-2024 at 07:07 PM


Kind of an odd question. How would someone know that? Rainy season is still in full swing with storms moving up the Pacific mainland coast, which can develop into hurricanes, which often move towards Baja.
If you asked the odds of a hurricane in January, the odds would be about zero, but Oct.is anyone's guess.
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[*] posted on 9-30-2024 at 07:38 PM


strong possibility



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[*] posted on 9-30-2024 at 08:21 PM


You really can't count on any consistent weather patterns anymore since climate change has escalated.
I've lived on the mainland near PV for 20 years and you used to be able to count on the rains being over by the first or second week of Oct. Then it got dry and consistently sunny, with maybe a week or two of cloudy weather and the odd rain shower in January.

In the past few years, it has rained into November, sometimes with hurricanes and flooding. And now it sometimes rains again in Dec. or March, whatever. The winter nights have also gotten much colder. I can only recall one winter in my first 15 years here where it got quite cold after the sun went down, it was an anomoly. And that only lasted for a few nights. Now it can be quite cold at night consistently for a couple of months straight in late Dec., Jan. and Feb.
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[*] posted on 10-1-2024 at 06:12 AM


Not an odd question at all. Lets look at a subset from the last 15 years. You can look up any year of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season fairly easily, with each storm documented on Wikipedia. Many years will show some sort of tropical depression, storm or hurricane making landfall in Baja in October.

This year we have COLD waters along the Baja California western shores, as well in the "hurricane makin' happinir'" zone off Oaxaca. This has been a trend for several months, so it was already assumed we'd have a less active season this year. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ss...

In fact, a tropical system is shown to be hitting Baja mid October. (Yes, the forecast models out near 180hr+ are not always spot on, but they show overall trends very well).


oct_2024.JPG - 265kB

[Edited on 10-1-2024 by BooJumMan]

[Edited on 10-1-2024 by BooJumMan]




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[*] posted on 10-1-2024 at 06:22 AM


Quote: Originally posted by surabi  
Kind of an odd question. How would someone know that? Rainy season is still in full swing with storms moving up the Pacific mainland coast, which can develop into hurricanes, which often move towards Baja.
If you asked the odds of a hurricane in January, the odds would be about zero, but Oct.is anyone's guess.


Not an odd question at all for someone not familiar with Baja. He's not asking for some exact number, just a general idea. E.g. does hurricane frequency slow down once you leave Summer.

My answer is late October the probability gets pretty low. Great time to be out of the Sea of Cortez hoping between islands and bays. Still need to watch the forecasts.





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[*] posted on 10-1-2024 at 08:05 AM


Quote: Originally posted by ftrphb  
What are the odds of an October hurricane in Baja?


probability of hurricane in october is about half the probability of hurricane in september.




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[*] posted on 10-1-2024 at 08:58 AM


Cabo hurricanes typically run mid-May to late November. Predicting weather is an imprecise science, generally. Takes very little rain to flood streets from SQ to LP.

If I knew a hurricane was coming, I'd be driving North.




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[*] posted on 10-2-2024 at 11:39 AM


The current forecast shows nothing through mid-October and the water around BCS has started to cool off!

On the Pacific side nighttime temperatures are running in the mid-70s to the high 60s. (Long time locals 30 years+) say this summer has been unusually cool! Rain so-far at the beach has been 1.5”!
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[*] posted on 10-2-2024 at 03:59 PM


The peninsula has escaped major storms this season (so far). I imagine it is rain starved.

The season is pretty much over in a couple of weeks.




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[*] posted on 10-4-2024 at 11:53 AM


Totally true!


Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
The peninsula has escaped major storms this season (so far). I imagine it is rain starved.

The season is pretty much over in a couple of weeks.




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[*] posted on 10-6-2024 at 07:24 AM


2-5C colder than "average" pretty much all summer.

The hurricane that the long range forecasts were showing has pretty much fizzled out. Only looks like some rain around the tip now.

eastern pacific oct 2024.JPG - 101kB




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[*] posted on 10-6-2024 at 12:39 PM


You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now. If it were on the Gulf side it would be all over the news but the US weather men do not report on storms that are going to become hurricanes very often if they are in the Pacific.

[Edited on 10-6-2024 by wiltonh]
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[*] posted on 10-6-2024 at 12:43 PM


Quote: Originally posted by wiltonh  
You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now.


Hurricane season goes thru end of November…
Patience, grasshopper.




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[*] posted on 10-7-2024 at 10:40 AM


One of the worst to hit BCS hammered CSL in I believe '72, December!

October can be active. Many Insurers won't insure vessels south of Loreto until December.
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[*] posted on 10-7-2024 at 11:34 AM


Quote: Originally posted by wiltonh  
You might want to check out eebmike.com as there is a storm that has a 60% chance to become a hurricane headed towards Southern Baja right now. If it were on the Gulf side it would be all over the news but the US weather men do not report on storms that are going to become hurricanes very often if they are in the Pacific.

[Edited on 10-6-2024 by wiltonh]


There is a big tropical storm moving up the mainland Pacific coast. We had a deluge of rain last night, and supposed to be the same for the next few days. Coming from a system presently called 99e. The trajectory shows it heading straight for Cabo. Of course, it could break up and be a nothing burger or develop into a hurricane.
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