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Frigatebird
Nomad
Posts: 215
Registered: 9-12-2004
Location: L.A. County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Soaring
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Tropical Depression Paul
Hey Paul,
In pace requiescat!!!
[Edited on 10-25-2006 by Frigatebird]
Avatar courtesy of Herb 
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
Member Is Offline
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Well, it was about time to get the bed off the roof anyway. A bit or rain now would keep our desert green for a while yet.
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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Cyclops_II
Newbie
Posts: 6
Registered: 10-16-2006
Member Is Offline
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Set to leave tom
We are set to leave for MagBay tomorow... I hope this stays small or does not turn... what does everyone think?
Steve
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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I'm getting tired of looking at those things
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Still early, but.............
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW
MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
MUCH EARLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/110226.sh...
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
Member Is Offline
Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Early Forecasts
Given the track record of NOAA regarding Early Forecasts of Hurricane tracks in the Pacific, especially when they involve a radical course turn, I'll
believe it when it happens.
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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Looks like the times of 60 pesos a kilo of Tomatoes might be ahead.
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Marie-Rose
Senior Nomad
Posts: 894
Registered: 10-2-2003
Location: Victoria, B.C. and Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: Worried...
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Cloudy and very humid in Todos Santos! 88 degrees on the shade of the deck!!
Remember, when in Mexico, yes may be no and no may be
maybe!
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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cyclops_II
We are set to leave for MagBay tomorow... I hope this stays small or does not turn... what does everyone think?
Steve |
I really don't think it matters what anyone thinks... it's gonna do what it's gonna do - not matter what. Just keep an eye on it and get out if it
comes your way... Bob H
The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
Member Is Offline
Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Hopes and Prayers
I guess that you could get together with Skeet and pray for divine intervention. That's always worked well in the past. Or so I've heard.
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Frigatebird
Nomad
Posts: 215
Registered: 9-12-2004
Location: L.A. County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Soaring
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Spinning down late Tuesday, but still full of rain.
The Cape Region is just right of the top center of the image.
[Edited on 10-25-2006 by Frigatebird]
Avatar courtesy of Herb
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chino
Nomad
Posts: 182
Registered: 11-27-2005
Location: Nor Cal
Member Is Offline
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Send some of that water to Nor Cal!, still dry here.
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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......is now HURRICANE Paul & there's currently a hurricane watch in effect from Cabo to La Paz!  Obviously nobody told Mother Nature hurricane
season was supposed to have ended a couple weeks ago!
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9009
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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Hurricane season doesn't end, technically, until Nov. 1.
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Frigatebird
Nomad
Posts: 215
Registered: 9-12-2004
Location: L.A. County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Soaring
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More technically,
the East Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30. 
Avatar courtesy of Herb
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
Member Is Offline
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HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
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SUNDOG
Nomad
Posts: 176
Registered: 8-9-2006
Location: Baja
Member Is Offline
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UPDATE:Hurricane Paul strengthens, threatens southern Baja California
Hurricane Paul strengthens, threatens southern Baja California
ASSOCIATED PRESS
8:23 a.m. October 23, 2006
Associated Press
This NOAA satellite image taken Sunday shows Hurricane Paul.
MEXICO CITY – Hurricane Paul neared Category 3 status Monday with winds as high as 110 mph as it began curving toward the Baja California peninsula.
Paul was moving northwest at about 5 mph. Forecasters predicted it would strengthen further and could hit Mexico's Pacific coast in the next few days.
A hurricane watch was issued for the southern tip of Baja California, a resort area that has been battered by two other hurricanes this season.
The storm was on a course that would bring it just south of the peninsula late Tuesday before plowing into Mexico's Pacific coast near the resort of
Mazatlan.
At 11 a.m. EDT, the storm was about 455 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, known for deep-sea fishing and upscale hotels popular with Hollywood's
elite. It had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, just one short of becoming a Category 3 storm.
Mexico was struck by two Pacific hurricanes last month. Hurricane John battered Baja California, killing five people and destroying 160 homes, while
Hurricane Lane hit the resort town of Mazatlan, causing relatively minor damage.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Wow, guess what? It is actually raining in Bahia Asuncion for the first time in a couple years!!! OOOps it just stopped...but looks like we may get a
little more. Hope Paul gets back on his northeasern track and slips by the baja.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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hard rain in Mulege and Santa Rosalia. electricity out most of the morning.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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