elgatoloco
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Gray whale recovery called incorrect
LA Times article with photos.
http://tinyurl.com/39zxks
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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Bedman
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Here's a reprint of the article...
A study finds a far greater historical population, rendering the current number smaller in comparison.
By Kenneth R. Weiss and Karen Kaplan, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
September 11, 2007
The success story of the Pacific gray whales' full recovery from near-extinction is wrong, according to a new genetic analysis that pegs the current
population at only one-third to one-fifth of historical levels.
By examining subtle variations in DNA taken from 42 modern whales, scientists have concluded that between 78,500 and 117,700 gray whales lived before
the heyday of commercial whaling in the 19th and 20th centuries.
That finding, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that the about 22,000 gray whales now swimming along
the California coast remain a depleted population.
"It's startling for us to consider the California gray whale, which we considered recovered for more than a decade, has not recovered after all," said
Scott Baker, a researcher at Oregon State University's Marine Mammal Institute in Newport, Ore., who was not involved in the study.
The results counter what had been a predominant scientific view that the iconic creatures of the West Coast were so bountiful that they were
overgrazing their traditional feeding grounds.
Instead, the findings provide further evidence that this year's abnormally high number of skinny whales is a sign of deterioration of the vast ocean
ecosystem that stretches from Baja California to the Bering Sea.
"If the oceans a few hundred years ago could support 100,000 gray whales, why can't the oceans sustain 20,000 whales today?" said Stephen Palumbi, a
Stanford University marine sciences professor and senior author of the study.
Palumbi caused a scientific commotion four years ago when he and a Harvard University colleague estimated that humpback, fin and minke whales in the
North Atlantic were once two to 10 times more abundant than their current population levels.
Besides challenging conventional estimates, their study presented a political problem for the International Whaling Commission, which oversees a
global ban on commercial hunting.
The commission has long promised to allow whaling nations such as Japan and Norway to resume operations once certain species have recovered to 54% of
historic levels.
In the case of humpback whales, Palumbi estimated that it would take 70 to 100 years before the population reached such a threshold.
Gray whales are now hunted by native peoples, who are allowed to kill up to 140 animals each year. Nearly all are harpooned by traditional Russian
hunters off the coast of Siberia, although Washington state's Makah tribe has been trying to reassert its right to hunt gray whales.
The DNA-based estimates of historical populations are unlikely to change those limits, which most experts agree is not high enough to affect the
stability of the whale population.
But the new DNA-based estimates undermine the scientific foundation of the whaling commission's estimates of the health of whale populations in
general.
"It's going to prompt both the IWC and the National Marine Fisheries to reconsider this," Baker said. "Whether it will convince them to change
management, I'm not sure."
Even judging by anecdotal sources, the current gray whale population is a far cry from the past. When French explorer Jean-Francois La Perouse sailed
into Monterey Bay in the 1700s, he complained that gray whales were so abundant that the stench of their breath fouled the air.
The whales were nearly hunted to extinction in the 1930s, but due to international protections their population steadily increased to an estimated
high of 26,600 in the late 1990s.
Scientists have previously relied on whalers' logbooks and records of sales of barrels of oil -- and, more recently, computer models -- to estimate
past populations of the behemoths. The methods were crude, producing estimates ranging from 15,000 to 20,000, though some models generated figures
several times as high.
To construct a more precise estimate, Palumbi relied on the genetic principle that mutations accumulate slowly over time in a discernible pattern.
He and his colleagues, graduate students Liz Alter of Stanford and Eric Rynes of the University of Washington, examined DNA samples from 42 gray
whales that had washed ashore or were biopsied at sea. They looked in 10 specific places that they believe have mutated independently over time.
Since mutations accumulate slowly, the degree of difference between the whales works as a kind of yardstick, indicating how many generations have
passed since they shared a common ancestor.
The researchers used computers to calculate the number of ancient breeding whales that would have been necessary to produce the variety of genetic
patterns obtained in their samples.
Factoring in that some adults don't breed, the proportion of juveniles and other factors, they concluded that at least 78,500 and no more than 117,700
gray whales must have roamed the Pacific.
Palumbi said that population was reached at least 1,600 years ago. He said there was no way to tell if the population was stable until the onset of
commercial whaling or if it had already been declining due to aboriginal hunting or unknown natural causes.
Rob Fleischer, who heads the Center for Conservation and Evolutionary Genetics at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C., said the study was convincing
because of its detailed genetic analysis.
The population estimates are "still a lot more than anybody thought, even at the bottom end of the distribution," he said.
The new study, which was funded by the National Institutes of Health, Stanford and several private foundations, has not generated the scientific
skepticism of Palumbi's first effort to use genetics to estimate the populations of humpback, fin and minke whales.
Phillip Clapham, a leading whale researcher in the National Marine Mammal Lab in Seattle and vocal critic of the first population genetic study, said
the low end of the new estimated range nearly overlaps with a few of the traditional estimates.
Regardless of the historical number of gray whales, the oceans have changed since the days when "humans started killing them and mucking with their
ecosystem," he said.
The gray whale population plummeted to 17,400 after starving whales began washing ashore in 1999 and 2000.
Scientists believe the rapid warming of Arctic waters has frayed a seafloor carpet of crustaceans in the Bering Sea that has long been a food staple
for gray whales.
The skinny whales are back this year, along with a further retreat of the crustaceans.
"Setting a larger recovery target based upon environmental conditions several centuries ago is kind of irrelevant if the modern ecosystem can't
support that many animals," Clapham said.
ken.weiss@latimes.com
karen.kaplan@latimes.com
Bedman
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shari
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Brilliant study...and makes alot of sense...I never bought the idea that the gray population could rebound back to it's original estimated size in
only 50 years...do the math!!! Can't happen unless they were breeding like rabbits. So this makes much more sense. Now about skinny whales...I first
started noticing them in 1994 in Mag Bay where there were a bunch of em. I have personally witnessed the problem of tourism interfering with
traditional gray whale feeding patterns...whales feed constantly during their stay in the north and tour boats would place themselves in the middle of
their feeding area which caused the whales to stop feeding and go hide in the kelp beds..with the increase in whale watching there were boats around
ALL day long from dawn till dark so these animals were not getting their necessary feeding time in. Next is the pollution problem, whales were washing
up dead and their deaths linked to toxins on the sea floor from areas like belliingham bay in washington...toxins fall to the bottom and accumulate in
the areas where whales traditionally feed on their northern migration. The Valdez oil spill probably didn't help much either as the bottom takes years
to recover...gray whales being bottom feeders are much more suseptible to pollution problems as they feed on amphipods and little critters in the
sand...which have high accumulations of toxins. Also commercial fisheries such as geoducks(which are abundant in the same areas where grays feed)
trashes a whales feeding bay. Clear cut logging also destroys the rich feeding grounds...most of the traditional feeding areas along Vancouver Island
occur where a nice big stream flows into the ocean in a small bay...the fresh water source somehow makes the perfect conditions for whale food to be
present...but clearcutting destroys these streams and silts up the bottom so the whale food dies.....sooo amigos, there are lots of factors affecting
the gray whales food and feeding areas...so all of you who want to protect whales should be looking into where they feed instead of San Ignacio lagoon
where only a very small number of whales go to have sixx! San Ignacio is not the major birthing area...only a few calves are born there. I'm all for
protecting whales but the general public needs to be better informed as to what the REAL problems are affecting gray whale survival.
Thank you so much for bringing this study to our attention..keep up the info sharing amigos.
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Crusoe
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A recent article in The Peninsula Daily News from Port Angeles, Wa. is reporting the kill of a gray whale by some Maka indians off Cape Flattery. It
states that the hunters had no legal permit and were just plain tired of waiting for the Federal Dept. of Fisheries to rule on an appeal by the tribe
"Elders" to their aboriginal rights to kill whales off their coast. No human bieng has the right to kill a whale. Permit or no permit period!!!!!!!!!!
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Debra
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Interesting............ USA Today had a simlar artical, but, reports that they were wrong on the first estimated numbers and are saying it's more
like 100,000. I must have misread something somewhere, better go take another look. 
Mean people suck!
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Barry A.
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Once again, Shari is "right on"!!!!
Thank you Shari for a brilliant "piece", and for your sharing of your insight and relevant information in language that we all can understand and
enjoy.
Barry
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mtgoat666
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
Next is the pollution problem, whales were washing up dead and their deaths linked to toxins on the sea floor from areas like belliingham bay in
washington...toxins fall to the bottom and accumulate in the areas where whales traditionally feed on their northern migration. The Valdez oil spill
probably didn't help much either as the bottom takes years to recover...gray whales being bottom feeders are much more suseptible to pollution
problems as they feed on amphipods and little critters in the sand...which have high accumulations of toxins. Also commercial fisheries such as
geoducks(which are abundant in the same areas where grays feed) trashes a whales feeding bay. |
I thought the toxin accumulation problem was only found in whales like orcas, and not a problem in grays and pelagic filter feeders.
I think the exxon valdez crude impacts in sediment are probably far smaller area than natural petroleum seeps such as along CA coast, unsure if valdez
would have affected grays.
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Crusoe
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Again.....The Peninsula Daily News from Port Angeles, Wa. is reporting that the Makah indian perpetrators shot the 30ft. gray whale with a 50 cal.
cannon,and she went straight to the bottom and is now just rolling around dead on the bottom drifting with the currents in 200ft of water. So trajic.
Such a waste.
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shari
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Mr.Goat: a gray whale mortality on Vancouver Island was caused by toxic poisoning...apparently the autopsy revealed that the toxins found in the body
were the same as found in Bellingham Bay. Gray whales being bottom feeders are much more suseptible to toxic poisoning, unlike pelagic filter feeders.
Other whales consume toxic fish but gray whales eat the critters low down on the food chain and more directly affected by pollution.
Another note about stinky whale breath...it's totally true...but it depends on what they are eating (like us and garlic) Also sick whales have nasty
bad breath. As I looked for whales alot in the fog, we located them not only by listening for spouts but smelling their breath too....which smelled
different depending on what was on the menu that day!
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CaboRon
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Crusoe
A recent article in The Peninsula Daily News from Port Angeles, Wa. is reporting the kill of a gray whale by some Maka indians off Cape Flattery. It
states that the hunters had no legal permit and were just plain tired of waiting for the Federal Dept. of Fisheries to rule on an appeal by the tribe
"Elders" to their aboriginal rights to kill whales off their coast. No human bieng has the right to kill a whale. Permit or no permit period!!!!!!!!!!
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Yea, the dirtbags fired rounds from a 50 cal machine gun at the whale.
I think we should declare open season on these poachers.
-CaboRon
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Sharksbaja
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Total slimebags, what a great way to show your sovereignty.
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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