JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
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China, the US, and Iraqi oil.
Lets move ahead 20 yrs into the future, the year is 2023, Europe is doing well and its bigger as more nations are accepted into the union, Latin
America has made progress, but still lags behind, and Africa is virtually the same. The world seems fairly normal except for one region of the world,
Asia. Greater China is now the biggest economy on earth, its the largest consumer of oil, its constructing its own military aircraft, submarines,
missiles, and aircraft carriers. The Chinese have a robust space program after achieving manned flights and its developing its own version of the
Space shuttle.
Does it seem unreal? The awnser is no.
Greater China is expected to pass the US as the worlds largest economy in 2012.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_49/b3811010....
Its expected to be the second largest oil consumer by 2020
http://www.nationalstrategy.com/nsr/v10n3Spring01/100302.htm
China is currently building its first indigenous fighter aircraft and desinging a future one to rival the USAF F22 Raptor.
http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/aircraft/fighter/j10.asp
China is currently developing and constructing Nuclear submarines capable of launching nuclear strikes in the U.S. west coast.
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/094.asp
China has an underestimated space program and its expected to launch a Manned Chinese space flight this year.
http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/news/science/0103/02chinasp...
China is treathening US world dominance in the next 20 yrs and even more in the next 50 yrs, and while the US is helpless to stop Chinese economic and
military development, it does have one very strong card it can use in the future, the energy card.
China has limited oil reserves in its territory, it currently is the 6th largest oil producer in the world, it imports about 7 million barrels of oil
a day, and all of it from the persian gulf, and it has been a net importer of oil since 1993. While US oil consumption increases by about 1% a year,
Chinese gains are closer to 6.5% yearly, making them a future mayor player in the worlds oil market (it already is). Currently the the strategic oil
reserves in China is surprisingly thin: less than a three-day stock, making it a major national security problem since the US has a 3 month reserve.
What would all this mean by 2049? by 2049, China will become the military might, however, every single drop of crude oil demanded that year, estimated
about 10 mbo per day, will have to be imported mainly from the middle east if no additional proven reserves are discovered domestically (wich is a
long shot). Therefore, it is no surprise why China is building up its global military projection capability in order to secure the oil supply from
other states.
Thats where the US and Iraq comes into play, you see Iraqs reserves contain 112 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second largest in the
world (behind Saudi Arabia) along with roughly 220 billion barrels of probable and possible resources. Iraq's true resource potential may be far
greater than this. Add to that the fact that Saudi Arabia (including half of the Saudi-Kuwaiti "Neutral Zone") contains 264.2 billion barrels of
proven oil reserves (more than one-fourth of the world total) and up to 1 trillion barrels of ultimately recoverable oil and you start to get the
picture of why it is of the outmost importance for the US to control Iraqi oil.
The other big players in middle eastern oil are Kuwait, with contains 96.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves or roughly 9% of the world's total
oil reserves, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with reserves of 98 billion barrels, or nearly 10%, of the world's proven oil reserves. Both of who
are already very closely aligned with the USA.
The conclusion to this is that China will become the worlds biggest military and economic power by the middle of the century, and the only thing
standing betwen the muscles of China and the second economy in the world, is oil. Heres a list of the top 6 nations and its oil reserves in billions
of barrels:
Saudi Arabia: 264.2 billion barrels
Iraq: 112 billion barrels
UAE: 98 billion barrels
Kuwait: 96.5 billion barrels
Iran: 90 billion barrels
Venezuela: 77.7 billion barrels
The US currently and effectively controls thru partnerships and investment the oil output of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and to an extend Venezuela,
thats 536.4 billion barrels of the worlds top 6 oil reserves from a total of 738.4 . And thats why controlling
Iraqs oil is so important, 112 Billions of additional barrels of Iraqi would bring the total to 648.4 billion barrels. Giving the
US not only oil and a very good economic trophy, but defacto control over middle east oil output, a card to be used in future defense against a
thirsty and powerful giant.
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reefrocket
Nomad
Posts: 224
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Idaho
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Thanks Jesse for the post. I have for years told people that China was and is going to be the most Dangers country on our planet and refuse to buy
their products even if cheaper in price. The glut of AK-47 and SKS-47 that for years came to this country and others by the container full were
manufactured by China by the company called Norinco this was/is a company owned by the China police/military. China has no copy
right agreement with the US or world and have made MILLIONS stealing technoledgy from the world and selling this counterfit product. Every thing from
music, Microsoft operating systems, ect. They treat their people like they are just a resorce to be used like under feed mules if they get sick their
left to just die. They are the ones that built the phyco nation of North Korea. And through them passed missile technology out like candy for sale.
Note to Doug - thank you again and again for this board where political topics and world happenings may be discussed and posted.
[Edited on 4-1-2003 by reefrocket]
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 5001
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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I'm sure Jesse meant to add about how concerned the residents of the cities bordering California, such as Tijuana, Tecate and Mexicali would be about
the possible vulnerability they would have if there was a catasrophic attack to the North.
Jesse & ReefRocket:
Sent you a U2U, let me know if you have any questions.
[Edited on 1-4-2003 by BajaNomad]
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
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Stephanie Jackter
Senior Nomad
Posts: 566
Registered: 11-3-2002
Location: Arizona
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Baja is affected by world events, but do we have to make everything directly related?
Doug,
I know this is a Baja board and I'd like to make every thought I have center around Baja, but that's not the way the human brain works. I go on these
boards for some sort of fraternity and comradery with other people and am fascinated by their political views vis a vis Mexico and other topic (and I
can tell by the stuff you've posted it interests you too). What unites us on this board and others is going to be our love of Baja, but having to
limit what we share to just Baja not only limits a macro perspective of events that directly or peripherally affect the whole world including Baja but
also makes us all seem like one dimensional human beings, and even no dimensional human beings when it comes to all the posts put up by "anonymous".
I'm not here to be anonymous. I'm here to get to know people. I sure wish there could be a venue where I could talk about Baja and other political
issues affecting the world.
I'm very concerned right now about a growing vigilante movement and the attendant racism that goes with it here in Tucson and around the border with
Sonora, but have felt constrained by the fact that only Baja topics are allowed. I spend a lot of time going to Nogales on clothes and blanket runs
and see a kind of poverty that overwhelms me every time I go there. It's not a Baja topic though. I sure wish I could find a place where I could
speak freely without having to constantly modify what I comment on to make sure that it has a tiny thread of something in it that has to do with Baja
whether the story really is specifically about Baja or not. It becomes totally artificial and contrived after a while . Please, please, could you
possibly consider donating a tiny space on this board where we can talk about "miscellaneous" or "politics at large" together? I would sure love it
and if it was taking up too much space, you could just delete every week or so. How about it, Doug? Thanks for your consideration of the possibility
anyway. - Stephanie
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reefrocket
Nomad
Posts: 224
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Idaho
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Thank you Doug for the tackful reminder of this boards perpose. I should have included the economical portion that would have been more Baja related.
As Chinas' populace is so repressed and poor the moving of many of the present manufacturing facilities from the US to Mex. are now moving to China.
------ at this point I almost fell into an other rant. But will conclude with a wish for the people of Baja and of Mex. May 'the Great Spirit' look
upon you with kindness in the comming years.
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Braulio
Nomad
Posts: 321
Registered: 11-7-2002
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Excellent point reefrocket.
The relocation of maquiladora plants to China began way before this latest economic slowdown in the US. In fact some of the maquiladoras that have
remained are now assembling products made with components manufactured in China. That is they have remained in Mexico only to give China access to
the US market.
As far as the oil thing goes I'm optimistic that new technologies are online to replace oil and make the oil crisis thing moot - I don't know when -
but it's not that far off. The real power lies in new technologies and fresh ideas. Totalitarian regimes will always be chasing yesterdays
technologies just to survive. Many of China's best and brightest people are now working in the US.
Mexico's future in the oil business is really kind of scary. Mexico's reserves have actually been downgraded in recent years. In 20-30 years
Mexico may not be exporting much at all.
Braulio
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DONDAN
Newbie
Posts: 2
Registered: 2-3-2003
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Why being threaten by Cina?
Why not collaberate with here for the benefit of the whole world? 
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reefrocket
Nomad
Posts: 224
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Idaho
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DONDAN I am sorry but I am unable to understand what you are saying here " Why not collaberate with here for the benefit of
the whole world?" If English is not your primary language then I understand. If it 'is' then you should reread your post and word it more
correctly. Do you want 'us' (the posters here, the USA, Baja Mexico (the area that is supposed to be of concern in all post here) or all the above
mentioned to 'collaberate'? With whom do you want to 'collaberate'? China?
Sorry but this isn't the forum to ask this question but --- Just why in the 4377 would China give a fat rats burro about the whole world?
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