Coatlallope
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Economist predicts another Mexican revolution
http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/253411/mexico_the_wi...
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Mexico: The Winds of Revolt
Walter Molano | Aug 27, 2008
The Mexican economy is a sea of relative tranquility in a convulsed world. Economic activity grew about 3% y/y in second quarter, exceeding most
forecasts. The budget surplus was $8.5 billion during the same period, and Mexico is slowly diversifying its exports away from its North American
partner. Mexican industry is booming, despite the downturn north of the border. Higher shipping costs are reducing competitive pressures from Asia,
and the problems in Detroit are breathing new life into the Maquila sector. North American automobile manufacturers are moving more of their
operations to Mexico in order to avoid higher medical and environmental costs. Therefore, the economy appears sound. However, a closer look at the
situation reveals several social impasses that need to be resolved if Mexico is ever going to move up the development ladder. Unfortunately, the only
way to overcome these obstacles could be with revolutionary change.
The 10th year of the last two centuries marked revolutionary episodes in Mexico. In 1810, Mexico was the richest and most important colony of the
Spanish Viceroyalties. However, the creoles were frustrated with Spain’s mercantilistic system. They were not able to trade with other nations. The
colony was prevented from exporting its silver to the lucrative Asian market. At the same time, it had to buy all of its manufactured goods from
Spanish merchants—thus inflating costs. Attempts to convince the crown to reform the mercantilistic system were dismissed. However, Napoleon’s
invasion and occupation of Spain was the perfect opportunity to shake off the imperial yoke. A century later, Mexico again found itself with a booming
economy, but with serious social pressures. The Mexican economy was under the command of a group of technocrats, known as Los Scientificos, who
implemented reforms to attract foreign investment. The investment initiatives soon put most of the productive sectors under the control of foreign
companies and investors. They dominated the sugar and agricultural regions in the south, frustrating a large part of the indigenous peasant community.
Multinationals controlled the mining, oil, transportation and communication sectors—shunting aside local elites. They obstructed attempts by labor
unions to organize. Efforts to petition the government to provide more opportunities for peasants, local business leaders and labor unions were
ignored. Therefore, revolutionary fervor spread across Mexico, and the country was soon under a hail of gunpowder and lead. Today, the Mexican economy
appears sound, but it is under the firm grip of the victors of the revolution. Much of the agricultural land is held by indigenous farming communes.
Output and productivity levels are low. Essential services are under the monopolistic command of local business leaders, who retard competition and
efficiency. At the same time, the death grip of the labor unions over the energy and electricity sectors are preventing investment and modernization.
These narrow interest groups are preventing the development of the Mexican economy. Repeated attempts to introduce reforms were thwarted, thus fanning
the fires of social unrest
Today, cracks are visible on the Mexican veneer. Violence is raging, as frustration from the lack of economic opportunities forces people to resort to
narcotrafficking and kidnapping as a way to survive. So-called revolutionary groups are reappearing, blowing up pipelines and extorting businesses. In
less than two years, Pemex will squeeze the last remaining oil out of Cantarell. This will be a body blow to the government’s fiscal accounts. The
monopoly rents generated in telecommunications, media and cement may have produced some of the wealthiest men on the planet, but it saddled the
economy with enormous costs and bottlenecks. The unwillingness of the victors of the Mexican Revolution to give quarter means that they will probably
have to be dislodged by force. Unfortunately, the clock is running out. With less than two years to go until the 10th year of the new millennium,
history suggests that another bloody revolution may be somewhere on the horizon. |
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Udo
Elite Nomad
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VIVA LA REVOLUCION!
Udo
Youth is wasted on the young!
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
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Oh good....A revolution and an insurgency at the same time. I'm gonna need a program to follow this one.
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bacquito
Super Nomad
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Mood: jubilado
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I have traveled Mexico for years and I believe a revolution has taken place.
There appears to be more opportunity, better infrastructure, a better political environment, and greater hope. Yes, corruption exist but it also exist
north of the boarder . Frankly, I wish the best for Mexico.
bacquito
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Dave
Elite Nomad
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Not quite but...
| Quote: |
In less than two years, Pemex will squeeze the last remaining oil out of Cantarell. |
Mexico is on track to become a net oil importer by 2014. Then the s**t will hit the fan.
Currently, oil accounts for 33% of Mexico's tax base.
Sad thing is that Mexico has billions of proven reserves. Just not the money or technology to get at it. Mexico's pride in preserving its patrimony
will be its undoing.
There will be blood in the streets.
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Mango
Senior Nomad
Posts: 685
Registered: 4-11-2006
Location: Alta California &/or Mexicali
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bajaquito - I agree with you. Mexico's best days are ahead of her.
I've also traveled all over Mexico for years and the changes have been almost overwhelmingly positive for the locals throughout the country. There is
still a long ways to go; but, alas every country has a long way to go.
The sky already fell a century ago... The revolution was so bloody, so long, and so brutal.. nobody wants to do part two. I've met people that
fought in it, taken bullets in it, were freed by it. Even today, Mexico has not forgotten it's brutal past and hard won present.
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Woooosh
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Who vetted cantelopes...Falin-McBush? Do they carry salmonella too?
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Mango
Senior Nomad
Posts: 685
Registered: 4-11-2006
Location: Alta California &/or Mexicali
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Pretty soon someone will start cutting and pasting insults they found online.. at least THAT might be original for about 5 minutes..
Cutting/pasting and personal attacks belong in grade school... not on Baja Nomads.
To all of you... cheers. Relax and have a moment of zen or something.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
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Vetted?  For posting on this forum? Prolonged exposure to Benzene is known to have adverse affects. Thought processes, decision-making among them are impacted.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
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vandenberg! You been sniffing gas?
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Mango
Senior Nomad
Posts: 685
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Location: Alta California &/or Mexicali
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Mood: Bajatastic
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| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
Worried....can't find my waders for protection of all this wisdom.
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You might be onto something.. Official Baja Nomad hip waders, just might turn out to be a great seller on the online store here.
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Mango
Senior Nomad
Posts: 685
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Location: Alta California &/or Mexicali
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Well, It would be nice to see a few "Bigger Men" around here that would just let stuff roll off of them...
We've just had our share of "Newbie's" showing up, posting negative news, and tossing insults about without really contributing anything positive,
having honest questions, or valuable input. Some of the regulars, myself included, are a bit sensitive to that. It seems that the last few months we
get a new one every few days and it just keeps going on and on.
I'm not above it all myself; but, I try to keep it civil. I've called a few people a few things in the past... and honestly.. I'd be the first one to
tell them to their face I'm sorry, listen to their point of view, and buy the first round. I may still disagree with someone; but, also see value in
trying to understand or relate to their point of view or perception of reality.
I would suggest doing so yourself...especially until you get to know those in the "Cantina" I've been in a lot of strange cantinas all over Mexico
throughout the years. I've stopped a few records with screeches while walking in and had friends for life before walking out.
You never know.. maybe I'll be buying you a beer someday, then again.. maybe I'll just sit in the corner and wait it out.
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CaboRon
Ultra Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
Oh good....A revolution and an insurgency at the same time. I'm gonna need a program to follow this one. |
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tjBill
Senior Nomad
Posts: 516
Registered: 10-6-2007
Location: Tijuana
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Sorry, the above article is from an Economist, not the Economist Magazine which is one of the most high quality news magazines.
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LancairDriver
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Change the wording around a little and the article could apply to the current situation in the US today.
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