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sanquintinsince73
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American Military Intervention?
Sedena: red alert over possible U.S. intervention.
Sunday, December 5, 2010 | Borderland Beat Reporter Gerardo
Revista Contralinea
Focos rojos en Sedena ante posible intervención de EU
Autor: Zósimo Camacho
Active duty generals and colonels that occupy operational commands in the Mexican Army express concern over possible U.S. military intervention in
Mexico. They are frustrated by the politics of Felipe Calderón, who they see as overly obedient to the Pentagon, and warn that a “scenario” is being
constructed that will lead to U.S military intervention in Mexico.
They note that some of the chaos and violence in Mexican cities is induced from outside the country with the consent of the federal government.
National security experts agree that conditions are being created to force a "closer cooperation" by the military of both countries.
On June 18th of this year, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), in a report titled “The Globalization of Crime” called drug gangs
operating in Mexico “transnational organized crime superpowers”. This fact scarcely merited a line in the inside pages of some print media.
However, officers from the G2 Section of the Mexican Army (in charge of military intelligence work) were filled with gloom. They see the arrival of
U.S. troops in the country as imminent, a demand from hardliners in the U.S. Department of Defense. The report was seen as another justification for
intervention.
Long accustomed to a code of silence with civilians and unwilling to comment on disagreements within the armed forces, military officers are now
expressing their unease to the media. They note that some of the violence that has erupted in recent weeks may have been "instigated." And they accuse
the government of Felipe Calderon Hinojosa of preparing the "stage" for an open U.S. intervention.
Military Intelligence officers claim to have information that the car bomb attacks (one in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, on July 16, and two more in
Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas, on August 26, 2010) may not be the work of drug gangs. Furthermore, they may not have been perpetrated by Mexicans.
"It is not the modus operandi of the cartels or armed groups with political demands," says one of the divisional officers, seeking his identity be
kept private. He adds that in military circles there is concern over the destabilization of the country and the federal government's actions that
appear to favor, rather than contain, the insecurity.
The revelations by active duty Army officers to Contralínea reporters serve as a “pressure relief valve” and are a sign of tensions percolating within
Mexico’s insular military.
Acccording to Dr. Guillermo Garduño, a specialist in military affairs attached to the Autonomous Metropolitan University and lecturer at the National
Defense, the military is desperate because the nation’s civilian leadership "has no idea what the Armed Forces actually are."
Mexico has not created a civilian elite that knows Mexico’s Army, Navy or Air Force in depth.
According to the generals and colonels who requested annonymity, the supposed "strategy" to allow entry of U.S. troops into Mexico with lower social
costs would have two components: the intenal, where conditions of degeneration and instability are created so that Mexican society itself demands more
"security" regardless of the origin of the "help"; and the external, where other countries consider that the intervention would be "humanitarian" to
counter drug cartels that have overwhelmed the Mexican state.
Increasing Pressures
“The Globalization of Crime” study released this year by the UNODC assessed the threat of transnational organized crime, saying the "superpower" of
transnational organized crime has generated a new turf war between gangs for territories and trafficking routes, particularly in Mexico. The report
also examines how “transnational organized crime and instability amplify each other to create vicious circles in which countries or even subregions
may become locked.”
Even before the UNODC report, the United States Armed Forces released in January 2009the now infamous “JOE 2008-Joint Operating Environment:
Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force” warned that the Mexican government may be unable to maintain stability in the coming years.
“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden
collapse: Pakistan and Mexico…."
"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained
assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on
the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland
security alone."
U.S. pressures are rising in tone and number as witnessed by confidential U.S. Embassy cables released by WikiLeaks and through statements by leaders
such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others.
On March 10, 2009, the former director of U.S. National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, said that Mexico did not control its entire territory. By July of
that year, the report “Mexico's Narco-Insurgency and U.S. Counterdrug Policy”, released by the Institute for Strategic Studies-U.S. Army War College,
argued that Mexico was experiencing "a transition from traditional gangsterism of murderers for hire to a terrorist paramilitary employing guerrilla
tactics."
In addition, on November 17th of this year Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security, declared that the Mexican Army had failed in its fight
against drug trafficking in the border city of Ciudad Juárez.
During the second half of 2010, U.S. authorities and the UN has been increasingly blunt: Mexico is unable to control drug trafficking organizations,
and their inefficiency is a threat to security in several regions, including the U.S..
"Everything is falling into place"
Ambassador Henry A. Crumpton, a veteran covert CIA officer who ran the CIA's campaign in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks and former Coordinator for
Counterterrorism at the State Department, acknowledged in an interview with the Wall Street Journal in early September that Mexico has a
"narcoinsurgency." Crumpton added this concept is "particularly incendiary" to the Mexicans due to their fear that the U.S. military will sieze
control of the fight against drugs.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on September 8th of this year, sparked anger in Mexico by comparing its drug-related violence to an insurgency.
“This is a really tough challenge. And these drug cartels are now showing more and more indices of insurgency. All of a sudden car bombs show up that
weren’t there before. So it’s becoming – it’s looking more and more like Colombia looked 20 years ago where the narco traffickers controlled certain
parts of the country,” responded Clinton to a question asked after a speech to the Council of Foreign Affairs.
"Everything is falling into place," says one general interviewed by Contralínea requested his name be kept private. Calling drug trafficking “a
superpower” is to regard Mexico's armed forces as insufficient to fight a "global threat." The danger of an intervention is real, he adds.
Indeed, U.S. officials consulted by Wall Street Journal explained that "the Mexican government is growing increasingly open to greater cooperation,
because the security situation is getting worse." In remarks published on September 10th of this year, the Mexican ambassador to Washington, Arturo
Sarukhan, said "We have encouraged the United States improve and deepen cooperation with Mexico."
Soft intervention
Experts say that since the Mexican Revolution the country has not been on the verge of a U.S. military intervention until now. All agree that the more
destabilized the country becomes, the greater the chance that U.S. Marines will "collaborate" in Mexico.
"The intervention is the main theme discussed in intelligence circles in Mexico," said Abelardo Rodriguez Sumano, a researcher at the Center for North
American Studies at the University of Guadalajara.
The specialist in national security issues in Mexico and the United States said that the basis for U.S. intervention would be the “void” left by the
Mexican authorities.
"There is no consensus in the national security structure in terms of the relationship with the United States. We are disjointed in terms of
'collaboration'. Some sectors, such as the Marina (Mexico’s Marines under Naval command) want it. And others, like the Army, are resisting. And as
these disagreements generate strategic gaps, the Americans are going to occupy them. They are sure of what they want for us."
For Dr. Guillermo Garduño, intervention is not an immediate risk, "it's already happening." He adds that the Americans themselves believe their troops
are not needed at this point in time.
"It's their war, but as with most of America’s wars throughout its history, it’s being fought outside their territory. They are already here. Already
involved, but those that give their lives are Mexicans," he said.
Finally, he concedes, "When the Mexican institutions are exhausted, then the Americans will have to respond directly. It's going to happen."
To Jorge Luis Sierra, a specialist in national security and the armed forces, the concern of the Mexican military to a possible U.S. intervention is
not new. The graduate of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, DC explains that after the
attack on the Twin Towers in New York on September 11, 2001, Mexican military intelligence warned that the U.S. wanted to set up military bases in
Mexico.
The warning is reflected in the minutes of a meeting in 2003 on national security attended by elite Mexican Army and Naval staff officers.
For Senator Rene Arce, a member of the Bicameral Commission on National Security, the U.S. has always been involved in Mexican intelligence matters.
Arce adds, "Now they (the Mexican armed forces) want to look very patriotic and stand firm, when what has really upset them is being told that they
violate human rights, that is the problem. The American military and intelligence people are here, but it's very discreet."
Abelardo Rodriguez points out that for hardliners in the U.S. Defense Department, American Marines should have deployed to Mexico months ago.
"It is historically true that once United States forces are installed in a country, it is very difficult for them to leave," he warns.
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motoged
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It will be interesting to see what surfaces through Wiki Leak info....
Don't believe everything you think....
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sancho
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I don't have the patience to read all that post,
but US Intervention, NO, unless by some chance
the Mex Cartels would do something
to invite that, I understand Calderon has 2 yrs. left
on his 6 yr. one term. Which at that point, as has been
suggested, things returns to 'normal' in Mex,
that is the Mex Govt backs off the Cartels Business ventures.
The US culture of drug use, for
whatever reason that developed, creates a demand
for drugs and Mex fills that need, whether by their
Country being used as a corridor or production itself.
Not to mention most/all guns are sent to Mex from
the US. I have yet to see any success in the Drug Wars
in Mex are here in the US
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Hook
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This seems more like a justification for a military coup by generals than a reason for a US invasion.
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motoged
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| Quote: | Originally posted by sancho
I don't have the patience to read all that post, but .......blah blah |
That's classic !!!! "I don't know what you said and don't care....BUT here's what I think" !!!
Don't believe everything you think....
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Bajahowodd
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Hook
This seems more like a justification for a military coup by generals than a reason for a US invasion. |
I'm with you on that thought. Zero chance of US invasion of Mexico short of major provocation. Of course, if these idiots want to start taking
pointers out of the Al Qaeda playbook, and start car bombing NOB.... But why would they?
Zero chance that the current government of Mexico will invite us for anything but an advisory role.
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Woooosh
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The WikiLeak cables tell a very different story. US diplomats say Mexico is asking for the US help it is getting, in fact it already depends on US
Military intelligence to be effective. The Mexican military brass is sacred to death of learning anything, being made to cooperate with other Mexican
military departments, or being organized by anyone. They like it the way it is- compartmentalized, closed, possessive of their intel, inherently
corrupt and systemically ineffective. If these military guys are scared of the US Military, they really won't like what their Latin American
neighbors have planned for them.
The US military is the most powerful and best-trained military power on Earth. If Mexican generals are afraid, it is only because they will be the
laughing stock of the world once their full weakness are aired (as in the WikiLeaks). jmho
These are the conspiracy theories that have quickly been formed as result of the Dec 2 WikiLeaks which show the sad state of the Mexican military. I
really don't think the average Mexican sees the USA as a demon any more. They all have friends/relatives NOB who send back money and live good lives.
All they want is public safety and their economy restored so they can live in peace. They know Mexico is broken and would rather have help from the
North, than the dictators to the south for sure.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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sanquintinsince73
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Hook
This seems more like a justification for a military coup by generals than a reason for a US invasion. |
Exactly what I was thinking. Especially if these Generals are making their opinions/fears public.
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
If these military guys are scared of the US Military, |
They may be more afraid of the public reaction to anything that resembles collusion with the US military and government. The people have had it
pounded into their heads that the US is the cause of all their woes. So many actually believe it.
The country is courting collapse and a public that senses betrayal from their leaders is capable of anything and it would probably start with anarchy.
This is all new to the military. For years, their primary, almost only objective was to protect the president. They had no wars to work on. The
generals built fiefdoms and had private agendas.
Along comes an insurgency and they don't know how to act in concert.
Mexico is close to being isolated. Then they will welcome US assistance.
Until then, it's hands off.
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
If these military guys are scared of the US Military, |
They may be more afraid of the public reaction to anything that resembles collusion with the US military and government. The people have had it
pounded into their heads that the US is the cause of all their woes. So many actually believe it.
The country is courting collapse and a public that senses betrayal from their leaders is capable of anything and it would probably start with anarchy.
This is all new to the military. For years, their primary, almost only objective was to protect the president. They had no wars to work on. The
generals built fiefdoms and had private agendas.
Along comes an insurgency and they don't know how to act in concert.
Mexico is close to being isolated. Then they will welcome US assistance.
Until then, it's hands off. |
exactly right Dennis. I would add (you may not agree) that the time to resist outside help has passed, with three areas of Mexico (including TJ)
recently (and likely currently) being considered for martial law. The time has come for Mexico to find leadership from somewhere before it is too
late. Clearly there is no one clean and strong enough to lead. Some are clean, and some are strong- but too few are both.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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LancairDriver
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Very unlikely the US will get involved in a ground pounder war in Mexico unless there is a drastic change in border violence. Given that we are
loosing the war in Afghanistan and Iraq is getting more unstable, plus the deficit we are running, makes it even more unlikely. Probably more
material and intelligence military aid to Mexico will be forthcoming.
Going into Mexico with US troops and kicking down doors and the inevitable killing of innocents by US troops would quickly change Mexican sentiment
toward the US, and result in a real disaster.
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by LancairDriver
Going into Mexico with US troops and kicking down doors and the inevitable killing of innocents by US troops would quickly change Mexican sentiment
toward the US, and result in a real disaster. |
Within the US as well. Mexico already has too many divisions in place.
This is becoming uncomfortable brainstorming for me.
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by LancairDriver
Going into Mexico with US troops and kicking down doors and the inevitable killing of innocents by US troops would quickly change Mexican sentiment
toward the US, and result in a real disaster. |
Within the US as well. Mexico already has too many divisions in place.
This is becoming uncomfortable brainstorming for me. |
I don't ever see the US military going door to door to rout the narcos. I think in addition to intel, joint training exercises and perhaps
joint-operated checkpoints (border regions) would be as visible as the US military would get. To my knowledge joint exercises with Mexico have never
occurred. They have also never occurred between Mexican military factions either- no trust and no sharing intel. If the situation in Mexico
deteriorated beyond where joint training and perhaps checkpoints are needed- we would need all the US military on the border to stop a tsunami of
millions of Mexicans from flooding into the USA.
The Mexican people of today are not the Mexican people of five years ago. They have real-time access to information via the web. They see "the
truth" in BlogDelNarco YouTube videos and no longer believe what they read- because journalism has already been compromised.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
I don't ever see the US military going door to door to rout the narcos. |
That wouldn't work for anybody. I mean....what do narcos look like? Nothing short of aggressive, painful interrogation methods will point out which
doors to knock on. Mexico has in the past displayed an expertise with this method. Why stop now.
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BajaGringo
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I agree that the general population here would not take well to the idea of armed, US troops south of the border. There are more than a few down here
however, who believe that is already happening, explaining some of the more recent military success in killing/capturing narco leaders.
Who knows???
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mulegemichael
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narcos are so easy to spot..come on...there they are..right there!
dyslexia is never having to say you\'re yrros.
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akshadow
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Where is the proof of this statement. do you not think there are major numbers of arms that are getting out of the Mexican armies hands? From
further south in Latin America? With money you can buy arms.
| Quote: | Originally posted by sancho
Not to mention most/all guns are sent to Mex from
the US. I have yet to see any success in the Drug Wars
in Mex are here in the US |
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JESSE
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Narcos are not the main problem in Mexico, the problem is an extremely corrupt political-business elite that refuses to see the fact that Mexico
cannot stay doing business the same way. They just don't understand, that Mexican society is sick and tired and angry to the point of revolt, and are
willing to do anything, to get out of poverty. To most Mexicans, it is clear that unless your in politics, or belong to a family of the elite business
community, it is virtually impossible to get ahead and forge a successful law abiding future with good honest work. Wich only leaves you with the only
other possible choice, get into the drug business.
This nation is being destroyed BY THE POLITICIANS AND THE BUSINESS ELITE that are completely out of touch with Mexican society. Not the narcos.
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
I agree that the general population here would not take well to the idea of armed, US troops south of the border. There are more than a few down here
however, who believe that is already happening, explaining some of the more recent military success in killing/capturing narco leaders.
Who knows???
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The many include the US diplomats. One of the WikiLeaks cables states the Mexican Navy was acting on information from the United States when it
battled and eventually killed top drug cartel leader Arturo Beltran-Leyva last December.
...and wasn't the US Gov't assisting Mexico in tracking El Teo for many months by his phone calls last year?
[Edited on 12-14-2010 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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JESSE
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| Quote: | Originally posted by akshadow
Where is the proof of this statement. do you not think there are major numbers of arms that are getting out of the Mexican armies hands? From
further south in Latin America? With money you can buy arms.
| Quote: | Originally posted by sancho
Not to mention most/all guns are sent to Mex from
the US. I have yet to see any success in the Drug Wars
in Mex are here in the US |
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The types of weapons narcos use are not used by the mex military, so its not coming from them. And why buy old guns from central america, when you can
buy new ones at cheaper prices at the border. Fact of the matter is, most guns do come from the US.
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