verichip
Banned
Posts: 70
Registered: 3-15-2019
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el ninno, long term rain predictions
Is it going to be a wet winter?
I got rained on today, I got rained on yesterday, I got rained on all last week.
Will Baja be getting lots of rain this winter?
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18392
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 June 2019
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall
and winter (50-55% chance).
During May, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific
Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices indicate the largest positive SST anomalies were within the central Pacific (+1.1°C in Niño-4 and
+0.9°C in Niño-3.4) with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across
180°-100°W) were nearly average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of the month in association with a downwelling
Kelvin wave [Fig. 3]. Thus, anomalies remained positive at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies evident in the
eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak, enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig.
5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and
east-central Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.
The combined averages in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, but individual models span
ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally +0.0°C to +1.0°C; [Fig. 6]). The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower
chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky
picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is
predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55%
chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their
funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional
perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 July 2019.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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BajaRat
Super Nomad
Posts: 1303
Registered: 3-2-2010
Location: SW Four Corners / Bahia Asuncion BCS
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Mood: Ready for some salt water with my Tecate
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They are also predicting a 70% chance of an above normal hurricane season in the eastern pacific.
The El Nino's effect of reducing upper level wind shear and elevated sea surface temperatures give stronger, longer lasting and and more frequent
hurricanes a greater chance on occurring.
Lionel 
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sancho
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2524
Registered: 10-6-2004
Location: OC So Cal
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A couple yrs. back, there was general conscience across
the board, due to 'warm water bubble' in the Pacific
that guaranteed an extremely wet winter here in So. Cal. Result,
not Jack.
Last winter with not a word, 185% of normal snowfall in
the Sierra, predictions?
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verichip
Banned
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Registered: 3-15-2019
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
I see barbra is already out there.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png
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