In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden
collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and
sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of
uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they
could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault
and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the
stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland
security alone.
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