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Mexicali_Kid
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U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on
worldwide security threats.
The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on
the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear
consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. ...
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Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial
about what is happening in Mexico."
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354
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DianaT
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It is probably my computer, but I keep getting the El Paso Times with all the headers, but blank for the article.
What date was this---maybe I can get to it another way---I would like to read the full ariticle.
Thanks
Diane
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BMG
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| Quote: | Originally posted by jdtrotter
It is probably my computer, but I keep getting the El Paso Times with all the headers, but blank for the article.
What date was this---maybe I can get to it another way---I would like to read the full ariticle.
Thanks
Diane |
See if this link works for you. El Paso Times
I think the world is run by C- students.
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DianaT
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BMG
| Quote: | Originally posted by jdtrotter
It is probably my computer, but I keep getting the El Paso Times with all the headers, but blank for the article.
What date was this---maybe I can get to it another way---I would like to read the full ariticle.
Thanks
Diane |
See if this link works for you. El Paso Times |
Thanks--found it---maybe I was not patient enough before. It is an interesting article.
Diane
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JESSE
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That story is a joke.
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David K
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Jesse... on another thread a Nomad wanted to learn some history on the Insurgentes/ Constitucion area... You or family members were north of there at
Santo Domingo, yes? I will give the link to that thread...
... It was Pam... Here's the thread if you can help: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=36322
[Edited on 1-14-2009 by David K]
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BMG
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| Quote: | Originally posted by JESSE
That story is a joke. |
The JOE2008 report (2.4mb pdf file) does contain the following:
| Quote: |
In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden
collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and
sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of
uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they
could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault
and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the
stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland
security alone.
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I think the world is run by C- students.
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BMG
| Quote: | Originally posted by JESSE
That story is a joke. |
The JOE2008 report (2.4mb pdf file) does contain the following:
| Quote: |
In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden
collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and
sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of
uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they
could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault
and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the
stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland
security alone.
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These ridiculous Dr Strangelove doomsday scenarios of military intelligence (oxymarooonic) analysts and pentagon brass that model themselves after
General Ripper and General Turguidson are nonsense that only right wingnit radio pundits believe. BillM will be along shortly to provide caveman
validation of the theory of impending chaos on our doorstep. Yo Bill!
Yes we can!
Peace out!
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Bajahowodd
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So all we need to do now is find those weapons of mass destruction South of the Border and we can invade!
Agree with Jesse, totally. I think that folks in El Paso, in particular are exposed to much more of the stories of near border violence, as Juarez
makes Tijuana appear to be Oz.
Corruption is endemic through all societies. One usually finds that it increases as one works down the ladder from first world to third world
countries. There is virtually no comparison between Pakistan and Mexico. Pakistan is sectarian and tribal. Mexico still has the social glue of
Catholicism. If there is any threat to Mexico, it is probably the ease at which assault weapons and other arms make their way from North of the border
Southward into the hands of the bad guys.
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Woooosh
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The Drudge Report has this link to this article in red letters- so the servers are getting swamped.
"Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone." Like what?
Everyone that can get across to the USA is already there. Do they think Mexicans will overrun the border POE and just flood into San Diego? Well,
maybe that is possible...
And as this "joke" is being read by us... the Pesos hits 14.18 to the dollar! It's down more than 40% in a very short period of time.
It's a "perfect storm" with no country able to help Mexico right now- even if Mexico could admit it has deep problems and needs the help... Calderon
is only talking "ecomonic stimulus" while sending 2000 more troops to Juarez today. He's directed everyone to present Mexico in a positive light.
IMHO Martial Law is next.
I haven't read the 200 new laws being considered to fight the narcos here- but I'm sure civil liberites (what few exist here) will be the first to go-
they always are.
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/13/n11019116...
Destabilizing factors??? Can someone name three things that are stable in Mexico right now?... the pesos, education?, oil revenue?, inflation?,
crime? ...
[Edited on 1-14-2009 by Woooosh]
[Edited on 1-14-2009 by Woooosh]
[Edited on 1-14-2009 by Woooosh]
[Edited on 1-14-2009 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Bajahowodd
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Methinks the sinking peso is more worrisome.
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BajaDove
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Are they saying if the politicians fail the cartels are going to take the country down? If they don't kill each other off first, don't they have all
the money? Aren't they suppose to be generous because they want loyalty? Why can't they buy Mexico out of trouble? The US doesn't need to worry.
If its not where it is, its where it isn\'t.
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaDove
Are they saying if the politicians fail the cartels are going to take the country down? If they don't kill each other off first, don't they have all
the money? Aren't they suppose to be generous because they want loyalty? Why can't they buy Mexico out of trouble? The US doesn't need to worry.
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The doves are the first ones to be eaten alive in war.
If the narcos wanted control of the whole country and Calderon dead they would have done it already. They arrested his top secret service detail for
working with the cartels. There is no one capapble or worthy to fix the problem and the "la Raza" mexican pride metality is still in complete
denial.
I don't think the narcos want it to get that far (failed state) because it's just too much work to run a country that is totally corrupt and stuck on
stupid. It was stuck on stupid so long that the next step is down, not up. There is no upside. The police are uneducated pawns, the prosecutors and
all levels above them are PROVEN corrupt- right up to the presidents own securty detail. Where do you start?
If someone could just find the starting point they could fight back- but there isn't one.
But please continue to visit TJ and Mexico because Calderon says so. When it all hits the fan- I'd rather you be their victim than me.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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BajaGringo
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Woooosh - I am curious though if you see the falling peso becoming an even bigger threat the current state of insecurity if it continues to drop?
I think it is an interesting topic...
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
Woooosh - I am curious though if you see the falling peso becoming an even bigger threat the current state of insecurity if it continues to drop?
I think it is an interesting topic... |
Glenn, IMHO I don't think the two can be seperated at this late point. They happenend independenlty (crime wave expansion and the economic
downturn/peso devaluaton) but created a downward sprial that is hard to pull out of- they will feed off each other until the spiral hits the ground.
I think an important third factor is that Mexico isn't alone in her econimc troubles- every country is vulnerable right now and no one can help when
they are all so fragile.
The world economy and security situation is fragile because it's built on pure speculation and manipulation. Even chest-thumpers like Chavez and Putin
are eating their hawkish words of last summer. What did a barrel of crude close at today compared to last summer? Ukraine simply turned the tap off
on Russian exports (if was naiive of the EU to think gas flow would never be disrupted when 90% of the pipelines run through the Ukraine from Russia-
and that region is a powder keg since the whole Georgia thing. What happens if Russia uses force against the Ukraine to get gas flowing to Europe?
How quick will they forget history? What side would everyone support? And would anyone even notice if Mexico disappeared while the EU was freezing
to death for lack of gas?
The whole political/economic world is so fragile. The world allowed crude oil speculation to create political power that no longer exists. The world
allowed financial wizards to turn the stock exchange and banking systems into an unregulated casino- where earnings (P/E) valuations have no
correlation to a companies true value or it's stock price. And then we built our retirement systems (401ks) and pension funds around both these sick
animals. Does anyone really think the $7 Billion in risky USA foreclosure mortgage loans caused this whole mess- or was it just the excuse needed to
get it all out in the open a $Trillion later.
This all applies to Mexico because how can Mexico create economic growth with low crude prices and declining exports worldwide? It can't and the peso
is the victim. I don't think the peso will crash- but it will fall to a level that matches Mexico's ability to raise capital for investments and give
a return on that investment- competing in the world economy. When people run to the Peso for safety instead of the dollar, euro or whatever- it will
stabilize. More jobs lost in the meantime is more lost opportunites for Mexicans.
The USA market system self-adjusted home prices downward by almost 40%- Have you seen that in Mexico? Nope- they just board them up, lay everyone
off and wait it out. They were using advanced deposits to get that far and so what if the project takes another decade to finish (unless it was your
deposit). In the USA jobs are being lost, but companies are changing what they make and how and where they make them. Won't happen here. When
peole lose their jobs they lose hope, they lose faith in what used to be true and crime prospers. In strong economic times crime takes hold slowly-
in hard times crime rises to the surface IMHO.
Your thoughts Mr. Campbell?
[Edited on 1-15-2009 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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BajaGringo
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Great points - making me think here...
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Paulclark
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Is the peso getting weaker or is the USA dollar getting stronger against all world currencies? Look at the Canadian dollar -- It has dropped
substantially -- and the Euro? Have any Mexican banks failed or in danger of failing like multiple US banks have or are the banking regulation
realistic and conducive to a strong banking system? -- food for thought.
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BajaGringo
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Don't confuse me - I am still pondering Woooosh's points...
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robrt8
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Big problems with your speculation, Mr Wooosh.
A lower peso makes Mexico's products equally more competitive.
The travel industry, a huge employer, becomes more competitive.
And don't say people aren't traveling to Mexico, because they are. Just maybe not your neck of the wooooods.
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BajaGringo
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But no matter how competitive the travel industry is, if folks don't feel safe to come what good is it???
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