Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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El Nino Returning?
50% chance of El Nino developing in late 2004......I know its hard on some areas of the world but Baja and California need the rain...and those
hurricane swells and warm water! Good for fishing too, I think.
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Debra
Super Nomad
Posts: 2101
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Port Orchard Wa./Bahia de Los Angeles BC
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Being selfish (I hope)
Warm water in the Sea of Cortez and snow at home! (too much to hope for I'm sure 
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
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All i know is that this summer has been relatively cool compared to the last one, i was miserable at work last year with the very high heat.
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thebajarunner
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3732
Registered: 9-8-2003
Location: Arizona....."Free at last from crumbling Cali
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Mood: muy amable
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strange weather
Been a strange weather summer in Central Cal. as well.
Lost all of a fairly decent snow pack about 6 weeks too soon, then had monster thunderstorms with tons of local rain across the Sierras for a month.
Cool July, never turned on the air, now this week three 100+ days in a row.
Yeah, a wet, wet winter would be terrific for our snow pack, for the flowers of Baja, and everything in between,
keep fingers crossed.
Baja Arriba!!
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 65175
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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It's that damn Global COOLING!!! 
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gringorio
Senior Nomad
Posts: 812
Registered: 4-10-2004
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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... But No El Ni?o Yet
Warm Pacific Water Wave Heads East, But No El Ni?o Yet
Recent sea-level height data from the U.S./France Jason altimetric satellite during a 10-day cycle ending July 27, 2004, show that weaker than normal
trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during June have triggered an eastward moving, warm Kelvin wave. In the central equatorial
Pacific, this "warm wave" appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between
180 degrees W and 130 degrees W. These types of events, should they continue and persist into the fall, can herald the beginnings of an El Ni?o
episode.
"Although an El Ni?o would be welcome in the American west which definitely needs the rainfall, it's way too early to even begin talking about a
possible El Ni?o," said JPL oceanographer Dr. Bill Patzert. "Scientists will continue to monitor the Pacific closely for further signs of possible El
Ni?o formation and intensity," said Dr. Lee-Lueng Fu, JPL Jason Project Scientist.
The image shows a red area in the central equatorial Pacific that is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the
eastern equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue areas) continue that are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below
normal. Along the equator, the red sea surface heights equate to sea surface temperature departures greater than one degree Celsius (two degrees
Fahrenheit).
These images show sea surface height anomalies with the seasonal cycle (the effects of summer, fall, winter, and spring) removed. The differences
between what we see and what is normal for different times and regions are called anomalies, or residuals. When oceanographers and climatologists view
these "anomalies" they can identify unusual patterns and can tell us how heat is being stored in the ocean to influence future planetary climate
events. Each image is a 10-day average of data, ending on the date indicated.
The U.S. portion of the Jason mission is managed by JPL for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. Research on Earth's oceans using Jason
and other space-based capabilities is conducted by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise to better understand and protect our home planet.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040805092034.ht...
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surfer jim
Super Nomad
Posts: 1891
Registered: 8-29-2003
Location: high desert
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Surfers welcome the warm water this event brings....as it means spring suits instead of 4/3 fullsuit...and that is fine with me.....
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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We were at Abreojos in the the last El Nino and the water was 85 degrees! And 75 degrees in the Sisters......heaven.
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Mike Humfreville
Super Nomad
Posts: 1148
Registered: 8-26-2003
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I do work for the TOPEX/Jason/Poseidon Project at JPL and thus pay attention (in a minor way) to the data we receive from those satellites. I poked
around a little today and it looks like during July 2004 there was a significant warming activity in the equatorial Pacific. But looking at the
water-temperature maps of August it seems things are pretty much back to normal. If you average all the measures (there are numerous models) it's a
50-50 chance for another El Nino in the near future. My guess is no and if there is one it'll be small. Remember, I'm no scientist.
[Edited on 8-15-2004 by Mike Humfreville]
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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Thanks for the update Mike......still hoping though!
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