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john68
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maybe I'm reading the chart incorrectly, but I believe it is reporting all crime, not violent crime. I think most of us are interested in felonies,
particularly violent crimes.
It's my impression that Baja, particularly BCS, has relatively little violent crime.
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
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Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
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Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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Are we concerned with ALL violent crime or just violent crime directed to/against tourists, or ex-pats (Canadian and/or American)????? 
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajaguy
Are we concerned with ALL violent crime or just violent crime directed to/against tourists, or ex-pats (Canadian and/or American)????? |
Both. Together and seperatly.
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Mengano
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| Quote: | Originally posted by JESSE
Useless and ridiculous info, so your telling me according to that data BCS has a higher crime rate than Juarez, Monterrey and Tijuana?  |
I guess the easiest way to deal with facts that don't fit your world view is to just ignore them or deny them. You are free to post some rebuttal
information. I hear you read Spanish, so here is a link to the entire report:
http://www.cidac.org/esp/uploads/1/CIFRAS.pdf
The first thing you have to understand is that the chart is showing total crime, not just murders. When you have a country where only
1% of crimes are punished (Chart 24 on page 15), it really pays off to be a criminal. From the link:
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El problema más grande que enfrenta la procuración de justicia en México es que el Estado no ha sido capaz de erguirse como una amenaza creíble de
castigo para quien cometa un delito. Desde hace diez años, los índices de impunidad han permanecido estables: sólo uno de cada 100 delitos cometidos
en el país recibe castigo.
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Why don't you translate that for the boys and girls in the peanut gallery?
While you are at it, take a look at the chart on page 4, which shows the number of crime reports per 100,000 people. Baja California is No. 1 in
Mexico with over twice the national average, BCS is No. 6. with 66% more than the national average.
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AASelf
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Not sure who's right, but CNN Mexico tells a different story.
http://mexico.cnn.com/nacional/2011/07/13/baja-california-su...
De los 10 estados con menor índice de delincuencia en México, Baja California Sur es el único ubicado en el norte del país.
Denuncias 2010*
Robos 6,433
Bancos 0
Carreteras 0
Lesiones 1,055
Homicidios 92
Patrimoniales 3,580
Secuestros 1
Violaciones 131
*Fuente: Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública
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dirtbikr
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Location: sacramento
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Mood: start slow....then taper off!
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Here up in Sacramento,NINE people shot in four different instances last night, I'll trade numbers anytime!
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
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Location: Punta Banda
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| Quote: | Originally posted by dirtbikr
Here up in Sacramento,NINE people shot in four different instances last night, I'll trade numbers anytime! |
If the targets were legislators, it was a public service. 
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Jack Swords
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Our near neighbor, Oceano, CA. in San Luis Obispo County (next to Pismo Beach) , population 7000 had a drive-by shooting yesterday, two shot, 17 year
old killed. Reportedly not a gang member. No suspects. San Luis Obispo the "happiest cirty in the US")
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wessongroup
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Mood: Suicide Hot line ... please hold
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Glad to see ya awake Dennis ...
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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| Quote: | Originally posted by wessongroup
Glad to see ya awake Dennis ... |
Well...thank you, Wiley. Very nice of you. 
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Mengano
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| Quote: | Originally posted by lencho
One could just as easily read into the presented information that BCS has one of the highest rates of confidence in the authorities so that crimes get
reported. |
What rationalization would you make for the fact the people in BCS report crimes at 5 times the rate as in the US? Are the people in BCS 5 times more
confident in their police than Americans?
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Mengano
Banned
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Jack Swords
Our near neighbor, Oceano, CA. in San Luis Obispo County (next to Pismo Beach) , population 7000 had a drive-by shooting yesterday, two shot, 17 year
old killed. Reportedly not a gang member. No suspects. San Luis Obispo the "happiest cirty in the US") |
Please explain how that single event relates to the entire US, or even California, and explain how you draw any valid conclusions from your example.
Please note that the statistics in the link are all reported crimes for the entire country of Mexico for an entire year. Thanks, we look for to your
validation of your observations and conclusions drawn therefrom.
Biased sample fallacy
This fallacy is committed when a person draws a conclusion about a population based on a sample that is biased or prejudiced in some manner. It has
the following form:
Sample S, which is biased, is taken from population P.
Conclusion C is drawn about Population P based on S.
The person committing the fallacy is misusing the following type of reasoning, which is known variously as Inductive Generalization, Generalization,
and Statistical Generalization:
X% of all observed A's are B''s.
Therefore X% of all A's are Bs.
The fallacy is committed when the sample of A's is likely to be biased in some manner. A sample is biased or loaded when the method used to take the
sample is likely to result in a sample that does not adequately represent the population from which it is drawn.
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Bajahowodd
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I don't have a good explanation, or rationale for these stats. However, having been frequently in La Paz and Los Cabos for over thirty years, I have
to go with Jesse on this.
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BobY
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Location: Rosarito
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Just squinting at that chart comparing Baja Sur and U.S. average capitated crime rate, it looks like
Baja Sur: 14,500
U.S. 9,800
That isn't a multiple of five, it isn't even double. Am I missing something?
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Mengano
Banned
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BobY
Just squinting at that chart comparing Baja Sur and U.S. average capitated crime rate, it looks like
Baja Sur: 14,500
U.S. 9,800
That isn't a multiple of five, it isn't even double. Am I missing something? |
Yes you are missing a lot. The chart says the US is 3,500, not 9,800. That line marked "EUA" is the US. The line you see marked "Promedio"is 9,800.
But "promedio"is the average crime rate for MEXICO. Will this news be in your next video?
No hay de que.
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