DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
The Fracking End Of Mexico's Horn Of Plenty?
Whazziz, I'm reading in the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and other supposedly responsible-journalism publications?
The USA is going to become a major oil EXPORTER during 2015? Enough crude oil reserves to last 3,000 years? Australia has enough "Frackable Shale" to
feed China's growth until the 25th century?
What's going to happen to Mexico? Thirty five percent of its income is from crude oil.
Any nerds out there that can shed light on this? Boy if this is factual info Mexico is in for one hell of a rough ride. When Cuba liberalizes its
economy, it will devastate Cancun. Hoo Boy...
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
|
desertcpl
Super Nomad
Posts: 2396
Registered: 10-26-2008
Location: yuma,az
Member Is Offline
|
|
Mexico,,is going to get it from all sides
not only with Oil
but from over sea manufacturing
Japan and china, USA how been pulling out of MX complaining
of corruption and thievery
|
|
|
bledito
Nomad
Posts: 420
Registered: 7-6-2013
Member Is Offline
|
|
one of the reasons they're going to pass the article 27 revisions
|
|
|
Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9009
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
|
|
Our consumption peaked around 2005 and really started a deceleration around 2008. The Great Recession was partly to blame but the downturn has
continued.
A big part of this is how "green" we have become with all the conversion to natural gas, low-consumption lighting and all the other alternative energy
sources like wind and solar. Our consumption of oil is actually expected to continue going down. Couple this with big finds in North Dakota, increased
shipments from Canada and new means of extraction and we are sitting pretty in this area.
We actually could have been an exporter much earlier except for treaties we have with countries to buy a specified amount of crude. Oh yeah, and oil
companies are also banned from exporting oil. There is talk of changing that.
Yeah, Mexico better get their act together, especially if some kind of agreement is reached with Iran to allow them to begin selling oil on the open
market. We could see oil challenge the 80.00/barrel mark. Or go lower. I expected it to challenge it sooner than this but this cold winter has kept
demand higher than normal for winter.
Canada, too. They have become very dependent on crude exports. I'm not sure why the value of the Canadian dollar (with respect to the US dollar) has
done so poorly in the last month but it could be related to where people think the price of oil is going. Or, it could just be a side effect of the
Fed's decision to begin "tapering". Many are predicting a REALLY strong US dollar in 2014.
Time to book that vacation to Tuscany you have been putting off!!!!
|
|
|
CortezBlue
Super Nomad
Posts: 2213
Registered: 11-14-2006
Location: Fenix/San Phelipe
Member Is Offline
|
|
I wonder how soon until we start seeing gas wars in Mexico between Exon, BP and Pemex?
Or will there still be a Pemex station?
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”
- Albert Einstein
Follow Cortez Blue
www.cortezblue.com
We put the FUNK in disFUNKtion |
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
Sheezo, a vacation in Tuscany will have me returning weighing 380 lbs. Italian and Mexican food is some of the best on earth.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
|
Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
|
|
Private investment in MX oil industry (WSJ)
Is this what you're referring to? Process of the privatization of Pemex is already underway, and they rely on these revenues for 40% of the budget per
this report:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230393250...
Excerpt:
The bill, which changes several articles of Mexico's Constitution, now needs to be ratified by a majority of state legislatures, but that is seen as a
formality. Mr. Peña Nieto is expected to sign it into law by early February.
The government may have its work cut out convincing ordinary Mexicans that the moves will benefit them. Polls show many Mexicans are skeptical of
allowing private investment in the oil industry, not because of nationalism but because they are worried the country's oil wealth will be pilfered by
companies and unscrupulous politicians.
"Until now, we Mexicans used oil revenue to pay 40% of our public spending," said Bishop Raul Vera, a leftist priest. But now we'll have to negotiate
that money with foreign oil firms. That's what awaits our children."
Many of the privatizations carried out in the 1990s are widely seen as having had mixed results, with state monopolies becoming de facto private
monopolies. Mexican businessman Carlos Slim became the world's richest man thanks to a stranglehold on Mexico's telephone industry.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
|
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
There is NO REASON ON GOD'S EARTH that gasoline and diesel must cost almost four dollars a gallon. Cutting fuel prices 50% would fuel the biggest
economic boom in the history of the world.
Runny Reagan broke the spine of STAGFLATION by crashing the price of fuel.
We are hitched to the yoke of speculators who do absolutely nothing but sponge the wealth and profit of legions of hard working vassals. Quality of
life and hope is not a gosh darnned slot machine for the maggots.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
|
durrelllrobert
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7393
Registered: 11-22-2007
Location: Punta Banda BC
Member Is Offline
Mood: thriving in Baja
|
|
Thought this was the OT for a moment
I had to scroll all the way up to make sure I was still on Today's posts
Bob Durrell
|
|
|
weebray
Super Nomad
Posts: 1094
Registered: 7-19-2010
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: lleno
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
Runny Reagan broke the spine of STAGFLATION by crashing the price of fuel. |
THIS JUST IN! **Eisenhower still dead!**
|
|
|
Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: optimistic
|
|
I heard on CNBC yesterday from some VERY respected big-time investors that much of the "smart money" is flowing into Mexico as their economic future
is relatively rosy, in their opinion.
You never really know who is telling the truth. I will go with the "smart money" as it has always paid off big-time over-all.
Barry
|
|
|
bacquito
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 3-6-2007
Member Is Offline
Mood: jubilado
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by Barry A.
I heard on CNBC yesterday from some VERY respected big-time investors that much of the "smart money" is flowing into Mexico as their economic future
is relatively rosy, in their opinion.
You never really know who is telling the truth. I will go with the "smart money" as it has always paid off big-time over-all.
Barry |
Yes Barry, I have heard the same reports on the BBC.
bacquito
|
|
|
bacquito
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 3-6-2007
Member Is Offline
Mood: jubilado
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
Whazziz, I'm reading in the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and other supposedly responsible-journalism publications?
The USA is going to become a major oil EXPORTER during 2015? Enough crude oil reserves to last 3,000 years? Australia has enough "Frackable Shale" to
feed China's growth until the 25th century?
What's going to happen to Mexico? Thirty five percent of its income is from crude oil.
Any nerds out there that can shed light on this? Boy if this is factual info Mexico is in for one hell of a rough ride. When Cuba liberalizes its
economy, it will devastate Cancun. Hoo Boy... |
What is going to happen to the Natural Gas plant north of Ensenada (Sempra) and next to the Golf Club?
I think the best thing for Mexico to do is permit outside investors into their oil fields and hope they can extract oil from deep in the Golf of
Mexico. Granted it looks like oil/gas could get mighty cheap (I hope). I remember $.20/gal. gas. On my Dad's Tuna boat diesal was so cheap it was
considered a misc. espense.
The oil embargo of the '70s changed all that. I hope gas/oil gets so cheap that Saudia Arabia and others in the middle east revert back to camels as
their means of transportation.
It was a very stressful time in the '70s!
bacquito
|
|
|
bajarich
Nomad
Posts: 464
Registered: 1-13-2005
Member Is Offline
|
|
There was an actual shortage of gas back in the '70's when they cut refinery production to drive the price up. I have seen no sign of gas lines since
then, indicating that there has been plenty of supply. It's just that the price has been held high by a shortage of competition as the oil companies
have merged. That is how supply and demand really works. They've got it and you have to pay their price because they will not undercut each other.
Viva competition!!! It will work in Mexico as well as the US. Let Pemex enter the US market, the more the merrier!
|
|
|
Jonno_aus
Junior Nomad
Posts: 37
Registered: 11-8-2013
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
|
|
Petrol (gas) and diesel in Australia is around $6.00 a gallon. Could be worse...
Edit : that was in AUS. Once you convert it to USD, it works out only $5.30-$5.40 USD or something like that. Not so bad. 
[Edited on 1-13-2014 by Jonno_aus]
|
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
Yeah I remember all THE SMART MONEY THAT HEADED to Mexico 1992 to 21 December 1994! Go back and read these articles. They are clones of the garbage
which is being printed today. The authors of this rubbish make MONEY on investments, or through advertisements. Solidaridad! Carlos Salinas de Gotari,
the economic miracle whiz bang technocrat of the 90's!
Sorry of some of you have short term memory issues that force you to go back to the first posting and see where you should have been. Mexico is
teetering on a financial precipice and it isn't going to take much for it to slip off. The real issue is antiquated industrial and workforce habits
and customs that make the country DIS-competitive with other regionally viable competitors. Nicaragua, and Panama are set to change their laws
regarding investments. Mexico's sole strength is it's proximity to the USA and investiture of auto manufacturing and machinery production. Few laws
regarding lead smelting and worker safety for Pb (that's lead) for battery manufacturing. When Nicaragua comes up with a workforce and government that
charges half the production price that Mexico does, the stampede is going to be heard all the way to Wall Street. Cuba said it is already poised to
offer gaming, entertainment shows, hotel rooms, and resort fees that will cost the consumer LESS THAN HALF of the fees now found in resort Mexico. 140
miles from Miami. Passenger boats, automobile ferries.
The roar you will here will be Mexico's wealthy sending dollars out of the country. Oops wait a minute, the pundits said that couldn't possibly happen
in 1994. Sorry! My bad!
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
|
Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by Hook
We actually could have been an exporter much earlier except for treaties we have with countries to buy a specified amount of crude. Oh yeah, and oil
companies are also banned from exporting oil. There is talk of changing that.
|
Hook---I was under the impression we were selling Alaskan crude to Japan.
|
|
|
monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
" Cuba said it is already poised to offer gaming, entertainment shows, hotel rooms, and resort fees that will cost the consumer LESS THAN HALF of the
fees now found in resort Mexico. 140 miles from Miami. Passenger boats, automobile ferries."
Cuba's certainly no bargain for tourists now, I kind of doubt that they are going to slash prices there in the future. I wouldn't worry too much about
Nicaragua either, the government and the infrastructure there makes Mexico look like Switzerland, as for Panama, the wages are already too high there
to be competitive with Mexico in manufacturing. I do agree that Mexico doesn't look like the safest place to invest give the crime and security
issues.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
|
|
|
Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: optimistic
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
Yeah I remember all THE SMART MONEY THAT HEADED to Mexico 1992 to 21 December 1994! Go back and read these articles. They are clones of the garbage
which is being printed today. The authors of this rubbish make MONEY on investments, or through advertisements. Solidaridad! Carlos Salinas de Gotari,
the economic miracle whiz bang technocrat of the 90's!
Sorry of some of you have short term memory issues that force you to go back to the first posting and see where you should have been. Mexico is
teetering on a financial precipice and it isn't going to take much for it to slip off. The real issue is antiquated industrial and workforce habits
and customs that make the country DIS-competitive with other regionally viable competitors. Nicaragua, and Panama are set to change their laws
regarding investments. Mexico's sole strength is it's proximity to the USA and investiture of auto manufacturing and machinery production. Few laws
regarding lead smelting and worker safety for Pb (that's lead) for battery manufacturing. When Nicaragua comes up with a workforce and government that
charges half the production price that Mexico does, the stampede is going to be heard all the way to Wall Street. Cuba said it is already poised to
offer gaming, entertainment shows, hotel rooms, and resort fees that will cost the consumer LESS THAN HALF of the fees now found in resort Mexico. 140
miles from Miami. Passenger boats, automobile ferries.
The roar you will here will be Mexico's wealthy sending dollars out of the country. Oops wait a minute, the pundits said that couldn't possibly happen
in 1994. Sorry! My bad! |
Billionair Ken Fisher (Investments) only makes increasing profits when his managed portfolios make increasing profits. Right now he is 67% invested
in the USA in his portfolios----the rest overseas (25 different Countries). I notice that he has NOTHING invested in Latin America at this time which
is rather unusual for him. Zero investments in Mexico!!! So he must not buy what these "Investment talking heads" are saying about Mexico and Latin
America-----at least not yet.
This would support what DavidE is saying above.
Barry
|
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
The successors to Fidel/Raul et al have already hinted they had to face liberalization of the economy or go the way of North Korea. Cuba taxes the
hell out of hotel rooms now, and the import restrictions make everything from toothpaste to toilet paper cruelly expensive.
When US industry moves in without a pandora's box of corruption they can transform vast areas outside cities into manufacturing powerhouses. Daniel
Ortega's faction may see the handwriting on the wall.
It's not like Cummins, Caterpillar, and the auto companies are going to abandon Mexico. They aren't. But economics dictates a country has to export
more than they import. Been to a supermarket or hardware store lately? Besides cement, gravel and rebar what do you see made in Mexico? Nestle profits
go to Switzerland, Bayer, BMW, and Siemens dinero goes to Germany. Ford Coca-Cola? Sony? Samsung? Made in China? How many Mexican made medicines are
imported into the USA? None, or less...
Forensic economics is a specialized field. "Why I cannot be overdrawn! I still have checks left!" is very reminiscent of a country that purloined
investments and is living hand to mouth. The proof is in the pudding, and unless USA oil producers sign illegal contracts to import Mexican oil while
exporting USA fracked product, the handwriting is on the wall. Let's see how 2014 plays out.
Oh yeah, exactly WHERE do you think forklift pallets of US drug banknotes get laundered, hmmmmm? Some street corner huckster mercado negro deep in the
burbs of Mexico? This is a scandal ripe to break.
It would be safer to build a liquid metal cooled nuclear reactor just north of Ensenada than to believe Mexico's "prosperity" is inevitable and
perpetual.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
|
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
