Gulliver
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Nino/Nina and hurricanes
From what I can glean from this article it looks like we are in for more of the same. Yuck.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141204160654.ht...
[Edited on 12-6-2014 by Gulliver]
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Mexitron
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Hmmm, then what fueled this season's fertile hurricane season---there wasn't an El Nino last year. Not to dismiss the research, just that weather is
the haunting ground of chaos theory and this is 'another' pattern that's been found; also, this year's El Nino is pretty weak so that doesn't
(necessarily) correlate with a lot of heat being transferred to next year's hurricane season.
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woody with a view
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over the last 30 years of my observations regarding all things East Pac Hurricanes the correlation between El Nino/Hurricanes has been poor hurricane
generation during El Nino years.
i'm speaking from the aspect of surfing the west coast, not direct impacts of storms in Baja. I like the "chaos theory" answer!
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Howard
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Say what?
Woody, could you please explain what you said in English? 
We don't stop playing because we grow old;
we grow old because we stop playing
George Bernard Shaw
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monoloco
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Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron  | | Hmmm, then what fueled this season's fertile hurricane season---there wasn't an El Nino last year. Not to dismiss the research, just that weather is
the haunting ground of chaos theory and this is 'another' pattern that's been found; also, this year's El Nino is pretty weak so that doesn't
(necessarily) correlate with a lot of heat being transferred to next year's hurricane season. |
Officially, we
weren't in an El Niņo, but locally, sea surface temperatures have been well above normal for the last year.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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BooJumMan
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My favorite go to source for this sorta stuff... if you scroll down a bit you'll see weekly updates on the MJO/ENSO (Driving patterns that determine
El Nino/La Nina).
http://stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml
I think we are generally going back to an El Nino phase for the next few years... Seems like it definitely cycles every 3-5 years.
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bajabuddha
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From my own learning of what El Niņos or La Niņas bring, it's an ''all bets are off'' proposition of 'normal' patterns. You can end up with one area
in devastating floods, another with scortching drought (sound familiar?) and the next go-around, just the opposite in the same places. It alters
global climate, and chaos mathematics reign.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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woody with a view
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during periods of El Nino the winter storms are severe, or above normal whatever normal is. during El Nino summers hurricanes in the Ea. Pac are not
nearly as numerous. go back and look at the years before/after El Nino's at the hurricane record.
MAYBE it was just that the El Nino of '83/84 was so epic that summer sucked in comparison? Dec 10 1983, Solo Salsipuedes!
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woody with a view
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31 years ago this week - DAMN!!!
6 months out of high school! The shark wouldn't bite, the bee wouldn't sting, and Bugs Bunny tip-toed through the brush unnoticed!
[Edited on 12-6-2014 by woody with a view]
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Whale-ista
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Ahh, thanks for the reminders. I remember those early-80s winters- seems we had back to back El Niņo years. Drove the VW van south in January '85 to
see whales, canoe on top- it acted like a sail.
We were battling strong winds on MX 1 that nearly blew us off the road, and wind+hi tides in the lagoons.
Don't recall hurricanes, but do recall wild winter storms that dumped a lot of rain up north, then generated hi tides and big surf, while blowing hard
all the way down the peninsula.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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bajabuddha
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I've been fascinated ever since, and because of the '83-4 event. I was river guiding on the Colorado Plateau during those years, and man, what a
ride! We were seeing and running flows no one else had for 50 years or more; all 'old-tymer-rumors' and stories, and I still have a few flicks of 'em
on my walls to this day. The winter of '82-3 was dry as a popcorn fart until March-ish of '83, then it started to rain, and didn't stop until June...
with snow in the mountains. People were still skiing in the Wasatch Range in July of that year. In El Niņo events since, no runoff... it's all a
roll of the dice... but somebody somewhere is going to get a large influx of abnormal conditions.
Ahhh.... Westwater Canyon (Colo. River, UT/CO border), put-in to take-out in 2 hours, 48 minutes, with a 15 minute have-a-beer-stop-shaking-break.
Cataract Canyon, 78,000 CFS. FLLLUUSSSHHHHH....
 
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Mexitron
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Love that pic Woody, man how stoked you must have been!
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Mexitron
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| Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha | | From my own learning of what El Niņos or La Niņas bring, it's an ''all bets are off'' proposition of 'normal' patterns. You can end up with one area
in devastating floods, another with scortching drought (sound familiar?) and the next go-around, just the opposite in the same places. It alters
global climate, and chaos mathematics reign. |
From what I've read lately there seems to be only a correlation between higher rainfall and El Nino if the El Nino is a strong one like '83---there's
been 6 events like that in the last 100 yrs or so and 5 of them had banner precipitation. So our fairly weak El Nino this year could either way.
Still hoping for a bunch of rain though!
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woody with a view
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Thanks, brother! Where does the time go?
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Mexitron
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Yeah.....went out body womping last week at some nice South Laguna shorebreak though---I could still pull it off gettin' slammed in those sand
barrels!
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Sweetwater
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That stirred my interest....'83-'84 were spectacular ski years with major powder storms every few days. The mountains locally received 2.5 times their
normal snow pack and in the spring of '83 a late warm up resulted in some pretty significant flooding.
This year looked like it might be something when we got an early cold spell with some precip.....but.....nothing but mild now, a bit of snow in the
mountains, certainly not what's normal or needed. I sat outside and read with today's high of 58F and a nice sunny day.
Chaos theory indeed......
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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