ligui
Senior Nomad
Posts: 891
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Location: Fraser co.
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Mood: love Baja !
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Dollar takes a dive.
Peso is kicking some a-- on the US dollar.
Could someone please explain this ?
  
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mtgoat666
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Location: San Diego
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Trump’s policies have devalued the dollar. Dollar has been sinking for past year relative to mex peso.
Peso is strong, as dollar has been weak, and interest rates in mex are relatively better than in USA, so peso is favored for short-term deposits
(getting like 7 percent).
Usa stock market gains are partly an illusion, since dollar has lost value relative to other currencies.
In past year dollar down 15 percent relative to euro, and dollar down 16 percent relative to peso. So 16 percent s&p500 gain in Past year is
nothing if net zero if you were planning to spend your usa investment gains in mexico or europe
Btw, trump has said he would like to see even lower dollar, to boost usa exports, so if are going to need pesos in 2026, buy them now before the
dollar tanks even more!
Trump keeps pushing to take over the fed, and cut fed rates. This would cause dollar to drop another 5 to 10 percent.
[Edited on 1-28-2026 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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Tioloco
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Just saw a picture I took in 2019 in front of a store in Sonora with
17 to 1 exchange rate posted on the door. Was 10 to 1 about 25 years ago. Currencies fluctuate- fact of life.
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David K
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Today:
How much is $1 US in pesos?
17.14 MXN
USD to MXN exchange rates today
USD MXN
1 USD 17.14 MXN
5 USD 85.72 MXN
10 USD 171.44 MXN
20 USD 342.88 MXN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This isn't any big change. It has been between 16 and 20 for the past 10 years. In 2004, it was 11 pesos per dollar!
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AKgringo
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It is a world wide thing!
Going back in time a couple of decades, there is only so much blame, or credit for the status of the US dollar that you could put on Trump, Biden,
Trump, or Obama!
I remember in 2016 I was in Mulege and needed a few more pesos. The Dollar was sliding then, and I could not draw pesos with my debit card at any
ATM, and the local bank would not exchange the greenbacks I had in reserve either!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Alan
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For anyone that bought property years ago and were considering selling, this could prove to be good news. I bought way back when the peso was 10:1. If
I were to sell today, even for the exact same dollar amount I paid, in the eyes of the Mexican government I will have nearly doubled my investment so
I would have to pay a significant capital gains tax. As the dollar falls, we reduce our capital gains taxes 
In Memory of E-57
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JDCanuck
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Debt/net worth up, value down. Value goes up again when net worth growth exceeds debt growth. Mexico has relatively low debt compared to their recent
growth rates. Same can be said for most European countries, especially Switzerland, Germany and Norway, so they can increase debt at very low rates,
while others are forced to pay higher rates on their debt.
Most of us are familiar with this when we go to the bank to borrow money on a new mortgage and they immediately look at your net worth and existing
debt as they set your rates.
Very simply, as the US expands their debt faster than they increase the economy, they will be forced to pay higher and higher rates on long term
treasuries to get global lenders to fund the increased risk of default. Forcing the Feds to drop the short term rates will have little effect on long
term rates and the yield curve will continue to steepen while those who have large savings in bonds and CDs will earn less and less interest relative
to inflation and pushing investors to seek higher gains in highly priced and higher risk gold and equities or Swiss bonds for safety at extremely low
yields.
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/government-bond-yie...
[Edited on 1-29-2026 by JDCanuck]
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LancairDriver
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Quote: Originally posted by ligui  | Peso is kicking some a-- on the US dollar.
Could someone please explain this ?
Gold 1-28-26. $5563.49/oz
Silver. 119.04/oz |
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JDCanuck
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Global foreign reserves have been slowly selling US Gov't Treasuries and replacing with Gold for a long time now. Expectations are this will continue
to drop the relative value of the USD (DXY) for another 5% decline as MTGoat mentioned earlier.
Underlying reason is the rapidly growing debt levels and somewhat slower economic growth that leads to higher debt/GDP levels and increasing risk of
default.
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AKgringo
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Silver has been a wild ride lately
Silver has been as high as $121.76, and low as $106.80 just today!
A fifteen-dollar swing (so far) is not business as usual.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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cupcake
Senior Nomad
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As far as I am aware, all the countries that have pegged their currency to the US dollar have kept that in place.
Most countries that have floating currency exchange will manipulate their currency to achieve different goals, often to achieve desired import and
export outcomes.
All currencies today are fiduciary, meaning they are only backed by the faith and credit of their issuing country. The US government states publicly
that they have an "inflation" target of 2% a year. What this really means is that they intend to devalue their own currency by 2% every year. Like
interest rates, this is compounded annually. To achieve favorable import and export situations, other countries will, over a long period of time, need
to do the same, or peg their currency to the US dollar (or Euro, or Renminbi, etc.).
So, what this means, and what I have seen in my life, is that the US dollar 'of today' will loose most of its value over a long period of time, as
weighed against commodities, i.e. gold and silver and real estate, etc., but when compared to other 'floating' fiduciary currencies, it will
"fluctuate".
From the internet:
"The U.S. dollar remains globally dominant and generally stable due to deep markets and lack of alternatives, but it faces challenges like rising U.S.
debt, widening deficits, and policy uncertainty, leading to gradual loss of reserve share and recent volatility as seen in 2025's significant drop and
shifting "flight to safety" status. While expected to weaken modestly due to potential Fed rate cuts and stronger global growth in 2026, its
fundamental stability and liquidity are still strong, though long-term concerns about fiscal sustainability and global shifts persist."
[Edited on 1-29-2026 by cupcake]
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surabi
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8821
Registered: 5-6-2016
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | Today:
How much is $1 US in pesos?
17.14 MXN
USD to MXN exchange rates today
USD MXN
1 USD 17.14 MXN
5 USD 85.72 MXN
10 USD 171.44 MXN
20 USD 342.88 MXN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Good thing you posted multiples of $1, just in case there are math challenged people here who can't multiply by 5 or 10 or 20. 
[Edited on 1-29-2026 by surabi]
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JDCanuck
Super Nomad
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Cupcake: For quite a while now, there has been a comparative measure of the USD value against a basket of currencies called the DXY. It's this that
has shown a decline in USD value of about 11% compared to the other major global currencies in the past year, with an expected 5% further decline in
the near future.
Here it is again:
https://www.investing.com/indices/usdollar
A weakening USD is good for people carrying a lot of debt or exporters, and bad for savers or importers, while a rising USD like we had during the
2020-2024 years was good for savers and importers but bad for exporters. In both cases, it affects the trade balance and real GDP growth of a
country's economy.
Countries with a lot of debt will purposely weaken the value of their currency to offset the debt they hold and make it a bit more manageable and at
the same time boost their exports to countries with a higher valued currency.
[Edited on 1-29-2026 by JDCanuck]
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cupcake
Senior Nomad
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Hi JD,
"Countries with a lot of debt will purposely weaken the value of their currency to offset the debt they hold and make it a bit more manageable and at
the same time boost their exports to countries with a higher valued currency."
I am in total agreement with what you wrote. Some have called it 'inflating your way out of it'.
Trump wants the dollar even weaker than it is now. I don't, so I have been happy to see Jerome Powell standing his ground on interest rates.
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JDCanuck
Super Nomad
Posts: 2427
Registered: 2-22-2020
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We have ETFs for US indexes here that are either CAD hedged or unhedged, so it's yet another way to enhance returns if you get on the right side.
I agree that it appears Trump wants the USD to decline for a while. The unwanted part is it seems to be driving the long term end yields up at the
same time it drives the short term down. So people looking for long term mortgage relief seem to be losing out, while conservative savers are taking a
beating at the same time.
It will benefit the trade balance tho, so maybe that's all it will produce.
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 65453
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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| Quote: Originally posted by surabi | | Quote: Originally posted by David K | Today:
How much is $1 US in pesos?
17.14 MXN
USD to MXN exchange rates today
USD MXN
1 USD 17.14 MXN
5 USD 85.72 MXN
10 USD 171.44 MXN
20 USD 342.88 MXN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Good thing you posted multiples of $1, just in case there are math challenged people here who can't multiply by 5 or 10 or 20.
[Edited on 1-29-2026 by surabi] |
You just like to fight, don't you? I copy and pasted that from the money exchange website, I did not do the multiplications. As stupid as some posts
are here, being math challenged isn't the only thing.
Here is today's exchange rate (but without the multipliers so the sensitive Nomads aren't offended)...
1 United States Dollar equals
17.36 Mexican Peso
Jan 30, 4:12 PM UTC ·
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surabi
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8821
Registered: 5-6-2016
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Fight? Too bad you can't take a joke.
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6316
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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Speaking of taking a dive....
The wild ride silver has been taking just got wilder. I just checked today's activity, and silver is down over 26%!
To me, it does not appear to be due to Dollar issues, but what do I know?
[Edited on 1-30-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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cupcake
Senior Nomad
Posts: 735
Registered: 4-23-2024
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: Originally posted by cupcake |
So, what this means, and what I have seen in my life, is that the US dollar 'of today' will loose most of its value over a long period of time, as
weighed against commodities, i.e. gold and silver and real estate, etc., but when compared to other 'floating' fiduciary currencies, it will
"fluctuate".
|
I didn't mean to be 'all doom and gloom'. Most people don't keep their money in a tin can buried in the back yard. Most people put their dollars in
something that at least keeps up with "inflation". Often even a bank CD will do this. I am quite happy to have US dollars in the bank !
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cupcake
Senior Nomad
Posts: 735
Registered: 4-23-2024
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| Quote: Originally posted by JDCanuck | Cupcake: For quite a while now, there has been a comparative measure of the USD value against a basket of currencies called the DXY. It's this that
has shown a decline in USD value of about 11% compared to the other major global currencies in the past year, with an expected 5% further decline in
the near future.
|
U.S. Dollar Index (2006-2026)
https://www.macrotrends.net/1329/us-dollar-index-historical-...
That 11% decline is from a 19 year high. The chart on the above linked website puts it in perspective.
"The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY or USDX) measures the USD value against a basket of six major foreign currencies: Euro (EUR, 57.6% weight), Japanese Yen
(JPY, 13.6%), Pound Sterling (GBP, 11.9%), Canadian Dollar (CAD, 9.1%), Swedish Krona (SEK, 4.2%), and Swiss Franc (CHF, 3.6%). Created in 1973 and
maintained by ICE, it provides a benchmark for the dollar's global strength. "
My position of being grateful to Jerome Powell for holding interest rates steady is simply due to self-interest. I can understand where President
Trump is coming from.
[Edited on 1-30-2026 by cupcake]
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