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Osprey
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 08:06 AM


Wow! What happened? I wrote this little piece to see what potential future retirees would say to all the future growth. Not one response about the millions more folks who might get here before you do. Did you not read the whole essay? Don't believe my figures? Think all that growth is impossible? Most of the responses were from people counting days, not decades so they don't care about population booms where they are headed but what do the younger Bajaphiles have planned? What are your thoughts, hopes, dreams?
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 08:24 AM


Osprey:
It has been my experience in Life, Especially the past 30 years that a large number of People do not use their Ability to think about the Future, only concerned about the "Instant Gratifiction" in todays' Culture.

There is nothing that we as a Generation can do about the Population.
There is nothing we can do about the movement to Loreto Bay Villages. The Herds of Sheep will still go!

There are some of us who will look and Act on our Future Dreams and make lots of Money and go and do as we Wish. Such as myself who lived in Loreto so long, started seeing what was coming and escaped to another Adventure.

Remember Sheep, Sheep Dogs and Wolves.

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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 08:29 AM


Sorry Osprey-- You are right. In 1976 I moved to Nevada and there were less than 700,000 in the whole state. only 2 of the 17 counties had more than 100,000 in population. Now there are more than 2 million in Clark Co and NV has been for most of the last 20 years, the fastest growing state in the country. Las Vegas traffic is a nightmare ( just like phoenix) but anyone who believes that's what's in store for BAja -- I just can't see it. Every time I tell someone I'm going to BAja to live- I get the whole- you can't be serious, they'll take your property away, it's dangerous, what if you get sick or injured, plus the property costs continue to rise- which will turn many away who can't work there and make good money. Plus, there is no tax base to support the infrastructure for new towns , roads, public services and most Americans aren't up for the daily adventure of living in Mexico where the rules are transitory, Manana doesn't mean tomorrow- it means not now. I would guess your financial advisor's projections are based on US data and not Baja, the lack of water, and no way to get to the numbers he proposed without changing the whole culture of the region.

So that's my 2 cents on the future- it will change in Baja but not so that there are hundreds of thousands in Loreto or Mulege.




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Paulina
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 08:40 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Osprey
Wow! What happened? I wrote this little piece to see what potential future retirees would say to all the future growth. Not one response about the millions more folks who might get here before you do. Did you not read the whole essay? Don't believe my figures? Think all that growth is impossible? Most of the responses were from people counting days, not decades so they don't care about population booms where they are headed but what do the younger Bajaphiles have planned? What are your thoughts, hopes, dreams?


Ok, here's my quickie reply. Future growth is happening, and has been happening all along. Every trip down there's more and more where there was nothing before.

Will folks get there before I do? No matter where I go, there's always someone who was there before me. I might be that person who is ruining it for the old timer who found the place first, then it will happen to me, kind of like a vicious cycle.

It's not just the people who get there before me that influence the future growth, but the local youth that are growing up with values different from their forefathers. They are the ones who have our retirement in their hands. They will have the ability to change what we've become to love.

The dollar sign is more important than the hand shake we shared with their grandfather over a bottle of tequila as we sat on a vacant lot dreaming of the future.

I'm one of those counting the days. 2195 days to go sounds much better than the amount of years that are hiding within that number. But then again we count the days to every school holiday when we can head 'home' to baja.

I care about the 'gringo' population boom. I guess I'm part of the problem by introducing my children to Baja. My son is in college and so far, (knock on the computer desk) he hasn't expressed a desire to take his buddies down to the house. He's on to other things, but my daughter can't wait to get back to baja. She's the one whos baja future I worry about. What is it going to be like for her in decades? Her baja life now is going to be her "good old days" in baja like mine were in the 60s. If I'm lucky enough to hold on to what I've got, I've left everything I have in baja to both of my kids, but what will it be like for them?

So, I guess that my baja hopes and dreams are to make the best of every trip I can NOW and not wait those 2195 days to really start to live. I was lucky to have lived there for a short 2 years, and miss it greatly, but I had it. I had it and if I wake up tomorrow and a few hundred more tomorrows I hope to have it full time again.

I'm sure theres more that will pop into my head as I'll be thinking of this all day now!

Saludos!
Paulina<*)))><




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Don Alley
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 08:48 AM


It's not just retirement.
We baby boomers have moved across the real estate landscape like locusts, devouring everything in sight, then moving on to things out of sight. Only, unlike locusts who leave nothing, we leave greatly inflated prices.

Real estate speculation has become the big driving force in our economy. Sales and refinancing of homes is the big cash cow that provides the cash for cars, for boats, for college, for retirement.

Your story reminds me of the newspaper report on the Trump condos in Baja, where one investor said none of the buyers would still own in five years. They were all speculators, middlemen whose conribution to the property was to inflate the price.

Maybe it's all a huge "bubble" that will burst when a new generation does not have the cash or the numbers to sustain the high prices. Otherwise, I wonder how the kids now leaving school will find the cash to own a home, much less a retirement home.
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 09:15 AM


I don't really know how to comment on the population growth that is going to happen in our beloved Baja, look how it has changed in just the last 25 years when I first visited. As more and more people are introduced to this great land they too will want to try to obtain a little slice of paradise.

On retirement in general I am a big fan of this website www.retireearlyhomepage.com and I also follow the forums for information about early retirement and financial matters www.early-retirement.org/forums/index.php
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 09:29 AM


Dune155551:

Not sure what time-frame of his life Skeet was talking about when he said he lived on $800 a month, but as far as I'm concerned $800-1,000 a month is still a VERY DOABLE figure. I realize there are a LOT of variables & personal requirements, but it is possible to live comfortably & eat well; pay insurance, utilities, vehicle costs, medications, liquid beverages, vet bills, etc.....once you get the initial cost of a residence out of the way! My thoughts haven't changed on renting during my life....it's money down the tube & into someone ELSE'S pocket! So once you figure out where you want to be, buy or build & let your investment grow over time. My experiences are based on having my now 88-year-old mother down here with me for the first couple of years, as well as on my own for the last 5 years. Without the cost of her meds & Uhhhhhhhh....I'll say liquid libations....my life style actually increased! ;D I'm not talking a pallet-board room with a dirt floor here either! I'm talking new construction, done smartly, being your own contractor, networking & negotiating for the best materials & labor costs.

The only way that I could afford to retire at age 52 was to move to Mexico! If I'd have stayed in the states, I'd have had to continue working until at least age 62!

One piece of information that I realize not everyone can financially afford to act on...there have been major studies done that prove; for the majority; the older you are when you retire, the shorter your life expectancy. In a nutshell, your body is trained & geared to the stresses of working & the older you are when you retire, the more traumatic your bodies reaction! I worked in a company whose employee headcount equaled the population of La Paz (roughly 180-90,000) and I personally knew three people who retired at or after age 65 & who were dead within a week....one retired Thursday & died of a massive heart attack on Saturday. So the moral of the story is retire young, live long & prosper! :bounce:

I think a lot of people don't take into account the change in lifestyle & make assumptions on cost of living based on their current lifestyle & location expenditures. WRONG!!! Toss out the budget items for work clothes & dry cleaning, as someone else mentioned, gas for commute time; unless of course, you plan on swapping that commute gas allocation for boat gas! Downsize thoughts of housing requirements....you'll be moving to a predominantly OUTDOOR life style. The more you have to clean & maintain, the less time you have to explore your awesome surroundings!! :bounce: And don't look at this as vacation, it's the next day of your life, and it starts in a different climate, culture & at an entirely different pace!!! It can be whatever you want to make it! :bounce: And you can probably DO it a LOT SOONER than you THINK!! :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 09:46 AM


Longlegsinlapaz, Paulina:
You two said it all !!! Your writing should make everyone think and not just give a knee jerk reaction to what if situations. Agree growth can't be stopped and we're the best adapters on earth. Baja really does give a wonderful lifestyle. Thankfully it's not for everyone. :biggrin: looking for land :biggrin:
Thanks.




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Cypress
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 10:19 AM


Paulina and Longlegs, That's what I'm thinking.:spingrin:
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David K
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 01:36 PM
Mike Humfreville on reitrement, 2004...


Posted on Nomad a couple years ago... a great thread follows: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=4821&page...



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Hook
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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 03:18 PM


Longlegs, I couldn't agree with you more except for one point. While renting is, in effect, money down the tubes, renting gives you a very great degree of freedom that also has a value for more than one reason.

First, I read recently that an average time period for a house to sell in Mexico is around two years. Except for exceptionally low priced properties, this seems to jive with what I have noticed on real estate websites from Baja and the mainland. That can be quite limiting to "movin' on" if you are stuck with a house and the neighborhood goes to hell (or even limbo), for whatever reason. It gives you the freedom to move easily away from what Osprey is warning us all about.

Second, it's been my experience that the cost ratio of renting versus owning is very favorable in many areas of Latin America. In other words, rentals are much better bargains that houses for sale. Mexican owners who bought houses/apts for next to nothing (relative to today's pricing) are willing to let houses rent for less than a potential mortgage/trust/insurance/taxes, etc. would run you, especially for a moderately large house.

Of course you could pay cash for a house down here, but that can be quite a bit of cash that's tied up until you sell. As I've mentioned before in discussions like this, we will likely convert all our equity in our stateside house into interest bearing instruments and apply that towards rents in places around the globe. It will end up being many times over a positive cash flow with respect to rent; the money is safe, the investment is rather liquid and requires no maintenance, nor does it have any real liabilities that a structure does. Besides, except in isolated areas, I think we have seen the last of double digit real estate appreciation for awhile. Money to lend is getting tighter, worldwide; the GMAC financing notwithstanding. It would not surprise me at all to see a correction in some areas around the Capes (San Lucas, San Jose and the East Cape).

Of course this is new territory, this renting here and there and then moving on. We have owned for the last 20 years or so, over ten in the same spot. But we like the idea of the freedom. It also gives us the opportunity to visit friends and relatives around the country for extended periods. We think we will like a nomadic lifestyle, since we will be retiring young enough to enjoy it.

We can follow the fish, too.

If we buy, it will likely be in a much more northern clime that is nice during the warm Mexican summers. Or maybe the Abreojos/Asuncion areas? Hey,we're from California; we can stand a little ground shaking!

It's looking like June of '07 for me. The divestiture of unnecessary possessions has started.




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[*] posted on 1-26-2007 at 04:24 PM
dune155551


agree with previous posters regarding 800-1000 dollar per month range once housing is out of the way. btw property taxes annually are hysterically reasonable. we have a 4 bdrm 3 ba house on two lots with lovely ocean view 2 1/2 blocks from beach in a quiet residential fraccionamiento in ensenada and our "predial" (property tax rate) is 1188 pesos (110 dollars) annually:lol:

:smug:also, with concrete block construction and our downsizing to move here, we have decided not to carry insurance except on our autos.:smug:

as far as rent vs purchase, a weird thing is happening in our neighborhood. rents are skyrocketing. a two bedrm 1 bath bungalow across the street is listed for 650 dollars a month:o:o:o

and price of gas continues to be lower than in california:tumble: and, in any case, we drive MUCH less than previously; my husband's commute from bedroom to home office is about three feet. can't beat the traffic either:spingrin:

and i walk to supermarket around the corner for groceries a few days each week. good exercise and also saves gas:D

we love it here and since moving almost three years ago have been absolutely delighted by our good fortune (and successful planning).

if you have any questions feel free to u2u me. i love talking about the life here:bounce:




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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 07:43 AM


["we have a 4 bdrm 3 ba house on two lots with lovely ocean view 2 1/2 blocks from beach in a quiet residential fraccionamiento in ensenada and our "predial" (property tax rate) is 1188 pesos (110 dollars) annually"]

That's why the infrastructure of Mexican cities is so poor.
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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 07:58 AM


Hook. Thinking somewhat along the same lines.:yes: Renting, if completely sold on an area, buying or building, if not, move to the next adventure.:bounce:
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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 09:13 AM


Hook:

As in most aspects of life, different people have different thoughts & feelings on their residence & whether to own or rent.....ergo the phrase "Different strokes for different folks." ;D

I'm a pretty decisive person & I knew La Paz "felt right" for me on my first visit; which was simply a 2-week vacation! Employment circumstances changed my first day back at work after that vacation when my job of 18 years was outsourced! I came back to La Paz within 6 months, bought property & I was relocated & living here full time within a year of buying my first property. My decision on La Paz was researched all to hell & I've never regretted my choice or decision. At the risk of being banned from BajaNomad, I'm a well-anchored person as opposed to being a nomad! I prefer to plant roots rather than wander. I'm also on a limited income & chose to be on the "pay as I go plan" rather than plastic or mortgage.

You're right about the real estate market here....there's no rhyme nor reason to it! Some of the places that were on the market in 1998 when I first started looking for property are STILL on the market!!! I've been exceptionally lucky! I built my first casa & a change in my personal circumstances led me to put it on the market after 3 years. It sold in exactly one year, which surprised me based on the local market, but it was a one of a kind beach-front place, well-designed & well-constructed. I built a second time, also beach-front & when I decided that 7 years of beach-front living was enough for me, I listed it on the internet, giving myself 6 months to find a buyer before I'd be willing to list it with a realtor (I wanted to see if I could keep the typical 10% commission in MY pocket!); I accepted an offer on that place within 4 months!!!!!!:spingrin::tumble::spingrin::tumble::spingrin:

I've done what's right for ME! I've made more good choices than bad. Each of my casas were built with the idea that I'd live there the rest of my days and when I decided to sell, I've been exceptionally lucky, but then I'd built exceptionally smart & well-designed & constructed places. Both sold at acceptable profit & both buyers remain ecstatic with their places.:bounce::bounce: True, some people in the area who've had their places on the market for years with no offers have expressed their dismay at my "luck" through various comments!:lol::lol: But HEY! It's worked for me!:bounce:

I guess the point being that we all make our personal choices for our own educated or uneducated reasons & we all have to be willing to accept or deal with the outcome. Knowing yourself well enough to make smart choices going in really improves the odds in your favor on the outcome. And I fully acknowledge what's right for me isn't right for everyone! If we feared the potential outcome or were afraid of the unknown, few of us would be here or have made Baja a retirement destination!

Osprey, I realize this thread deviated from your original intent, but it's a good thread, nonetheless! Growth & change are like taxes & death....inevitable!! But each of us can only do our best to go with the flow of the country & culture we migrated to....as opposed to trying to change it to our image of what's best for the either Mexicanos or future generations of retirees. Each of us will have some impact on the future; by our presence alone; what that impact will be in the long term will depend on many factors of our actions....as with anywhere in the world. I try to be a good Baja citizen & remember I'm a guest in this country! ;)
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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 10:07 AM


Longlegs,

The building of your own place is defintely the exception in purchasing real estate. We will be exploring this option as we rent about. It gives you the luxury to accept much less than the prevailing market value when you decide to sell. You have made good choices, IMO, for what that's worth.

Really, my original reply was just to point out that there ARE some tangible and intangible benefits to renting.

This is a good thread. I love hearing the details from others who have retired before the traditional ages that government and corporate America would have us believe is "right".

Apologies to Osprey, if he feels this thread has taken a turn for the worse.......




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Osprey
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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 10:16 AM


Not at all. More is better -- I was just surprised that no one even commented on what seems an outrageous population explosion (my own personal fictional future Baja) in places Bajaphiles might have already set their sights on.
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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 10:40 AM


Sylens, sent you a u2u regarding Baja. brgds.



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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 11:02 AM


This is a great thread. It makes you think and reexamine your position and what possiblities lie outside of the comfort zone. Longlegs said it all. Make the decisions and moving forward makes our lives exciting, to say the least.
25 yrs of corporate life drains the living out of you and 2 yrs ago I decided to calculate what would happen if I resigned and retired from the working world. Yeah, a limited income definitely impacts what you do - yet I've found my mental state is more relaxed and I've grown to see the value and importance of the family (something I didn't pay attention to before). Results - divorce and 1 daughter which I call regularly in order to build a relationship again. But - we've talked more now than in the 32 yrs she's been on this earth. Life is now becoming fun again and I must say this forum is fantastic to read and add comments to. Anyhow - will be visiting Baja soon and enjoying some good mariscos.

Traveling around the country has been an eye opener because the places where I camped in years past with the family are either gone or have grown to hugh proportions, leaving me to question why I visited the places in the first place. Yet my daughter finds these places fantastic because she sees what she wants to see and do. Same as we did in the past. The next generation (now generation) doesn't necessarily see the population growth because their part of it. Only we see the tremendos differences because we have something to compare it to. The population will grow in Baja just as it does everywhere else. Just maybe not so fast as some statistions may think. So the moral of the story is ENJOY ALL YOU CAN because once you don't enjoy it anymore - what's worth living for then?

Okay - so I've bored everyone - sorry. I really enjoy being part of this forum. tks.




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[*] posted on 1-27-2007 at 02:22 PM


My husband, 17 years my senior, retired September 2003. I got tired of getting up in the morning to go to work and hearing him say, "Honey, please keep it down...I'm trying to sleep." So, January 2004, after 30 1/2 years, I retired, too! Now, on many mornings, we look at each other and say, "Let's call in sick today!" He retired late, I retired early.....neither of us has any regrets! Now we're just waiting for our Rosarito Beach condo to be completed next year so we can spend time enjoying it.....though from the sound of some of the threads, Rosarito is certainly not a place many want to go! Our place is north of town, right on the beach, and we are eagerly awaiting its completion...guess we just better learn how to read the street signs......:tumble:
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