Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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2007 Hurricanes for Baja
Here's all the hurricanes in the world since 1950. Looks pretty predictable looking backwards instead of forwards. Anybody got any good Baja track
maps?
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Osprey
Ultra Nomad
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Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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Maybe I'm being a tad too obtuse. I was hoping for a track map for June 2007 to Nov. 2007 for the area around southern Baja. Haven't yet fixed my
roof from the last storm damage.
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villadelfin
Nomad
Posts: 273
Registered: 4-8-2006
Location: La Paz
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Mood: toasted and buttered
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| Quote: |
March 30, 2007
Miami, FL
National Hurricane Center
For immediate release
The Eastern and Pacific basin are where the major changes are expected to occur. Reynolds numbers are well above seasonal norms northwest of Hawaii
now and the resulting change in the Japan current finds SSTs in the 28’C range across the west coast as far north as Pt. Reyes. This combined with the
contra-current provides a breeding ground just off the Baja, Mexico coast capable of generating as many as three major hurricanes that we feel will
affect areas between San Diego and San Francisco for the first time in fifty years. This event combined with the record low rainfall across the
southwest this year will set the stage for a potentially cataclysmic flash flood event. Local officials and regional watershed managers have been
informed of this forecast. Several have already requested FEMA funds to try and deal with the poor condition of the flood control infrastructure. The
funds may be too little too late as the first storms could affect the southwest in May when the Pacific basin season begins.
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http://www.sailinganarchy.com/fringe/2007/weather_2007hurric...
Disclaimer
I cannot corroborate this info anywhere--the announcement was made on April Fools day
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
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Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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pray for surf .
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Dave
Elite Nomad
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Registered: 11-5-2002
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| Quote: | Originally posted by villadelfin
I cannot corroborate this info anywhere--the announcement was made on April Fools day |
It's credible. Dr. Gray is the go-to guy when it comes to hurricane prediction. Yeah, he got it wrong last year but he's usually
right. Buckle up...could be a bumpy flight. 
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BajaBruno
Super Nomad
Posts: 1035
Registered: 9-6-2006
Location: Back in CA
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This alleged report from the NHC a joke. Note the paragraph:
"This storm has been put on special order by the larger boats in the Trans Pac race and the storm while expensive, should catch the slower boats
prior to their arrival in Honolulu during the race. This will allow those with deep pockets a much greater chance of winning the handicap overall. If
you are still reading this please check your calendar. There are just 45 days left until the Pacific Hurricane season, which of course makes today,
April fools."
[Same citation as villadelfin's post, which is NOT The National Hurricane Center.]
Christopher Bruno, Elk Grove, CA.
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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How about the statement "...SSTs in the 28’C range across the west coast as far north as Pt. Reyes....
28* C is equal to 82* F ......
Along the west coast??? ....at Pt. Reyes?? ..... 
A check of current sst shows it's closer to 50* F (10* C)....just like it always is.
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Dave
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6005
Registered: 11-5-2002
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I guess I gots fooled. 
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Cameron
Nomad
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Registered: 10-12-2004
Location: Todos Santos / Seattle WA
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Mood: Thirsty!
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Historical Hurricane Tracks
| Quote: | Originally posted by Osprey
Here's all the hurricanes in the world since 1950. Looks pretty predictable looking backwards instead of forwards. Anybody got any good Baja track
maps? |
For a map/plot showing past Hurricanes in Baja (or other locales), try Weather Underground at:
www.wunderground.com
There's a "Tropical/Hurricane" pulldown menu at the top of the home page. Once you get that section up, you'll need to do a little looking around, but
I know they have/had a section showing all of the past Hurricanes' tracks somewhere. Last time I pulled it up, it showed Baja w/the Hurricane tracks
superimposed, and it looked just like I-5 at rush hour! The storms would come up from the south, then follow the peninsula south to north like it was
some kind of magnet. Pretty cool to see...
Suerte! Cameron
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
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They predicted that there'd be X number of storms last year. "X" number of storms
didn't happen. Oh well! Give me those dice and let's roll 'em. We've deserve better than that. They're playing games and we're paying the tab.
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bajajazz
Nomad
Posts: 386
Registered: 12-18-2006
Location: La Paz, BCS, Mexico
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Conflicting predictions of hurricane conditions in the Eastern Pacific abound. The American expert says the Pacific will be colder than usual due to
the La Nina effect, which should augur for fewer hurricanes. The Mexican expert on the other hand, says we're in an El Nino period and can expect a
horrendous hurricane season, which leaves me scratching my head.
What I do know for an indisputable fact is that when we made our decision to build our retirement home in 1999, La Paz had had only one hurricane in
the previous 23 years, the monster hurricane of 1976 being the antecedent occurrence. By the end of 2006 however, La Paz had experienced five
hurricanes in the past 10 years, an average of one hurricane every two years.
I cannot believe this can be written off to mere coincidence. Obviously, something fundamental has changed and that something is most likely global
warming, and whether it's man-caused or not is rather academic, as it's the consequences we have to confront and deal with as best we can.
Still, why the discrepancy between the predictions for 2007? Which is it, El Nino or La Nina? More (and more dangerous) hurricanes than normal, or
fewer (and milder) weather events?
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15940
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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| Quote: |
Still, why the discrepancy between the predictions for 2007? Which is it, El Nino or La Nina? More (and more dangerous) hurricanes than normal, or
fewer (and milder) weather events?
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like everything in life, it's 50/50. it will or it won't!!!
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