rob
Senior Nomad
Posts: 509
Registered: 10-19-2004
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
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2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Forecast
Every year about this time I am irritated by the timely issuance of the Atlantic hurricane forecast, and lack of same for the Eastern Pacific.
I have been scanning Google but the hits are zero (except for Accuweather, which is so slow in loading that the season will be over by the time it
does - and I have yet to see what the page says).
Are we not equal? Do we not bleed? Any savants out there with suggestions of where to look?
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
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Do you really believe that someone can predict the number and intensity.  
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Roberto
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| Quote: | Originally posted by comitan
Do you really believe that someone can predict the number and intensity. |
Sure. Al Gore has for the next few years. Haven't you been paying attention?
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bonanza bucko
Senior Nomad
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Registered: 8-31-2003
Location: San Diego
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Forecasting Hurricanes
I'm a pilot and I use the WX forecast every day. It is only reliable about 8-12 hours in advance....sometimes not even that good. After that it is
a lot of what ifs and guesses. The people making the forecasts do the best they can but, so far, we don't have a computer fast enough to even model
the WX in real time.
If I take off on a long trip I want to see not only the forecasts but the wing, pressure, temperature and humidity (dewpoint) numbers that produced
them....I make my own forecast.
If you pay attention you can do a better job of forecasting your own weather locally than the National Weather Service or any of the private providers
can because they focus on wide area forecasts and can't pay attention to local stuff. A little reading and watching of the forecasts locally will
make you as good or better than the dudes who get paid to read the WX on TV.
For sure the "Global Warming" drum thumpers do not have even the slightest idea about what is gonna happen next. They are the people who are telling
us that man is now causing the kind of global warming that melted the glaciers that dug the Great Lakes......or the global warming, and subsequent
cooling, that has happened naturally about a million times in the past. Even if the earth is now warming.....and there is NO evidence of
that....there is even less evidence that man is powerful enough to have caused it. The only people who fall for that stuff are politicians looking
for an issue to scare people, fraidycats or "scientists" looking for a gummint grant.
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Osprey
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Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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Bucko, thanks for turning up the numbers on common sense pilots >>> there's you and Cap and some other good guys who use English instead of
pilotspeak like Capt. Overweight.
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fulano
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| Quote: | If I take off on a long trip I want to see not only the forecasts but the wing, pressure, temperature and humidity (dewpoint) numbers that
produced them....I make my own forecast.
If you pay attention you can do a better job of forecasting your own weather locally than the National Weather Service or any of the private providers
can because they focus on wide area forecasts and can't pay attention to local stuff. |
1. How do you get around detrmining if you need to file an IFR flight plan with an alternate using your own forecast weather?
2. Why do you have to forecast "your own weather locally" when you can just look out the window? ..and how useful is a local forecast when you "take
off on a long trip"?
3. Tell us how you determine the location, direction and speed of a squall line from looking at "wing[d], pressure, temperature and humidity
(dewpoint) numbers."
4. I wasn't aware hurricanes were local weather phenomena.
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stanburn
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Location: Santiago, Colima, MX
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Go to this website: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/ then click on ciclones on the top menu bar. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) feels it will be a normal year.
Stan
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Cypress
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They can't even tell for sure where a hurricane's gonna hit even when it's underway. And the forecasters are predicting 'em months in advance.
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rob
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Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
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¡Gracias Stanburn! You have given me los goodes.
True (Cypress, Comitan), the seasonal prognostico for hurricanes may be a long shot (especially, it seems in the Eastern Pacific) - but I am wondering
whether to buy a new generator, and some hint of the horror ahead is always useful when parting with money.
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rob
Senior Nomad
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Registered: 10-19-2004
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
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CONAGUA (CNA) Prognostico 2008 for Eastern Pacific
Conagua says that based on similar past years, we can expect 15 tropical systems (ciclones, with a standard deviation of 2), 7 of which could reach
tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes.
For those who (wisely) mistrust my spanish, original text below.
Thanks to all.
"Realizando el promedio de las temporadas análogas se observa que la actividad de la temporada 2008,
en el Pacífico Nororiental, será cerca de la situación normal de 1970 a 2007, con una “estimación
promedio de 15 ciclones con nombre con una desviación estándar de 2”. De los 15 sistemas
tropicales, 7 podrían alcanzar la intensidad de tormenta tropical, 5 huracanes moderados y 3 huracanes
intensos"
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tehag
Super Nomad
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Registered: 1-8-2005
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East Pac
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Not very far out in time with predictions but very good when anything is developing.
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ckiefer
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Posts: 258
Registered: 12-12-2007
Location: LaJolla
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Wet your finger and stick it out the window.....
Pay not attention to me, working on 10 more posts.....
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pappy
Senior Nomad
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Registered: 12-10-2003
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today the weather channel started posting facts for east pacific hurricane season.(starts today through november) all i can say is that last years'
total was well below average, with no real forcast-as of yet- for what might happen this season...
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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All they know for sure is what they will be called....Until the name change again.  :
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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2008
CORRECTED NAMES MARIE AND YOLANDA
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALMA
BORIS
CRISTINA
DOUGLAS
ELIDA
FAUSTO
GENEVIEVE
HERNAN
ISELLE
JULIO
KARINA
LOWELL
MARIE
NORBERT
ODILE
POLO
RACHEL
SIMON
TRUDY
VANCE
WINNIE
XAVIER
YOLANDA
ZEKE
...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/151351.shtml
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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bajajazz
Nomad
Posts: 386
Registered: 12-18-2006
Location: La Paz, BCS, Mexico
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The contempt some posters show for truly professional meteorologists reminds me of an event that preceded the disastrous hurricane early in the 20th
Century that devastated Galveston, Texas.
Galveston's resident weather "expert" was warned by Cubans that a monster storm was on the way but since Cubans were colored people, what the hell did
they know?
The fact that Cubans had a long history of dealing with hurricanes originating in the Atlantic, the Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico, and had acquired
a lot of expertise in hurricane predictions and behavior over the centuries, was completely discounted by Galveston's gringo "weatherman."
When the storm that the Cubans had accurately predicted hit, Galveston was destroyed and six thousand people died. Moral: we ignore the informed
opinions of genuine experts at our own peril.
The really bad news? We'll do it again.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
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No matter what the prediction, buy the generator fill with oil but not gas, and keep fresh gas on hand when one hits. 
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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comitan, That's some very good advice.
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