Photog
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Mexican oil and the Cantarell oil Field
A few facts and statistics regarding Mexican oil:
(1) Mexican domestic oil production fell 9.3% in the first 5 months of this year. If this rate persists annual production decline for 2008 will be
around 20%
(2) Mexican domestic gasoline consumption rose 5.5% during the same 5 month period.
http://www.oem.com.mx/elsoldetijuana/notas/n741458.htm
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=news§ionid=8&a...
(3) The Baja peninsula has no pipeline connections to any production / refinery facilities and instead relies on ocean going tankers and barges for
petroleum product distribution.
(4) Fuel shortages or "outages" have been a problem for resource management / distribution in Baja for many years. Shortages and outages have been a
problem throughout Mexico in the past for various reasons, not just in Baja. Pemex predicts that if significant changes are not made to the manner in
which the infrastructure is managed / maintained, and the way in which they are currently constrained from a business practices,
technology and partnering standpoint, shortages may become wide spread.
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=news§ionid=8&a...
(5) Refining capacity is a huge down stream bottleneck or choke point as regards availability of petroleum products at the retail end (gas station),
both in the US and in Mexico. Mexico, like the US, lacks refining capacity which hugely affects the availability of refined petroleum products at the
retail end.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2007/051...
(6) The Canterrel oil field complex, the largest field in Mexico, and one of the largest in the world, reached peak production in 2004 and has been
rapidly declining in output since that year.
According to Pemex the Canterell produced 59% of all oil pumped in Mexico during the year 2005. The Pemex official line is that there are sufficient
resources and pumping capacity in 3 other fields in the Gulf Of Mexico to make up for this short fall, however, this has been disputed by their own
engineers in the exploration and production division, and as of 2008 it would appear the engineers have been validated by the numbers as regards
overall Mexican oil production declines.
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=news§ionID=8&a...
(7) " Luis Ramírez Corzo, head of PEMEX's exploration and production division, announced on August 12th, 2004 that the actual oil output from
Cantarell is forecast to decline steeply from 2006 onwards, at a rate of 14% per year. In March 2006 it was reported that Cantarell had already
peaked, with a second year of declining production in 2005. For 2006, the field's output declined by 13.1%, according to Jesus Reyes Heroles, the
director-general of PEMEX. Heróles also predicted a decline of 15% for 2007. By 2008 it is estimated that Cantarell will only produce 1 million
barrel/d (160,000 m³/d) as it continues to decline. This rapid decline is postulated to be a result of production enhancement techniques causing
faster oil extraction at the expense of field longevity ".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
(8) Mexico is a net importer of refined petroleum products, gasoline, and is thus subject to all of the international market pressures felt in the US,
Europe and Asia, which directly affect pricing, as well as availability, of petroleum products.
(9) China's increased demand for oil has risen close to 70% since the year 2000, far outstripping any other nation in the world, and having a
significant impact on oil availability and pricing. India's oil consumption has risen approximately 18% in the same period; US oil consumption by
comparison has risen less than 10% during the same period.
See link below item (5)
(10) Petroleum pricing at the retail end is affected by other variables beside the actual amount of crude pumped and shipped to processing locations,
not the least of which is speculation in the oil commodities / futures market....." Fadel Gheit, managing director of oil and gas
research for Oppenheimer and Co., and Jim Norman, author of the book "The Oil Card", coming out next month, say that speculation is responsible for a
huge part of the run-up in prices. The growing demand for oil by India and China and the instability of oil supplies certainly account for much of the
increase. But the recent spike, they say, is equally due to the weakness of the dollar and massive speculation".
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/06/18/oil-prices-08%e2%8...
A few interesting references are here:
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=33864
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
[Edited on 6-21-2008 by Photog]
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DENNIS
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Photog.........
Thanks for taking the time to put that together. It'll take me a couple of days to fully appreciate it.
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Bruce R Leech
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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when the oil is gone Mexico should declare war on the USA and lose in the first 8 hours. then they will be set for life,
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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dean miller
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
when the oil is gone Mexico should declare war on the USA and lose in the first 8 hours. then they will be set for life, |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Was the subject of a book and a movie;
The book: "The mouse that roared," by Lenard Webberly
The movie; "The mouse that roared," starring the late Peter Sellers.
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fulano
Banned
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Location: Ramona, CA
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
when the oil is gone Mexico should declare war on the USA and lose in the first 8 hours. then they will be set for life, |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or9C-gt4TpA&eurl=http://v...
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
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Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Dean you Win both prizes
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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TMW
Select Nomad
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Location: Bakersfield, CA
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["(5) Refining capacity is a huge down stream bottleneck or choke point as regards availability of petroleum products at the retail end (gas station),
both in the US and in Mexico. Mexico, like the US, lacks refining capacity which hugely affects the availability of refined petroleum products at the
retail end."]
An oil consultant was on radio yesterday and said the oil companies are reluctant to build any refineries in the U.S. because they cost a billion
dollars per in todays money and takes years to build because of the enviromental requirements.
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TonyC
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Registered: 1-25-2008
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| Quote: | Originally posted by TW
["(5) Refining capacity is a huge down stream bottleneck or choke point as regards availability of petroleum products at the retail end (gas station),
both in the US and in Mexico. Mexico, like the US, lacks refining capacity which hugely affects the availability of refined petroleum products at the
retail end."]
An oil consultant was on radio yesterday and said the oil companies are reluctant to build any refineries in the U.S. because they cost a billion
dollars per in todays money and takes years to build because of the enviromental requirements. |
Also most of the oil Mexico has is heavy and sour which requires complex refining, which they lack. Your right the enviromental requirements to build
refineries (especially Cailfornia) adds to why gasoline and diesel prices are crazy high. The 2005 Texas city incidient with BP adds to the problem,
with regards to building new refineries.
[Edited on 6-22-2008 by TonyC]
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