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Author: Subject: Tropical Depression 11E-Now TS Julio
bajalou
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 01:26 PM


The predictions from Weather Underground I just looked at show 2 paths way to the east, onshore in Sonora or close. 1 ending around LA Bay and 2 heading out to sea from Cabo.

Of course the Sonora tracks would produce some rain and wind, but nothing like Nora in 97 when if came almost directly over San Felipe.

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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 01:45 PM


The latest animation kind of shows Julio taking a small westerly turn away from Baja's west coast. So, maybe the peninsula in for a good soaking without the winds. Steady rain here in Nopolo, but nothing we can't handle. Temps dropped into high 70's. Nice.:bounce:

[Edited on 8-24-2008 by vandenberg]




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 01:53 PM


1450 hr. here is Todos Santos

We are getting very blustery winds with a dark sky.

Seems to be in bands of very dark to light sky.

No real rain so far but a lot of wind.

Power was off and on a couple of times but holding now.

Temp. is 87 F. Wind coming from the West South West ..



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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 01:54 PM


Sat. image

julio1 (Custom).jpg - 48kB




I think my photographic memory ran out of film


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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 02:26 PM


I live in Loreto Bay in Nopolo.
It is 3:30PM Sunday.
We had a nice rain a couple of hours ago.
Now it is a gentle rain with no wind




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sad.gif posted on 8-24-2008 at 02:34 PM
You're just kidding....right??




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 02:40 PM


TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AROUND
THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL
POCITO...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 02:43 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by David K
This makes a trip south of San Felipe interesting for next weekend!:o


David, I would think that it will all be over by the time you get down there on Saturday... you will probably have wonderful weather with nice breezes.
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 03:05 PM


I am not kidding.
I am just stating what is happening right now in Loreto Bay. In fact I just went over to Loreto Bay Inn and there are very few people there.
There is a group of guys sitting under a covering by the pool having a drink.
Obviously there is a big storm around but right now at 4:00 pm it is a gentle rain with no wind.




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 03:10 PM


Sharks
I know that looks bad but it has been a non event here too.
We have had sprinkles and some gusts but nothing serious.
The rain is welcomed and the wind has blown all the dead leaves off my ficus and jasmine...kind of a wind pruning.

[Edited on 8-24-2008 by bajajudy]




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 03:18 PM


Thanks Judy for the words of moral support . Granted the storm lacks the punch of John but remember the flood that swept thru Mulege had little or no winds with it. It's those big mountains behind there.

Do you have a pic of the beans?




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 03:20 PM


1615 hrs. Todos Santos Sunday

Another band approaching from WSW with lightening included in this one.

Lightening is still about two miles off the coast.
Temp. 84 F.

Will be shutting down soon as I am afraid the fifteen foot mast on my roof might become a lightening rod. So will disconnect the transmitter/receiver ... shut of power to trans and unplug the LAN cable from my computer.

This is my first storm so I am not sure what to expect.

I am hoping my power stays on as I have a triple feature running in my home theatre !!!

Rain just started.

More updates later.

CaboRon


[Edited on 8-24-2008 by CaboRon]




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 03:49 PM


Judy summed it up well! Other than a little rain, Julio is a non-event for Centenario/La Paz area. No thunder & lightening here since Saturday around noon. It DOES look bad on the weather sites, but it must just be clouds, Still no wind here...nary a breeze.

Of course, in typical fashion, it could just be waiting for nightfall to lamblast us!:lol:
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:06 PM


sharkman...5:04 and just light sprinkles here on the bay

the pubelo looks pretty clear still...from here

the clouds are up in the mountains




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:11 PM


Julio? Maybe a little rain, at most, less than half that of Hurricane John.:o WTF!:o That's six feet of water spilling over the banks of the Rio Mulege.:o Just joking!:lol: Expect it will be a breeze with a few showers. A welcome rain and maybe cool things off.:yes:
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:11 PM


5pm Its over in my section of San Jose. Not much rain at all today. Some gusty winds. That's about it. Ocean is laying down nicely. People are out walking the beach right now.
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:15 PM


Wow we just had a small thunderstorm and rain here in Punta Banda south of Ensenada, hope it rains alot as we need it badly.;D
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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:18 PM


1715 hrs. Todos Santos

Lightening has passed and now it is

Raining like crazy, never seen this much rain in my life.

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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 04:57 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
1715 hrs. Todos Santos

Lightening has passed and now it is

Raining like crazy, never seen this much rain in my life.

CaboRon


Rain coming down straight or wind associated with it, Ron?

Very threatening skies to the SW over here on the Sonoran coast.




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[*] posted on 8-24-2008 at 05:02 PM


Marv Sherrill and others in L.A. Bay... and any Gonzaga Bay Nomads, Puertecitos and San Felipe area Nomads... Please let us hear from you as the storm hits... Thanks!



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