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k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
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Baja real estate prices
Buy low, sell high - simple enough, but so hard to do. You need to go against the flow and put down some hard earned cash.
If you had to predict where the real estate prices in the TJ/Ensenada corridor will be 10 years from now, what would you say?
Higher, lower, about the same, and why?
Given that the baja economy is greatly affected by the US economy, especially in the north, and the pig in the python boomer demographics will soon be
in full swing retirement, maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.
Waddya think?
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
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Location: Loreto, BCS
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if you're a speculator only here to make money on the RE transaction then you'd want to buy low sell high but if you want the property for personal
reasons it doesn't matter. the market will mirror whatever happens in the USA. so the question is now how will the US economy perform 10 years from
now. i personally don't give a crap anymore just enjoying life and in a nice place to do it.
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Bajaboy
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Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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If you're looking strictly for a return, I'd put your money in the market. I do think that area will increase in value just as the rest of Southern
California. But there are so many "ifs" along the way. If you plan on using the property then it might make more sense.
Zac
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.
Waddya think? |
The market here has come to a stand-still. There are no buyers. People are discounting their properties to rock bottom but, still there are no
buyers. Hearing of an occasional sale or purchase is unusual, big news.
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CaboRon
Ultra Nomad
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Location: The Valley of the Moon
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.
Waddya think? |
The market here has come to a stand-still. There are no buyers. People are discounting their properties to rock bottom but, still there are no
buyers. Hearing of an occasional sale or purchase is unusual, big news. |
Same here Dennis,
I have counted over two hundred for sale signs in Todos Santos.
CaboRon
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Bajajorge
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2604
Registered: 10-13-2005
Location: Topaz Lake, NV/San Felipe
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The Baja Boom has now turned into the Baja Bust. Just as the real estate market in the US, the bottom has fallen out big time. In San Felipe one of
the better custom home builders(a Mexican local) had over 200 housing starts during the "Boom". As of about November 2008, he had only 3 housing
starts. Ain't the economy grand?
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
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Mood: gone fishin'
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10 years from now why don't you become a Mexican citizen then buy ejido land and sell after ten years when you can make money on it? or just squat on
some land for five years and its yours practically free. what the hell!
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Woooosh
Banned
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Location: Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by flyfishinPam
if you're a speculator only here to make money on the RE transaction then you'd want to buy low sell high but if you want the property for personal
reasons it doesn't matter. the market will mirror whatever happens in the USA. so the question is now how will the US economy perform 10 years from
now. i personally don't give a crap anymore just enjoying life and in a nice place to do it. |
Totally agree. If it's your home and it is paid for- it doesn't matter what the current market value is. I think the USA will need to make a full
housing recovery before Baja even becomes noticed by investors again. It may never recover if the security situation doesn't improve.
The Baja boom in norte was about people who thought they were cash rich- looking to maximaize their investment portfolios. It wasn't even making
sense before the bust when those OC developers started building million dollar homes in Puerto Nuevo. I think they all believed each others hype-
like the Donald.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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k-rico
Super Nomad
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Location: Playas de Tijuana
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Interesting replies. A couple have pointed out that the market is at rock bottom, maybe so, maybe it will go lower. But that is exactly my point.
Buy low.
I know there are other places to put money. I've just been thinking lately that maybe, because it is a buyer's market, perhaps taking advantage of the
situation is a good idea. I already own 3 properties in the TJ area. I live in one and rent the others (to Mexicans). Just thinking another rental
might be good - reliable 6% or so annual return on investment and growth potential.
"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate." As the saying goes.
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DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?
Thanks
Diane
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
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Mood: optimistic
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K-rico------------long term (10 yrs plus) I believe your thinking is right on. If this type of thinking does not pan out, it will only be because
EVERYTHING has tanked, and then who cares anyway---------we will all be in the same fix.
Me, I am betting on the the Market, as History tells me that is the best thing to do--------but I sold some stock and paid off ALL my debt in mid-2007
because I did not like what I saw even then--------now I am thanking my lucky stars--------50% luck, 50% paying attention.
I am fully invested now other than about $100K in Money M. funds and GNMA Funds, and waiting--------stick with what you know most about, and wait for
better times to reward you-------------that's what I think. (for what it's worth---:rolleyes
Barry
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
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Location: La Chorera
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| Quote: | Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?
Thanks
Diane |
Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what
RE activity exists today in Baja is happening.
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
Interesting replies. A couple have pointed out that the market is at rock bottom, maybe so, maybe it will go lower. But that is exactly my point.
Buy low.
I know there are other places to put money. I've just been thinking lately that maybe, because it is a buyer's market, perhaps taking advantage of the
situation is a good idea. I already own 3 properties in the TJ area. I live in one and rent the others (to Mexicans). Just thinking another rental
might be good - reliable 6% or so annual return on investment and growth potential.
"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate." As the saying goes. |
So why not invest in San Diego area? I would not want all of my real estate holdings in Mexico. We have been poking our noses around and there are
some incredible deals to be had. But, I am with Barry...the market will turn-around well before real estate. Just in case I am wrong, though, I put
some money into a real estate fund.
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BMG
Super Nomad
Posts: 1776
Registered: 6-10-2007
Location: La Paz / Bahia Asunci�n / Away from home
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
| Quote: | Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?
Thanks
Diane |
Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what
RE activity exists today in Baja is happening. |
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what
property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone,
how can anyone else know?
I think the world is run by C- students.
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k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BMG
| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
| Quote: | Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?
Thanks
Diane |
Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what
RE activity exists today in Baja is happening. |
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what
property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone,
how can anyone else know? |
I use this site for the area I'm interested in. There are other websites for other areas. RE/MAX has a lot of offices in Mexico.
http://www.bienesraicesenlinea.com.mx/
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
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Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BMG
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when
we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone, how can anyone else know? |
It is mostly word of mouth. I work with and travel to a lot of companies down here (in and out of the tourist corridor) and have watched what has
happened on a regional basis. The only way you can get a good handle on what is going on is to invest some time in the areas you are interested in.
Folks down here love a good "chisme" and details like selling price of a piece of property can usually be had.
I really think that areas like San Quintin, Bahia Asuncion and others that still have cheap ocean front/view property available are the deals to go
for right now. They have access to services, building materials and labor and yet are fairly insulated from the narco violence that has taken over
other areas of Baja (so far).
That is my take on the market right now and one that we are pursuing.
YMMV...
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Gaucho
Nomad
Posts: 405
Registered: 11-7-2008
Location: Laguna Beach/East Cape
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I absolutely agree with BG. If you really want to get in on the "ground floor" of the next great waterfront community I would look at areas in and
around San Quintin and Bahia Asuncion. Hearing from Shari and others what lots are going for is just unbelievable compared to the prices further down
the cape. Times are tough but if I had an extra 10-15k to spend I would be buying in those areas.
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DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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Our home is Bahia Asuncion is ocean front---property line next to the federal zone and with the improvements we have on it, we are just curious what
it might be worth, but it is difficult to determine. The only similar property is Laurieboat's next door to us.
We like to keep up on the value of things, but in this case, it is difficult to determine. Everything else that has been selling in Bahia Asuncion is
very different, not useful as comparables.
Oh well, probably not important at this time, just like to keep up on things.
Diane
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
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I'll leave to those more knowledgeable than myself regarding places like San Quintin and Bahia Asuncion, but in general, the Mexican real estate
market lags behind the U.S. market. Prices have been declining for several years in parts of the states. Prices haven't hit bottom yet, and not for
awhile, as unemployment keeps rising. In my opinion, once there are signs of recovering prices in the U.S. then would be an ideal time to lock in on
Mexican real estate. That being said, simply from the standpoint of the best deal. What others have said regarding enjoying their lifestyles, is
another story.
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Gaucho
Nomad
Posts: 405
Registered: 11-7-2008
Location: Laguna Beach/East Cape
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Mood: Bohemia por favor...
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When I consider a piece of property I look at the tangibles. The things that won't change (for the most part). Location, view, size of the lot,
proximity to restaurants, stores etc...
"You can change the house but you can't change the location" 
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