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k-rico
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:15 AM
Baja real estate prices


Buy low, sell high - simple enough, but so hard to do. You need to go against the flow and put down some hard earned cash.

If you had to predict where the real estate prices in the TJ/Ensenada corridor will be 10 years from now, what would you say?

Higher, lower, about the same, and why?

Given that the baja economy is greatly affected by the US economy, especially in the north, and the pig in the python boomer demographics will soon be in full swing retirement, maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.

Waddya think?
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flyfishinPam
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:37 AM


if you're a speculator only here to make money on the RE transaction then you'd want to buy low sell high but if you want the property for personal reasons it doesn't matter. the market will mirror whatever happens in the USA. so the question is now how will the US economy perform 10 years from now. i personally don't give a crap anymore just enjoying life and in a nice place to do it.



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Bajaboy
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:40 AM


If you're looking strictly for a return, I'd put your money in the market. I do think that area will increase in value just as the rest of Southern California. But there are so many "ifs" along the way. If you plan on using the property then it might make more sense.

Zac




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:42 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.

Waddya think?


The market here has come to a stand-still. There are no buyers. People are discounting their properties to rock bottom but, still there are no buyers. Hearing of an occasional sale or purchase is unusual, big news.
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CaboRon
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:47 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
maybe buying today at highly discounted prices will look like a wise move 10 years from now.

Waddya think?


The market here has come to a stand-still. There are no buyers. People are discounting their properties to rock bottom but, still there are no buyers. Hearing of an occasional sale or purchase is unusual, big news.


Same here Dennis,

I have counted over two hundred for sale signs in Todos Santos.

CaboRon




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 08:57 AM


The Baja Boom has now turned into the Baja Bust. Just as the real estate market in the US, the bottom has fallen out big time. In San Felipe one of the better custom home builders(a Mexican local) had over 200 housing starts during the "Boom". As of about November 2008, he had only 3 housing starts. Ain't the economy grand?
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flyfishinPam
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:00 AM


10 years from now why don't you become a Mexican citizen then buy ejido land and sell after ten years when you can make money on it? or just squat on some land for five years and its yours practically free. what the hell!



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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:22 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by flyfishinPam
if you're a speculator only here to make money on the RE transaction then you'd want to buy low sell high but if you want the property for personal reasons it doesn't matter. the market will mirror whatever happens in the USA. so the question is now how will the US economy perform 10 years from now. i personally don't give a crap anymore just enjoying life and in a nice place to do it.


Totally agree. If it's your home and it is paid for- it doesn't matter what the current market value is. I think the USA will need to make a full housing recovery before Baja even becomes noticed by investors again. It may never recover if the security situation doesn't improve.

The Baja boom in norte was about people who thought they were cash rich- looking to maximaize their investment portfolios. It wasn't even making sense before the bust when those OC developers started building million dollar homes in Puerto Nuevo. I think they all believed each others hype- like the Donald.




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k-rico
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:35 AM


Interesting replies. A couple have pointed out that the market is at rock bottom, maybe so, maybe it will go lower. But that is exactly my point.

Buy low.

I know there are other places to put money. I've just been thinking lately that maybe, because it is a buyer's market, perhaps taking advantage of the situation is a good idea. I already own 3 properties in the TJ area. I live in one and rent the others (to Mexicans). Just thinking another rental might be good - reliable 6% or so annual return on investment and growth potential.

"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate." As the saying goes.
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:38 AM


Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?

Thanks
Diane




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Barry A.
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:49 AM


K-rico------------long term (10 yrs plus) I believe your thinking is right on. If this type of thinking does not pan out, it will only be because EVERYTHING has tanked, and then who cares anyway---------we will all be in the same fix.

Me, I am betting on the the Market, as History tells me that is the best thing to do--------but I sold some stock and paid off ALL my debt in mid-2007 because I did not like what I saw even then--------now I am thanking my lucky stars--------50% luck, 50% paying attention.

I am fully invested now other than about $100K in Money M. funds and GNMA Funds, and waiting--------stick with what you know most about, and wait for better times to reward you-------------that's what I think. (for what it's worth---:rolleyes:)

Barry
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 09:56 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?

Thanks
Diane


Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what RE activity exists today in Baja is happening.




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 10:12 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
Interesting replies. A couple have pointed out that the market is at rock bottom, maybe so, maybe it will go lower. But that is exactly my point.

Buy low.

I know there are other places to put money. I've just been thinking lately that maybe, because it is a buyer's market, perhaps taking advantage of the situation is a good idea. I already own 3 properties in the TJ area. I live in one and rent the others (to Mexicans). Just thinking another rental might be good - reliable 6% or so annual return on investment and growth potential.

"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate." As the saying goes.


So why not invest in San Diego area? I would not want all of my real estate holdings in Mexico. We have been poking our noses around and there are some incredible deals to be had. But, I am with Barry...the market will turn-around well before real estate. Just in case I am wrong, though, I put some money into a real estate fund.




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 10:19 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
Quote:
Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?

Thanks
Diane


Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what RE activity exists today in Baja is happening.
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone, how can anyone else know?



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k-rico
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 10:30 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BMG
Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
Quote:
Originally posted by jdtrotter
Anyone know what has been happening to prices and selling in the more out of the way places---away from the bigger tourist and real estate boom areas?

Thanks
Diane


Those areas did not see a big spike in the "boom" Diane, and although the market is soft, have not taken a big hit either. It is in those areas what RE activity exists today in Baja is happening.
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone, how can anyone else know?


I use this site for the area I'm interested in. There are other websites for other areas. RE/MAX has a lot of offices in Mexico.

http://www.bienesraicesenlinea.com.mx/
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 10:31 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BMG
How do you find out? What is the source for finding out what property and houses are selling for? So many deals are between private parties like when we bought our house so unless we or the seller tells someone, how can anyone else know?


It is mostly word of mouth. I work with and travel to a lot of companies down here (in and out of the tourist corridor) and have watched what has happened on a regional basis. The only way you can get a good handle on what is going on is to invest some time in the areas you are interested in. Folks down here love a good "chisme" and details like selling price of a piece of property can usually be had.

I really think that areas like San Quintin, Bahia Asuncion and others that still have cheap ocean front/view property available are the deals to go for right now. They have access to services, building materials and labor and yet are fairly insulated from the narco violence that has taken over other areas of Baja (so far).

That is my take on the market right now and one that we are pursuing.

YMMV...




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 11:10 AM


I absolutely agree with BG. If you really want to get in on the "ground floor" of the next great waterfront community I would look at areas in and around San Quintin and Bahia Asuncion. Hearing from Shari and others what lots are going for is just unbelievable compared to the prices further down the cape. Times are tough but if I had an extra 10-15k to spend I would be buying in those areas.
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 11:22 AM


Our home is Bahia Asuncion is ocean front---property line next to the federal zone and with the improvements we have on it, we are just curious what it might be worth, but it is difficult to determine. The only similar property is Laurieboat's next door to us.

We like to keep up on the value of things, but in this case, it is difficult to determine. Everything else that has been selling in Bahia Asuncion is very different, not useful as comparables.

Oh well, probably not important at this time, just like to keep up on things.

Diane




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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 11:24 AM


I'll leave to those more knowledgeable than myself regarding places like San Quintin and Bahia Asuncion, but in general, the Mexican real estate market lags behind the U.S. market. Prices have been declining for several years in parts of the states. Prices haven't hit bottom yet, and not for awhile, as unemployment keeps rising. In my opinion, once there are signs of recovering prices in the U.S. then would be an ideal time to lock in on Mexican real estate. That being said, simply from the standpoint of the best deal. What others have said regarding enjoying their lifestyles, is another story.
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[*] posted on 2-17-2009 at 12:00 PM


When I consider a piece of property I look at the tangibles. The things that won't change (for the most part). Location, view, size of the lot, proximity to restaurants, stores etc...

"You can change the house but you can't change the location" :yes:
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