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beercan
Senior Nomad
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Location: North of da Bear
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Mood: happy to be in Baja
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The Three Wars in Mexico
By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Mexico has pretty much always been a rough-and-tumble place. In recent years, however, the security environment has deteriorated rapidly, and parts of
the country have become incredibly violent. It is now common to see military weaponry such as fragmentation grenades and assault rifles used almost
daily in attacks.
In fact, just last week we noted two separate strings of grenade attacks directed against police in Durango and Michoacan states. In the Michoacan
incident, police in Uruapan and Lazaro Card##as were targeted by three grenade attacks during a 12-hour period. Then on Feb. 17, a major firefight
occurred just across the border from the United States in Reynosa, when Mexican authorities attempted to apprehend several armed men seen riding in a
vehicle. The men fled to a nearby residence and engaged the pursuing police with gunfire, hand grenades and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). After
the incident, in which five cartel gunmen were killed and several gunmen, cops, soldiers and civilians were wounded, aut horities recovered a 60 mm
mortar, five RPG rounds and two fragmentation grenades.
Make no mistake, considering the military weapons now being used in Mexico and the number of deaths involved, the country is in the middle of a war.
In fact, there are actually three concurrent wars being waged in Mexico involving the Mexican drug cartels. The first is the battle being waged among
the various Mexican drug cartels seeking control over lucrative smuggling corridors, called plazas. One such battleground is Ciudad Juarez, which
provides access to the Interstate 10, Interstate 20 and Interstate 25 corridors inside the United States. The second battle is being fought between
the various cartels and the Mexican government forces who are seeking to interrupt smuggling operations, curb violence and bring the cartel members to
justice.
Then there is a third war being waged in Mexico, though because of its nature it is a bit more subdued. It does not get the same degree of
international media attention generated by the running gun battles and grenade and RPG attacks. However, it is no less real, and in many ways it is
more dangerous to innocent civilians (as well as foreign tourists and business travelers) than the pitched battles between the cartels and the Mexican
government. This third war is the war being waged on the Mexican population by criminals who may or may not be involved with the cartels. Unlike the
other battles, where cartel members or government forces are the primary targets and civilians are only killed as collateral damage, on this
battlefront, civilians are squarely in the crosshairs.
The Criminal Front
There are many different shapes and sizes of criminal gangs in Mexico. While many of them are in some way related to the drug cartels, others have
various types of connections to law enforcement — indeed, some criminal groups are composed of active and retired cops. These various types of
criminal gangs target civilians in a number of ways, including, robbery, burglary, carjacking, extortion, fraud and counterfeiting. But of all the
crimes committed by these gangs, perhaps the one that creates the most widespread psychological and emotional damage is kidnapping, which also is one
of the most underreported crimes. There is no accurate figure for the number of kidnappings that occur in Mexico each year. All of the data regarding
kidnapping is based on partial crime statistics and anecdotal accounts and, in the end, can produce only best-guess estimates. Despite this lack of
hard data, however, there is little doubt — based even on the low end of these estimates & #8212; that Mexico has become the kidnapping capital of
the world.
One of the difficult things about studying kidnapping in Mexico is that the crime not only is widespread, affecting almost every corner of the
country, but also is executed by a wide range of actors who possess varying levels of professionalism — and very different motives. At one end of the
spectrum are the high-end kidnapping gangs that abduct high-net-worth individuals and demand ransoms in the millions of dollars. Such groups employ
teams of operatives who carry out specialized tasks such as collecting intelligence, conducting surveillance, snatching the target, negotiating with
the victim’s family and establishing and guarding the safe houses.
At the other end of the spectrum are gangs that roam the streets and randomly kidnap targets of opportunity. These gangs are generally less
professional than the high-end gangs and often will hold a victim for only a short time. In many instances, these groups hold the victim just long
enough to use the victim’s ATM card to drain his or her checking account, or to receive a small ransom of perhaps several hundred or a few thousand
dollars from the family. This type of opportunistic kidnapping is often referred to as an “express kidnapping”. Sometimes express kidnapping victims
are held in the trunk of a car for the duration of their ordeal, which can sometimes last for days if the victim has a large amount in a checking
account and a small daily ATM withdrawal limit. Other times, if an express kidnapping gang dis covers it has grabbed a high-value target by accident,
the gang will hold the victim longer and demand a much higher ransom. Occasionally, these express kidnapping groups will even “sell” a high-value
victim to a more professional kidnapping gang.
Between these extremes there is a wide range of groups that fall somewhere in the middle. These are the groups that might target a bank vice president
or branch manager rather than the bank’s CEO, or that might kidnap the owner of a restaurant or other small business rather than a wealthy
industrialist. The presence of such a broad spectrum of kidnapping groups ensures that almost no segment of the population is immune from the
kidnapping threat. In recent years, the sheer magnitude of the threat in Mexico and the fear it generates has led to a crime called virtual
kidnapping. In a virtual kidnapping, the victim is not really kidnapped. Instead, the criminals seek to convince a target’s family that a kidnapping
has occurred, and then use threats and psychological pressure to force the family to pay a quick ransom. Although virtua l kidnapping has been around
for several years, unwitting families continue to fall for the scam, which is a source of easy money. Some virtual kidnappings have even been
conducted by criminals using telephones inside prisons.
As noted above, the motives for kidnapping vary. Many of the kidnappings that occur in Mexico are not conducted for ransom. Often the drug cartels
will kidnap members of rival gangs or government officials in order to torture and execute them. This torture is conducted to extract information,
intimidate rivals and, apparently in some cases, just to have a little fun. The bodies of such victims are frequently found beheaded or otherwise
mutilated. Other times, cartel gunmen will kidnap drug dealers who are tardy in payments or who refuse to pay the “tax” required to operate in the
cartel’s area of control.
Of course, cartel gunmen do not kidnap only their rivals or cops. As the cartel wars have heated up, and as drug revenues have dropped due to
interference from rival cartels or the government, many cartels have resorted to kidnapping for ransom to supplement their cash flow. Perhaps the most
widely known group that is engaging in this is the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO), also known as the Tijuana Cartel. The AFO has been reduced to a
shadow of its former self, its smuggling operations dramatically impacted by the efforts of the U.S. and Mexican governments, as well as by attacks
from other cartels and from an internal power struggle. Because of a steep decrease in smuggling revenues, the group has turned to kidnapping and
extortion in order to raise the funds necessary to keep itself alive and to return to prominence as a smuggl ing organization.
In the Line of Fire
There is very little chance the Mexican government will be able to establish integrity in its law enforcement agencies, or bring law and order to
large portions of the country, any time soon. Official corruption and ineptitude are endemic in Mexico, which means that Mexican citizens and visiting
foreigners will have to face the threat of kidnapping for the foreseeable future. We believe that for civilians and visiting foreigners, the threat of
kidnapping exceeds the threat of being hit by a stray bullet from a cartel firefight. Indeed, things are deteriorating so badly that even professional
kidnapping negotiators, once seen as the key to a guaranteed payout, are now being kidnapped themselves. In an even more incredible twist of irony,
anti-kidnapping authorities are being abducted and executed.
This environment — and the concerns it has sparked — has provided huge financial opportunities for the private security industry in Mexico. Armored
car sales have gone through the roof, as have the number of uniformed guards and executive protection personnel. In fact, the demand for personnel is
so acute that security companies are scrambling to find candidates. Such a scramble presents a host of obvious problems, ranging from lack of
qualifications to insufficient vetting. In addition to old-fashioned security services, new security-technology companies are also cashing in on the
environment of fear, but even high-tech tracking devices can have significant drawbacks and shortcomings.
For many people, armored cars and armed bodyguards can provide a false sense of security, and technology can become a deadly crutch that promotes
complacency and actually increases vulnerability. Physical security measures are not enough. The presence of armed bodyguards — or armed guards
combined with armored vehicles — does not provide absolute security. This is especially true in Mexico, where large teams of gunmen regularly conduct
crimes using military ordnance. Frankly, there are very few executive protection details in the world that have the training and armament to withstand
an assault by dozens of attackers armed with assault rifles and RPGs. Private security guards are frequently overwhelmed by Mexican crimi nals and
either killed or forced to flee for their own safety. As we noted in May 2008 after the assassination of Edgar Millan Gomez, acting head of the
Mexican Federal Police and the highest-ranking federal cop in Mexico, physical security measures must be supplemented by situational awareness,
countersurveillance and protective intelligence.
Criminals look for and exploit vulnerabilities. Their chances for success increase greatly if they are allowed to conduct surveillance at will and are
given the opportunity to thoroughly assess the protective security program. We have seen several cases in Mexico in which the criminals even chose to
attack despite security measures. In such cases, criminals attack with adequate resources to overcome existing security. For example, if there are
protective agents, the attackers will plan to neutralize them first. If there is an armored vehicle, they will find ways to defeat the armor or grab
the target when he or she is outside the vehicle. Because of this, criminals must not be allowed to conduct surveillance at will.
Like many crimes, kidnapping is a process. There are certain steps that must be taken to conduct a kidnapping and certain times during the process
when those executing it are vulnerable to detection. While these steps may be condensed and accomplished quite quickly in an ad hoc express
kidnapping, they are nonetheless followed. In fact, because of the particular steps involved in conducting a kidnapping, the process is not unlike
that followed to execute a terrorist attack. The common steps are target selection, planning, deployment, attack, escape and exploitation.
Like the perpetrators of a terrorist attack, those conducting a kidnapping are most vulnerable to detection when they are conducting surveillance —
before they are ready to deploy and conduct their attack. As we’ve noted several times in past analyses, one of the secrets of countersurveillance is
that most criminals are not very good at conducting surveillance. The primary reason they succeed is that no one is looking for them.
Of course, kidnappers are also very obvious once they launch their attack, pull their weapons and perhaps even begin to shoot. By this time, however,
it might very well be too late to escape their attack. They will have selected their attack site and employed the forces they believe they need to
complete the operation. While the kidnappers could botch their operation and the target could escape unscathed, it is simply not practical to pin
one’s hopes on that possibility. It is clearly better to spot the kidnappers early and avoid their trap before it is sprung and the guns come out.
We have seen many instances of people in Mexico with armed security being kidnapped, and we believe we will likely see more cases of this in the
coming months. This trend is due not only to the presence of highly armed and aggressive criminals and the low quality of some security personnel, but
also to people placing their trust solely in reactive physical security. Ignoring the very real value of critical, proactive measures such as
situational awareness, countersurveillance and protective intelligence can be a fatal mistake.
Tell Stratfor What You Think
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* libs, all about choice until you choose different
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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FEARMONGERING
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
FEARMONGERING |
If you are not afraid, you are also SOS. It seems like a simple summary of the actual security situation we have faced in Baja Norte the past two
years. I know from experience it is true.
The only recent surprise for me has been the Narcos use of bazookas and other high-powered military weapons- going way beyond the AK-47's.
There are not many well-paying career opportunites for the uneducated masses that join the drug gangs. What's their other option? These guys won't go
back to work for minimum wage- even if there were constrution jobs avaialable now. The downward spiral is about to touch ground as the world economy
hits crisis level. JMHO
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Bajajack
Banned
Posts: 370
Registered: 5-20-2007
Location: Arizona
Member Is Offline
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Did somebody say, gone to Hell in a Handbasket.
\"take what you can, give nothing back!\"
We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the
American people.\'
Theodore Roosevelt 1907
We can have no \"50-50\" allegiance in this country. Either a man is an American and nothing else, or he is not an American at all.
Theodore Roosevelt
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k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
Member Is Offline
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CaboRon
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3401
Registered: 3-24-2007
Location: The Valley of the Moon
Member Is Offline
Mood: Peacefull
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| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
FEARMONGERING |
Your head is in the ground ...
If you do not recognize the problem you become a part of the problem.
CaboRon
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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| Quote: | Originally posted by CaboRon
| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
FEARMONGERING |
Your head is in the ground ...
If you do not recognize the problem you become a part of the problem.
CaboRon |
Isn't it about time for you to run back to the safety of the good old USA. 
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beercan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 4-3-2005
Location: North of da Bear
Member Is Offline
Mood: happy to be in Baja
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Can't handle the truth--can't handle the facts??
| Quote: | by vandy
Isn't it about time for you to run back to the safety of the good old USA.
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[Edited on 2-19-2009 by beercan]
* libs, all about choice until you choose different
* B. Hussein Obama - an Empty Suit for Empty Minds.
* Annoy a liberal - Work hard and be happy!
* Arguing facts & truth to libs is like bringing a warm smile to a gun fight.
* Lets win the War on Terror
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DanO
Super Nomad
Posts: 1923
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: Not far from the Pacific
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Stratfor is a serious outfit. They are essentially a private intelligence service, run by ex-intelligence people with worldwide contacts. Their
analysis of the middle east situation is usually dead on. I think their advice in this piece is good -- don't make yourself a target and be aware of
what is going on around you.
\"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.\" -- Frank Zappa
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beercan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 4-3-2005
Location: North of da Bear
Member Is Offline
Mood: happy to be in Baja
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Good to see someone else has time for some serious thought!
| Quote: | by DanO
Stratfor is a serious outfit.
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* libs, all about choice until you choose different
* B. Hussein Obama - an Empty Suit for Empty Minds.
* Annoy a liberal - Work hard and be happy!
* Arguing facts & truth to libs is like bringing a warm smile to a gun fight.
* Lets win the War on Terror
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805gregg
Super Nomad
Posts: 1344
Registered: 5-21-2006
Location: Ojai, Ca
Member Is Offline
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I take all these warnings seriously, any nomads in La Paz, I have a trip planned for June. How is the situation there? The problem is the more people
that stay away, leaves the rest that travel there more at risk. Like surfing at a known sharky break, if there are lots of other legs in the water it
lowers your chance of being the food source.
[Edited on 2-20-2009 by 805gregg]
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Dave
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6005
Registered: 11-5-2002
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It's getting seriouser
| Quote: | Originally posted by 805gregg
I take all these warnings seriously. How is the situation there? |
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CaboRon
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3401
Registered: 3-24-2007
Location: The Valley of the Moon
Member Is Offline
Mood: Peacefull
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| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
| Quote: | Originally posted by CaboRon
| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
FEARMONGERING |
Your head is in the ground ...
If you do not recognize the problem you become a part of the problem.
CaboRon |
Isn't it about time for you to run back to the safety of the good old USA.
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It doesn't matter where I live, I will continue to post the truth ......
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Leo
Senior Nomad
Posts: 518
Registered: 9-23-2004
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: could be better
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Sorry guys, but beercan has Bush written all over it. Must be that watery bud-light. Just his signature tells all.
I know it's not a tea-party withing 50 miles of that wall that's created between Mex and the US, but southern Baja is still paradise compared to most
places north of the WALL.
for 805gregg, what in hell are you going to do in LAP in June? You should be there NOW, when carnaval is on. Just starting tonight.
The grass is always greener....
and so, there is always a better spot in Baja
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805gregg
Super Nomad
Posts: 1344
Registered: 5-21-2006
Location: Ojai, Ca
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| Quote: | | for 805gregg, what in hell are you going to do in LAP in June? You should be there NOW, when carnaval is on. Just starting tonight.
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I come to Baja for warm weather, I like it in Aug best. 105 in LAP last time I was there, didn't bother me at all.
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Leo
Senior Nomad
Posts: 518
Registered: 9-23-2004
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: could be better
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Well Gregg, if you like it that hot, Lap is your place. And believe me, with a low profile, you will be fine.
The grass is always greener....
and so, there is always a better spot in Baja
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HCR
Junior Nomad
Posts: 47
Registered: 3-23-2008
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I always view such reports by seeking to follow the money. How will Stratfor benefit by scaring the crap out of Mex. travelers? See the last
paragraph re the value of "counterintelligence." This is one of Stratfor's sales pieces.
Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15940
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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everyone who stays home just leaves more waves for "us," right greg?
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N2Baja
Nomad
Posts: 147
Registered: 2-12-2004
Location: San Diego
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Considering that there are (at least) three active 'missing persons' posts on the board right now, I think this is very timely information and I thank
Beercan for posting it.
More so now than ever before, everyone needs to be alert and aware of what's going on around them.
Forget about the danger and think of the fun.
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bajadave1
Nomad
Posts: 225
Registered: 7-20-2004
Location: Los Barriles, BCS
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Missing or just Hiding?
Why are these 3 "missing" I would think "escaping" is just as likely.
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