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k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
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| Quote: | Originally posted by arrowhead
In five or six years, Mexico will no longer be exporting oil, which is its largest source of foreign income. |
Which also is bad news for the US. Mexico is its 3rd largest supplier of crude:
The top sources of US crude oil imports for May were Canada (1.476 million barrels per day), Venezuela (1.228 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.088
million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (0.996 million barrels per day), and Nigeria (0.552 million barrels per day).
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publicatio...
What you say may be true only if they don't find more.
Do you think they are looking?
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JESSE
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The oil is there, but you need money to get it out, wich Pemex does not have. The days of no foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry are almost
over.
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BajaGringo
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Location: La Chorera
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Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by arrowhead
The US has never defaulted.
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Yet.
In the current scenario of skyrocketing national debt, falling retail sales and housing values, increased unemployment and foreclosures, growing trade imbalance, diminishing tax revenue and inability to seriously compete in the global economy
I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese
that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.
Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...
[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo]
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Bajahowodd
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Posts: 9274
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Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
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Mexico will turn a very important corner when they get over the nationalized oil thing. People old enough remember when it was an open market. I
believe that Jesse is correct that there is plenty of crude available to Mexico, but they just need to bite the bullet and partner with foreign,
private interests.
As for defaulting....Never going to happen. It will be a painful experience, but the dollar is going to face major devaluation. It has happened in the
past. Remember the oil crisis in the 70's. Anyone can look up comparisons about what a dollar is worth today versus what it was worth in 1965. What
kept the US afloat was that most of the major world currencies tanked in tandem.
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BajaGringo
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And if the other major currencies tank in tandem how does that help that the country compete in a global economy? I see it as a wash...
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
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Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
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Quid pro quo.
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arrowhead
Banned
Posts: 912
Registered: 5-5-2009
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| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
What you say may be true only if they don't find more.
Do you think they are looking? |
No, it is true even if they find more. The lead time to bring a discovered oil field into production is so long that even if they hit the mother of
all oil deposits, they would still be unable to export oil over and above their domestic consumption in about 6 years. It's a done deal.
And yes they are looking, the problem is all the low-hanging fruit has been picked. They need to drill deep wells and don't have the technology.
Mexico's constitution prevents it from partnering up with countries with the technology.
No soy por ni contra apatía.
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arrowhead
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese
that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.
Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...
[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo] |
You have drifted off topic. You started out by saying that Mexico was in a better position than the US in the current economy. Mexico is the US's
handmaiden. 80% of Mexico's foreign trade is with the US. On the other hand, the US has a very diversified economy. So how can Mexico be in a better
position?
Think of it like the current example of GM's bankruptcy. Pretend the US is GM and Mexico is the little company that only makes one product -- fuel
injection ports -- which it sells only to GM. Who is in a better position? Especially when you consider that GM is going to make more and more cars
that are electric powered, not with fuel injected internal combustion engines.
No soy por ni contra apatía.
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
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Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
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I think you need to go back and reread my post. That is not what I said. I merely said that I had some hope for Mexico only because they aren't
carrying trillions and trillions of dollars in debt. You picked that up and ran with it...
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
And if the other major currencies tank in tandem how does that help that the country compete in a global economy? I see it as a wash...
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Mexico is in a far different scenario than the more developed countries such as the USA. All Nations are now suffering the global banker's cabal
combined with changes in global economy and industry such as the loss of North American manufacturing of goods, computer hardware and related computer
software industry.
Mexico does not have such a large debtor population owned by by Goldman Sachs like the USA, and Mexico is far more self sufficient backed by a population of people who are willing to work hard every day and adapt to economic changes.
The scenario is seemingly complex and well orchestrated, yet simplistic with an every-changing distracting and attention grabbing false travesty hyped
by the controlled mass media, with much more fallout ahead as the number of defaulted home loans increases and consumer credit card default becoming an increasingly serious economic issue.
These are simplistic descriptions, though it isn't hard to see the globalists plan, the execution, nor to predict where this is going. This is not a
simple economic blip, this is a worldwide economic assault that has already depleted 24 trillion from the US population under the guise of the banker's bailout.
Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, due to the orchestrated high mortgage debt averaging
in the hundreds of thousands and increasingly high costs of US budget debt which now exceeds 400,000 per person, the National Budget interest alone
can not be sustained on the budget deficit of 10 trillion, nor individual consumer debt due to massive job loss estimated at 10-30% nationwide.
The real question is whether Mexicans can avoid being trapped by similar consumer debt ploys and avoid the credit crunch by avoiding credit altogether
and whether Mexicans can adapt to rapid changes, such as loss of state oil income and address required increases in infrastructure of sewer, roads,
electrical and continued progress health and education.
The one thing that Mexico does have is a population of ever optimistic people who are not so quickly led by mass media nonsense. Optimism may be among
the most important resources required of communities today. Mexico has an increasingly intelligent population who know how to run efficient and
flexible businesses.
Mexico too is under attack where they are weak, for example, in the form of their unfailing support for nationalistic propaganda, such as the false
pandemic of flu, which never existed as a national threat but may become a threat in the form of dangerous vaccines and propaganda such as strong Nationalistic and anti-foreigner attitude which is debilitating to the community economy, infrastructure
and tourism.
These rapid economic changes make Baja a great place to visit for anyone who can get there with less income over the winter which in turn makes the
local Baja economy more self-sufficient than cities in North America which have higher costs to survive with heating, vehicle costs and home costs.
What remains to be seen, is whether or not the general population can gel together and see the increasingly diverse neighbors as a support network, a
market for creating localized economies which increase the strength of Baja's people.
To address the specifics, there are many known areas of oil yet to be tapped and increasing technology that can be used to find oil. There is far too much misinformation in regard to this resource than
fact.
Mexico is already aware and addressing issues associated with modernization such as reducing use of plastics bags, improving waste water use,
organizing garbage dumps and improving infrastructure of roads and government facilities.
What is critical is organizing within communities to see the commonalities of the constituents, to see the benefits of communicating together and
working together to create local goods and food markets and reduce dependency on global products and plastic consumer crap.
The answers are more simple than they appear and Mexico is more well suited to adapt to changes. The question is whether Mexico's well positioned
circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see
themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see
the people as the driving force of a Nation as opposed to powerful global monopolies and banking frauds.
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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| Quote: | Originally posted by arrowhead
| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaGringo
I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese
that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.
Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...
[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo] |
You have drifted off topic. You started out by saying that Mexico was in a better position than the US in the current economy. Mexico is the US's
handmaiden. 80% of Mexico's foreign trade is with the US. On the other hand, the US has a very diversified economy. So how can Mexico be in a better
position?
Think of it like the current example of GM's bankruptcy. Pretend the US is GM and Mexico is the little company that only makes one product -- fuel
injection ports -- which it sells only to GM. Who is in a better position? Especially when you consider that GM is going to make more and more cars
that are electric powered, not with fuel injected internal combustion engines. |
Reading the news recently, note the increasing number of articles touting US manufacturing moving to Mexico for example this story about Panasonic, or this story about Ford, or this one about aircraft.
[Edited on 8-24-2009 by gnukid]
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wilderone
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3880
Registered: 2-9-2004
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"Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, ..."
[and]
"The question is whether Mexico's well positioned circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens
from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people
who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see the people as the driving force of a Nation"
Therein lies the dichotomy. The Americas ARE inter-dependent (NAFTA, maquilladores, oil, PPP, shipping ports, tourism), and when the US falters, so
will Mexico. It is a fact that Mexico's GNP is largely dependent on cash remittances from the US and tourism. Mexican banks are now feeling the
affects of a decreased flow of those funds and diminished tourism. Swine flu effect would be transitory - but the lack of discretionary funds for a
good time across the border will not see relief any time soon. In the meantime, businesses will close. Mexico is now experiencing pressure from
returning emigrants and an influx of Central American immigrants - what is the effect of this unprecedented phenomenon? And Mexico is uniquely
crippled by a drug war of huge proportions, albeit the USA's involvement within its borders suffers as well. The Mexican civil war with the drug
cartels will erode good communities, tax federal budgets and available manpower, thus preventing modern, 21st century growth in some regions. The
results of many years of escalating violence and corruption remain to be seen. Mexico's charms have disintegrated in its attempt to become like a
Miami, or in its shameful treatment of its indigenous in the entire eastern region of the country - their enduring poverty does not reflect well on a
government whose role extends to all its citizens. Mexico's allegiance to human rights, liberty and justice which, in turn, will foster a climate
for its self-sufficient citizenry to better themselves, has a long way to go.
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arrowhead
Banned
Posts: 912
Registered: 5-5-2009
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| Quote: | Originally posted by gnukid
Reading the news recently, note the increasing number of articles touting US manufacturing moving to Mexico... |
Selectively reading the news is not the same as researching and understanding the facts on the ground. Now for a dose of reality:
No soy por ni contra apatía.
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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| Quote: | Originally posted by wilderone
"Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, ..."
[and]
"The question is whether Mexico's well positioned circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens
from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people
who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see the people as the driving force of a Nation"
Therein lies the dichotomy. The Americas ARE inter-dependent (NAFTA, maquilladores, oil, PPP, shipping ports, tourism), and when the US falters, so
will Mexico. It is a fact that Mexico's GNP is largely dependent on cash remittances from the US and tourism. Mexican banks are now feeling the
affects of a decreased flow of those funds and diminished tourism. Swine flu effect would be transitory - but the lack of discretionary funds for a
good time across the border will not see relief any time soon. In the meantime, businesses will close. Mexico is now experiencing pressure from
returning emigrants and an influx of Central American immigrants - what is the effect of this unprecedented phenomenon? And Mexico is uniquely
crippled by a drug war of huge proportions, albeit the USA's involvement within its borders suffers as well. The Mexican civil war with the drug
cartels will erode good communities, tax federal budgets and available manpower, thus preventing modern, 21st century growth in some regions. The
results of many years of escalating violence and corruption remain to be seen. Mexico's charms have disintegrated in its attempt to become like a
Miami, or in its shameful treatment of its indigenous in the entire eastern region of the country - their enduring poverty does not reflect well on a
government whose role extends to all its citizens. Mexico's allegiance to human rights, liberty and justice which, in turn, will foster a climate
for its self-sufficient citizenry to better themselves, has a long way to go. |
Here are two scenarios to consider:
1) A US American lives in LA and loses his/her job and can not pay mortgage or gas or buy groceries. In a matter of an instant the person is starving
with no ability to travel or sustain themselves while increasing debt, legal issues, and presumably incurring stress and resulting health problems.
2) A Mexican who lives in rural Baja loses his/her job. They have no mortgage nor need for a car, they have a home and family nearby, they can rely on
each other for support, they can farm, fish, build things with natural resources of stone and carizo and palms, and they can build a sustaining
existence without incurring more debt or relying on social welfare.
Now, its not much help to compare these scenarios except it helps to understand the orchestrated problem with the USA financial gaming system of which
few benefit and many suffer while the Mexican system does not have these weaknesses it is quite difficult in Mexico to grow a business beyond the
simplest form due to high costs, debilitating corruption and labor laws.
The Mexican Drug cartels are too profitable to go away easily. Mexico's economy is based on the diminishing Oil, US remittances and the drug cartel
profits. Oil is almost gone, remittances are nearly gone and Drug profits remain. However these changing circumstances present opportunity for new
products.
In regard to indigenous peoples, they have been oppressed and discriminated against however their constitution is strong and they are as a whole
industrious, it is this character which may be the key to fomenting new businesses, based on skills such as handwork, textiles, food, etc...
US-Mexican tariffs hurt Mexico greatly making exports expensive to the USA. If the USA would reduce tariffs and encourage and allow local goods to be
sold across the border it would benefit both countries and allow manufacturing to return to the USA and Mexico and allow our countries the opportunity
to compete with other nations and make a comeback.
Truly the circumstances which negatively affect both of us are largely superficial and created by the US Administration in an apparent orchestrated
attempt to hurt the people, starve the populations and create a region of conflict and depression which allows the wealthy to aggregate land and
business resources further creating monopolistic corporations and greater separation of poor versus wealthy.
There is a solution, simply do not participate in the global cabal, work with your local community to foment businesses, markets, reduce costs, taxes
and tariffs, speak out against the cabal and work for healthy, supportive and divers local communities. The solution is a mindset and starts by
turning off the Television programming you to believe you are too weak or incapable of local empowerment.
Global Corporatism is not your friend-while your neighbor regardless of your differences is someone you need to work with and depend upon. Consider
making a conscience to purchase local products.
Human rights begin with each person, it is possible to refuse to accept poor treatment of people by Government sponsored militias and demand respect
for Human rights. In fact to fail to do so is a human failure. To fail to speak out against US renditions and torture and demand respect for civil
rights is a serious step toward acceptance of broad loss of human rights.
Populations are not a threat to the world, while the out of control military industrial complex is a threat to populations. Its quite a shock to know
that the USA is committing genocide in Iraq while few even speak of the issue, indiscriminate use of drones to attack and kill innocents in areas such
as Pakistan, remove the personal aspects of war that require a man to personally kill another and violent TV, movies and video games condition all of
us that its ok to kill with computers.
This situation is easily changed by simply changing your mindset, toward loving and accepting your friends and neighbors, go outside and smile,
participate in community events and industry and work together toward improving your community and refuse to support or participate in the Global
Cabal.
Baja and the indigenous people have much to teach us about these solutions, working and living together which is a requirement to our survival.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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Mood: undecided
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Guess this all means that Mexico's oil resources will be drying-up sooner than expected. All those Pemex stations will turn into taco stands and
burros will be the transportation of choice. Nothing like a good dose of gloom
and doom to get you your sweat glands to kick in.
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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I believe it was Presidente Fox who said Baja's greatest resource is is vast coastline. The Pacific ocean and the Sea of Cortez provide food, beauty
and positive energy that can help support the populations regardless of the doom and gloom. Supplement seafood with spirulina, algae, seaweed and you
have a complete and sustaining diet. Baja is fine, the people simply need to transport their goods between regions which is why they call them Baja
Nomads!
The economy can adjust to create new goods and markets if allowed to do so. The remaining issue/problem of the drug cartels is largely based on a
artificial mindset that either you need to buy drugs or that you need to fight drugs, both are complete BS. The more that you educate the population
that neither are required, that alternatives exist, the more that we free ourselves of this massive burden.
Funny how a good cup of tea and a nice fresh Baja meal make this all more clear.
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OLIGUACOMOLE
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 4-16-2009
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| Quote: | Originally posted by lencho
| Quote: | Originally posted by JESSE
4.-OPEN UP PEMEX AND CFE. Mexico is only the second nation in the world that does not allow private investment in oil or electricity..
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What's your gripe with CFE? Personally, I think they're doing a great job. Power is available (and cheap, for efficient consumers).
I especially appreciate them during hurricane season, when those cabrones are out on the poles restoring power almost before the horizontal blowing
rain has moved out of the area...
--Larry |
Do you know that if you work for CFE you get free electricity? Do you know when you retire you get free electricity for life?
If you would like to know who works for CFE notice the houses that are all lit up with lights at Christmas! Right nest to the others that are trying
to pay their electric bill.
With the union CFE is one of the most secure jobs one can have in Mexico.
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 65291
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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| Quote: | Originally posted by gnukid
I believe it was Presidente Fox who said Baja's greatest resource is is vast coastline. The Pacific ocean and the Sea of Cortez provide food, beauty
and positive energy that can help support the populations regardless of the doom and gloom. Supplement seafood with spirulina, algae, seaweed and you
have a complete and sustaining diet. Baja is fine, the people simply need to transport their goods between regions which is why they call them Baja
Nomads!
The economy can adjust to create new goods and markets if allowed to do so. The remaining issue/problem of the drug cartels is largely based on a
artificial mindset that either you need to buy drugs or that you need to fight drugs, both are complete BS. The more that you educate the population
that neither are required, that alternatives exist, the more that we free ourselves of this massive burden.
Funny how a good cup of tea and a nice fresh Baja meal make this all more clear. |
THIS IS one of the most intelligent posts I have seen!
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805gregg
Super Nomad
Posts: 1344
Registered: 5-21-2006
Location: Ojai, Ca
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Nobody seems to notice that Mexicos largest source of income is money sent south by Mexicans in the US. If the US economy goes down so does Mexicos
income.
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Eugenio
Nomad
Posts: 206
Registered: 4-23-2008
Location: Navojoa, Son.
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I've been waiting for Mexico to get it's act together for over 40 years. There have been hundreds articles like this over the years. They all make
it seem like Mexico is "poised" to make advances in it's economy/quality of life that will benefit it's people - but things never seem to pan out.
I've become convinced that the only way to judge things in Mexico is to look at the past and present.
And don't believe anybody's eyes except your own.
It is what it is. (same probably goes for any country)
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