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surebought
Junior Nomad
Posts: 84
Registered: 11-30-2009
Location: Ensenada
Member Is Offline
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Anyone optimistic about next year business wise in Baja.
I have heard all the negatives. The Toll Road is too expensive. The Forclosures haven't even hit the hardest yet as people in the US continue to
lose their jobs. More Troops into Afganistan will further weaken the economy(Something about Guns and Butter economic theories and not raising
Taxes.) The continued Drug war in Tijuana. Mexico used to be cheap. I hear it all the time. I am glad I am not in the Restaurant or Real Estate
Business. But the nomads seem to have different sort of take on everything and I was hoping to hear a few theories about things maybe turning
positive. 2009 was my worst year ever in Business in Mexico. I know there is a strong possibility that I am in for more of the same. I know of at
least ten stores on the tourist Street of Ensenada that are closing at the end of December. I really have to decide whether I should be one of them
and close too. Is there anybody out there with anything positive to say about next year?
In a while the smile on my face turned to plaster.
Stick around while the clown who is sick, does the trick of disaster. Neil Young from Mr Soul.
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Don Alley
Super Nomad
Posts: 1997
Registered: 12-4-2003
Location: Loreto
Member Is Offline
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Loreto: It's A Boom Town?!
Big new hotel just opened. New resort will open next fall. Work has just begun on a new central plaza and the main tourist avenue is being redone.
FONATUR has a big development underway just south of Colonia Zaragosa, including a new section of Malecon. Yesterday they had a pile of new
outboards-Mercs, Yamahas and Hondas-at the marina for local pangeros. Lots of big new SUVs, including Escalades, Navigators and Hummers are cruising
the streets.
Somebody must be optimistic.
Oh, and the sound truck is driving through town announcing a big discount for those who pay their property tax early, to "help the municipality's
economy."
Seriously, we were oversold and overhyped here, but there is still potential for modest economic activity befitting a small town. Tourism in BCS is
not as dependent in bargain prices, and so far crime and drugs are not likely to be an issue with visitors. The best things that could happen are for
airlines to provide more affordable flights, for people to keep the beaches and mountains accessible to the public, and to avoid massive big scale
projects that shut off access and bring the kind of big city problems that have hurt tourism up north.
My guess is that by the end of 2010, we'll have a couple more flights a week into Loreto and a slightly improved tourism economy, but it will take
several years of modest improvement to support the current overbuilt number of tourism related businesses we have.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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Perhaps the businesses on Lopez Mateos should forget catering to a thinning tourist consumer base and direct their marketing towards the increasing
local economy. Look at WalMart and the other big stores on HWY 1. They're are buzzing with patrons. There's money to be made in Ensenada without
hoping for a returning tourism industry. It's gone and probably won't be returning any time soon.
One thing that will work against any growth of business in that area is the lack of parking. The city planners have dug their own grave on this
issue.
David....You told me an interesting story about a good portion of your clientele. Interesting from a cultural, as well as business standpoint. If
you're so inclined, I'll let you tell it.
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arrowhead
Banned
Posts: 912
Registered: 5-5-2009
Member Is Offline
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2010 will be just as bad as 2009, if not worse. This goes for the US and Mexico, whose economies are intertwined. The US has been printing and
spending money it doesn't have for about a year now and the dollar is devaluing. At some point in 2010, the Federal Reserve will have to raise
interest rates to slow inflation. This will put the kaboosh on whatever weak growth all that spending started (which was not much). Also, the worst of
the real estate foreclosures has yet to hit.
No soy por ni contra apatía.
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by arrowhead
2010 will be just as bad as 2009, if not worse. This goes for the US and Mexico, whose economies are intertwined. The US has been printing and
spending money it doesn't have for about a year now and the dollar is devaluing. At some point in 2010, the Federal Reserve will have to raise
interest rates to slow inflation. This will put the kaboosh on whatever weak growth all that spending started (which was not much). Also, the worst of
the real estate foreclosures has yet to hit. |
They have been printing and spending money they didn't have
for about a hundred years.
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k-rico
Super Nomad
Posts: 2079
Registered: 7-10-2008
Location: Playas de Tijuana
Member Is Offline
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Plus the added delays at the border, especially the new southbound delays, which I think will be increasing, and tougher northbound ID requirements
have/will further diminish the casual day trips to Ensenada.
I've recently moved my PO Box to San Ysidro so I can walk across to get mail and no longer shop on a regular basis in San Diego because of the
southbound wait. A TJ radio station reported a 3 hour wait southbound the day after Thanksgiving in the afternoon. Shoppers and workers.
DENNIS is right, catering to locals is the way to go. That business model seems to be working. Sears just opened a new store in TJ and that company
knows a thing or two about retailing.
[Edited on 12-2-2009 by k-rico]
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fdt
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4059
Registered: 9-7-2003
Location: Tijuana, Baja California
Member Is Offline
Mood: Yeah, what if it all goes right
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I am more than confident that 2010 will be a year of economic growth. We do need to reinvent ourselves, the world has changed.
A well informed Baja California traveler is a smart Baja California traveler!
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Our business has been steadily improving over the last month. We can only hope that this trend will continue.
Most of the people that I have talked to here are optimistic about this season. It would be hard for it to be worse than this summer so the only way
is up!
Now if we could just get that darned Almanac in stock, we would be doing much better.
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BajaGringo
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3922
Registered: 8-24-2006
Location: La Chorera
Member Is Offline
Mood: Let's have a BBQ!
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And it continues to evolve my friend. I sense that we have even more changes in store for 2010. My crystal ball tells me so...
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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I believe that the US economy is not the overriding factor against better times in Baja. After all, Outside of the major resorts, Mexico does offer
great value for the casual traveler. I just happened to notice that current airfare to Kauai is almost $500 round trip.
I think the drug crime issue looms as the biggest impediment to tourism growth in Northern Baja. Follow that with the increased hassle factor crossing
the border both ways. I've mentioned before that US citizens have a surprisingly low rate of passport ownership. That really cuts into the
extemporaneous trips for c-cktails and dinner.
Down South, they are more insulated. First, places such as Los Cabos and La Paz are basically off the radar when it comes to the crime issue. Second,
mostly in the Los Cabos area, time shares drive the tourism. An awful lot of folks have invested their money and feel compelled to get some form of
return on that investment. So they go there for that week or two.
As for reinventing downtown Ensenada, I think that train already left the station. The economic center of gravity for locals shifted out to the big
box stores on the highway. Wide assortment of merchandise, competitive prices and tons of free parking. Downtown's bet shot is to advertise hotel and
restaurant packages, stage festivals Etc.
And BTW, Sears Mexico is one of Sr. Slim's holdings.
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Dave
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6005
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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David...surebought
Please check your U2U.
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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Cabo, just like Vegas, has seen its best and will now settle into something more value oriented.
Tijuana, will continue its bad economy due to the crime element.
Loreto, same as always.
La Paz, will be one of the few cities in Mexico with decent growth.
Mulege, bad bad bad.
Rosarito, a little improvement.
Ensenada, a little improvement as well.
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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Rosarito has more closed storefronts than ever. The number of for-sale and for-rent signs has never been higher. Even one of the huge full-block
spring break nightclubs has recently closed- with ugly plywood on all the doors and windows. I have seen my favorite local hardware store go belly-up
because of the new Home Depot. As in the USA, a blighted neighborhood just can't attract new business or customers.
Even if you can find a product for the locals market, the biggest challenge I see is in cash handling. I can't figure out a safe way to get the cash
from the cash register to the bank. And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently.
It may get better- but not soon, and never in December. Every crook is busy stealing what they can so their kids can have something for Christmas
here.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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Isn't that What They Are there For?
And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajahowodd
And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently. |
I just went to Smart and Final, Ens, and they held me up. Where do they come off charging nine bucks for a jar of Skippy PB. That's 50% over US.
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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That's kinda funny. Smart and Final Mexico is a joint venture with Calimax. What do they charge for PB at your store on the Bufadora turnoff?
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
Member Is Offline
Mood: Skeptical
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I wish I could offer some optimism, David, but my Baja perspective is sunk in Mulege.  Also, as I said in another string, and in Off Topic, I think last night Obama just sank the U.S. into an economic downward spiral from which we
will probably not recover in our lifetimes.
Regarding pharmaceuticals, I now get mine...all generic, from India by way of Canada. I have dropped Medicare Part D. My insurance carrier has doubled
the premiums in the three years of the plan's existence. The cost of my copays have risen beyond reason too. That plan was an AARP/Republican/Bush
boondoggle...a giveaway to the insurance/big pharma industries and another reason to warrant a single payer, public option included in Healthcare
Reform. I have also dropped my membership in AARP too. They are insurance pimps.
Medicare has been great! But I have a Medigap (insurance) through AARP to cover the 20% that Medicare doesn't cover. They have raised their premiums
to $160.00 per month for me. The insurance and pharmaceutical companies have demonstrated their greed. That is what they do!
Is Mexico subject to U.S. drug patent law? Do you have access to an international generic source in order to do an end-around Big Pharma gouges? If
there is a way you can do this, I think you would certainly increase your market.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajahowodd
That's kinda funny. Smart and Final Mexico is a joint venture with Calimax. What do they charge for PB at your store on the Bufadora turnoff?
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I don't really know. I try to not pay a lot of attention to prices..if I want it, I buy it unless the red flags come up like they did at S+F. The
way I look at it, for every item on my time-worn shopping list that becomes available here, It's one less item I have to drag down from the states.
Actually, I don't think they have Skippys at that Calimax. Costco does and it's a lot more reasonable than S+F.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by toneart
I have also dropped my membership in AARP too. They are insurance pimps.
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Insurance and investments. That's all they do. They have the older generation believing they're some kind of caring old-folks advocates...best
friends in need and all that crapola.
Total nonsense.
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Martyman
Super Nomad
Posts: 1904
Registered: 9-10-2004
Member Is Offline
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yeah, what is with the parking in Ensenada? All I want is some good skyrockets, ATM action, a fishing licence and a decent cup a joe, but all the
parking spot are gone so... i keep going.
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