landyacht318
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GFS and Nogaps weather models
The following links are worthy of a bookmarking. The GFS model shows another possible drenching on Tuesday.
NoGaps weather model
GFS weather model
They go out to a 180 hour forecast, and are darn accurate to about 48 hours.
Hope these are of use. If anyone else has similar or better links, please share.
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Bajahowodd
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Drenching might be overstatement. Everything I've read and heard indicates that what's upcoming will be nowhere near as powerful as what we just
experienced. I'm hoping they're right.
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landyacht318
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I hope it is an overstatement. The GFS model having the dark green and light blue is similar to what it was predicting last week, but forecast to be
only one event of shorer duration versus 4 events over 5 days of last week.
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fishbuck
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If the GFS is right it looks like another fairly big storm. Aimed right at SoCal and Baja Norte
"A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for." J. A. Shedd.
A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it. – Albert Einstein
"Life's a Beach... and then you Fly!" Fishbuck
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Gypsy Jan
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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The Two Links Appear to Be Identical
Please help out a confused viewer and explain the difference between the two (pretend that you are talking to a child).
Thanks, the links are awesome and I say that in the true meaning of the word.
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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Gypsy Jan
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Posts: 4275
Registered: 1-27-2004
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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More Weather Commentary
"The jet stream that is going to hit Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded on this planet before, over 230 mph. The jet is at
an extremely unusually low altitude, not 30,000 to 60,000 feet, but coming as low as 8,000 feet. This jet will be traveling over the unusually warm El
Nino waters of the eastern pacific, and will be carrying freakish amounts of energy and moisture. A huge series of storms is going to slam into Los
Angeles and the surrounding areas just one after another for day after day for up to two weeks.
The initial storms will be very cold, with snow levels as low as 3,000 feet. Heavy rain and snow will be hitting California from San Diego to Eureka.
Next week, the driest places will see at least 3 inches of rain, the Los Angeles basin and northern parts of the county andVentura will see 6 to 10
inches. The wettest areas and cells within the system will hit with up to 20 inches of rain. Snowfall in the Sierras will be measured in the TENS of
feet. Powerful winds will be associated with this storm--like a powerful Santa Ana but blowing in the opposite direction, west to east. Gusts up to 80
mph are forecast. But it gets worse. For the first time that I'm aware of, ALL of the various models are in agreement about the second week of the
storm. Normally, beyond a week, the models diverge. But due to the extreme strength of the weather producing factors, this time all of the models
produce the same results for the 8-14 day period. For the week of the 24th, we will be hit with a powerful and WARM series of storms, as strong as
any we've seen. This heavy warm rainfall will fall onto the newly laid snowpack and what will be totally saturated ground, especially in the burn
areas of LA and will produce tremendous melting and runoff, and the potential for record flooding. Due to the low altitude of the jet stream, 200+
mph winds will slam directly into the Sierras, producing tornado strength winds over a 200 mile wide front. DON'T head to Mammoth for skiing when you
hear about the huge snow fall in the first week. A friend of Scott's is a Navy weather forecaster and he told Scott that the military is moving
assets east out of the way ahead of this storm. Planes and helicopters are migrating out of the coastal bases and into the interior bases of Arizona
and Nevada. They're taking this very seriously. This may sound alarmist, but websites I check related to weather modeling are using the word
"Biblical" for this system."
[Edited on 1-24-2010 by Gypsy Jan]
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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landyacht318
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Registered: 7-28-2007
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The links are computer model forecasts. The more similar they are, the higher likelyhood that they are right. They start out very similar but
diverge as the hours and days play out. To see a difference between the two, look at Tuesday 18:00 on the Nogaps, then Tuesday 18:00 on the GFS
model . You will then notice a difference.
The GFS has a pretty potent storm over the area, the Nogaps disagrees.
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Gypsy Jan
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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Thanks For the Info
Does anyone have a biblical connection to Noah?
Or a lifeline?
[Edited on 1-24-2010 by Gypsy Jan]
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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last week a site i use said the same of the pineapple express. this week it seems the forecasts were just that, educated guesses. we need to dry out!
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BooJumMan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 919
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: San Diego
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Gypsy Jan, have a link to the quote above? Interested to learn more.
Also, the 10 day forecast only lists 1 day of rain, and thats not until Feb 1st.
[Edited on 1-24-2010 by BooJumMan]
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landyacht318
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The NoGaps still says the rain if any will stay north of the border on Wednesday.
The GFS is not quite so optimistic.
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desertcpl
Super Nomad
Posts: 2405
Registered: 10-26-2008
Location: yuma,az
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here is one to read
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9649421
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
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Mood: Skeptical
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Gypsy Jan
"The jet stream that is going to hit Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded on this planet before, over 230 mph. The jet is at
an extremely unusually low altitude, not 30,000 to 60,000 feet, but coming as low as 8,000 feet. This jet will be traveling over the unusually warm El
Nino waters of the eastern pacific, and will be carrying freakish amounts of energy and moisture. A huge series of storms is going to slam into Los
Angeles and the surrounding areas just one after another for day after day for up to two weeks.
The initial storms will be very cold, with snow levels as low as 3,000 feet. Heavy rain and snow will be hitting California from San Diego to Eureka.
Next week, the driest places will see at least 3 inches of rain, the Los Angeles basin and northern parts of the county andVentura will see 6 to 10
inches. The wettest areas and cells within the system will hit with up to 20 inches of rain. Snowfall in the Sierras will be measured in the TENS of
feet. Powerful winds will be associated with this storm--like a powerful Santa Ana but blowing in the opposite direction, west to east. Gusts up to 80
mph are forecast. But it gets worse. For the first time that I'm aware of, ALL of the various models are in agreement about the second week of the
storm. Normally, beyond a week, the models diverge. But due to the extreme strength of the weather producing factors, this time all of the models
produce the same results for the 8-14 day period. For the week of the 24th, we will be hit with a powerful and WARM series of storms, as strong as
any we've seen. This heavy warm rainfall will fall onto the newly laid snowpack and what will be totally saturated ground, especially in the burn
areas of LA and will produce tremendous melting and runoff, and the potential for record flooding. Due to the low altitude of the jet stream, 200+
mph winds will slam directly into the Sierras, producing tornado strength winds over a 200 mile wide front. DON'T head to Mammoth for skiing when you
hear about the huge snow fall in the first week. A friend of Scott's is a Navy weather forecaster and he told Scott that the military is moving
assets east out of the way ahead of this storm. Planes and helicopters are migrating out of the coastal bases and into the interior bases of Arizona
and Nevada. They're taking this very seriously. This may sound alarmist, but websites I check related to weather modeling are using the word
"Biblical" for this system."
[Edited on 1-24-2010 by Gypsy Jan] |
Jan,
What is your source for this forecast? That's the scariest forecast I have ever seen. I'm trying to decide whether to stay home, go to Mulege or just
sit in my boat and wait for the Prophesy to materialize. 
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desertcpl
Super Nomad
Posts: 2405
Registered: 10-26-2008
Location: yuma,az
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Google
frankenstrom
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bajajazz
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Location: La Paz, BCS, Mexico
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Prophesy
Hey, Tony,
If you get Raptured up can I have your boat?
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
Member Is Offline
Mood: Skeptical
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajajazz
Hey, Tony,
If you get Raptured up can I have your boat? |
Well sure! I can always wait in my bathtub. 
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landyacht318
Nomad
Posts: 247
Registered: 7-28-2007
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I must apologize for having not noticed that the clickys that I recommended be bookmarked by those interested in computer forcast models do not update
frequently.
Today is Thursday, and the Nogaps model has not been updated since Monday. Unacceptable. The GFS model is now over 24 hours old as well.
Here is a link to a GFS model that appears to update 4 times a day from Noaa. It is not quite as clear as the UW links, and is a Mercator map which
removes the curvature of the earth.
It is claiming a rain event for S. Cal and Baja Norte on the day before Superbowl Sunday. It will be interesting to see the accuracy of a 10 day
computer model forecast.
Animated GFS model from NOAA
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