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Bajahowodd
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Interesting point, arrowhead. In both 2009 and 2010 reported deaths in February were approximately 1/2 the number reported in January. However,
comparing the two years, reported deaths are actually higher in 2010. So, I guess one of your points is that Jesse could well have made a similar
observation at this time last year.
That said, is it still not possible what with all the arrests that have been made recently, there could be a little cause for optimism?
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Woooosh
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They really do need the tourism industry to rebound to lead any local economic recovery. Make the tourist corridor and downtown TJ safe first, get
some good PR out of it, and then work east through the city. The Chinese are opening new factories in TJ.
I don't think the murder rate is the most important number. The murder of 100 narco-idiots a month doesn't impact everyones quality of life. What
does impact them is the increase in store robberies, money schemes, and home invasions and burglaries. These impact everyone's quality of life all
across town, every day. Those crimes are on the increase and are economic, not drug-cartel- driven. JMHO though. Having a job to feed your family is
a huge crime deterrent.
[Edited on 3-4-2010 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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805gregg
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The Mexican gov, making deals with the drug cartels is good news?
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by 805gregg
The Mexican gov, making deals with the drug cartels is good news? |
Yeah, for now- if it's all they have to work with. Mexico wasn't ready for this fight and they only found that out after it started. Nothing has
worked-out the past few years:
Front line: They suspended/fired hundreds of corrupt TJ cops who were replaced by corrupt military. TJ removed a state of the art security system not
because it didn't work (12,000 detentions the first year), but because it worked too well- and the Military ran the cameras out of C4. TJ wasn't
ready for that much honesty on film yet. The best solution to stop the infighting was simply to let the cameras go away- in the middle of the narco
battle.
Prosecution: The judicial system is still years away from being effective enough to handle the depth of the problem. Whenever justice is determined
behind closed doors by one person- corruption can play a role. Unless extradited to the USA- criminals can and do buy their way out of everything-
including jail.
Economics short term: The combination of real crime, swine flu, economic downturn, long border waits, new passport rules, and bad PR have virtually
killed the local tourist-based economy. There are more closed tourist business than profitable ones right now. This causes the loss of jobs,
increased street crimes and further reduced retail consumer spending for the local economy. Real estate sales are almost non existent.
Social impact: In addition to the loss of real and economic security- the short term factors are creating a culture shift backwards. People who
created menus, built our houses, made custom furniture and created unique works of art are now going out of business completely. Not slowing down-
going away. Once these skills are lost, and not passed down to the next generation- they are gone. Colleges are dropping classes as more students
have to drop out of school. It's a death spiral and it's happening now.
Yes, the first choice isn't to make peace with the cartels. But Mexico can't realistically win this war yet. Give it six or seven more years to get
the police , military, prosecution and judicial systems ready- they go at it again. If TJ/Rosarito can't catch an break and get back in the economic
game soon, the permanent social consequences will be worse than the current economic ones. What's the point of fighting a "war" to the point of
killing everything? JMHO
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
| Quote: | Originally posted by 805gregg
The Mexican gov, making deals with the drug cartels is good news? |
Yeah, for now- if it's all they have to work with. |
Why would it get any better later? Your suggestion is surrender.
War is hell, Woooosh. Servitude to a drug cartel is worse.
I'm appaled by your, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" solution. It's morally disgusting.
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Iflyfish
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Thanks for starting this very important thread Jesse. You will soon be meeting with my good friends Jerry and Germaine.
We all hope and pray for a cessation of the senseless carnage. I have posted at length on the subject of prohibition and will not comment more on that
subject.
Cooptation and incorporation is a traditional method of dispute resolution in Mexico. If you study the last 100 years of Mexican history you will find
examples of how a group of people take a stand with the government and the government names the leaders to head committees, study the problem, head
bureaus devoted to addressing the problem etc. and pay them and their decedents to hold these government positions. I rather admire the style; though
have some problem with the substance. I think it is called Pragmatism. Henry Kissinger, one of the better historians of compromise said that the
hardest people to deal with in foreign policy are the “true believer”. There is no compromise to these people and therefore one engages in a zero/sum
game with them. If all policy was based upon morality we would all be living in a theocracy.
Some form of rapprochement was established in the Copper Canyon, one of the most dangerous places on earth, in my opinion, that allowed for a safe
corridor down the canyon for the train and vehicular traffic on the main road. The train was ambushed and all hell broke loose till some agreement was
reached that allowed the inflow of tourist dollars into the region and kept the growers happy. There is precedent for such an arrangement. I don't
know who the parties were that made that agreement, just reporting a fact.
Iflyfish
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arrowhead
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Iflyfish
Cooptation and incorporation is a traditional method of dispute resolution in Mexico. If you study the last 100 years of Mexican history you will find
examples of how a group of people take a stand with the government and the government names the leaders to head committees, study the problem, head
bureaus devoted to addressing the problem etc. and pay them and their decedents to hold these government positions. I rather admire the style; though
have some problem with the substance. I think it is called Pragmatism. |
If you go back another half century, you will find that co-opting opponents was the tactic developed by Porfiro Diaz. He was essentially a dictator of
Mexico, holding office as president for over 30 years. When asked why he co-opted everyone, he said, " If you throw a dog a bone, he neither barks nor
bites."
But it backfired in the end. The system became so corrupt that it led to the peasants revolt and the Mexican Revolution of 1910. Now fast forward to
2010. Nothings changed, has it? That is why I still expect another revolution in Mexico.
No soy por ni contra apatía.
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Iflyfish
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I don't know about the Revolution part but the rest of your post is spot on.
Human beings have a finite range of behavioral and strategic options available to address issues and it seems that the more things change the more
they stay the same and we do not seem to learn from history.
Iflyfish
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josie
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I read a column online a while back that predicted that both Mexico and the USA will experience another revolution. The author predicted different
starting points but that both would end up intertwined. If I can find it I will post it as it was a very interesting read.
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JESSE
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| Quote: | Originally posted by arrowhead
| Quote: | 182 ejecuciones en sólo 2 meses
Por Frontera
3.03.2010
Se registraron 182 muertes violentas en los meses de enero y febrero, para un aumento del 68% en comparación con los mismos meses el año pasado; 2008
fue el más cruento
Tijuana, B. C. - A pesar de que algunos grandes capos del crimen organizado han sido detenidos, las ejecuciones continúan en alto número en la ciudad,
pues en los dos primeros meses de este año fueron reportadas 182 muertes violentas.
De acuerdo con las estadísticas oficiales, en enero del 2010 se contabilizaron un total de 119 asesinatos, en tanto que durante el mes de febrero
ocurrieron 63, lo que significa que aumentaron estos crímenes violentos en un 68% en comparación con el mismo periodo del 2009.
Si a estos asesinatos se suman los 123 ocurridos en el pasado mes de diciembre, significaría que en un trimestre van 305 homicidios.
De acuerdo con las estadísticas, el 2008 fue el año más sangriento registrado en esta frontera, puesto que fueron contabilizados 844 asesinatos, en
tanto que el 2009 estuvo muy por debajo, con sólo 194.
De acuerdo con la información del Gobierno del Estado, del 2005 al 2007, en promedio, fueron contabilizadas 300 muertes por año, lo que demuestra que
los últimos dos años han sido los más violentos y que los asesinatos han ido en incremento.
A principios de este año se logró la detención de los líderes del crimen organizado Teodoro García Simental, alias “El Teo”; Raydel López Uriarte,
alias “El Muletas”, y Manuel García Simental, alias “El Chiquilín”, pero a pesar de eso, los homicidios continúan sin tregua.
http://www.elvigia.net/noticia/182-ejecuciones-en-s-lo-2-mes... |
My Spanish is a little rusty Jesse. Could you translate this statement from TODAY'S NEWSPAPER for me?
pero a pesar de eso, los homicidios continúan sin tregua.
 |
Maybe you have a learning disability, so let me try to clear things up for you.
I CLEARLY SAID CRIME HAS BEEN DOWN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS NOW, NOT MONTHS, NOT MONTH, NOT YEARS, NOT TRIMESTERS, I SAID WEEKS, DO YOU GET IT?
WEEKS!!!
Hope that clears up things for you.
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JESSE
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Tijuana murders January 2010 = 118 or 4 a day
Tijuana murders February 2010 = 31 or 1 a day
Tijuana murders March 2010 = 1
It doesn't get more clear than that.
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
| Quote: | Originally posted by 805gregg
The Mexican gov, making deals with the drug cartels is good news? |
Yeah, for now- if it's all they have to work with. |
Why would it get any better later? Your suggestion is surrender.
War is hell, Woooosh. Servitude to a drug cartel is worse.
I'm appaled by your, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" solution. It's morally disgusting. |
I don't like it either Dennis, but Mexico needs time to re-group. Maybe the Meridia funds will help make it happen faster. We Americans are
revolutionary by nature (ousted the Brits) and have the right to bear arms. Mexicans were conquered by the Spanish and their gov't controls the
people- preventing them from bearing arms. Those vastly different starting points lead to the difference we are having in this debate.
Mexico needs to do what Mexico CAN do. I didn't know the depth of this appeasement philosophy until I read the other posts. It just validates my
position that this is how things work in the Mexican culture. It will change- but not until they put all the other pieces together. They need to
take care of their people next, and then come back and clean things up. JMHO.
[Edited on 3-4-2010 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
I don't like it either Dennis, but Mexico needs time to re-group. |
BS.......Mexico needs to turn up the heat. WTF, they've been on a roll. Why stop just when they seem to have it figured out.
If the government pulls back now, the whole world will know they capitulated at a time when they had the upper hand. How will they explain that?
Or, will they go back to the old days when they didn't explain anything to anybody.
No way, Woooosh. No going back to the old days. Mexico is part of the big world now.
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toneart
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Who is to know?
We are not privy to political decisions at that level, in Mexico or the U.S. The deal will be/has been(?) made and the cartel violence will lessen,
the hot spots of irritation and vendetta will play out and then it will get quieter.
There will certainly be no official announcement and no press release. The United States cannot publicly condone the deal but they would be in on it.
True, Mexico is a sovereign nation, but they can't do diddly without the United state's behind-the-scenes-approval. The State Department would feign
ignorance. The CIA can make it happen.
That's the way world politics work: Deals are made; targeted heads roll; the financial compensations are exchanged and everybody is happy except for
the inflexible, dogmatic, status quo war mongers who are co-opted.
Wha hoppen?   
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by toneart
We are not privy to political decisions at that level, in Mexico or the U.S. The deal will be/has been(?) made and the cartel violence will lessen,
the hot spots of irritation and vendetta will play out and then it will get quieter.
There will certainly be no official announcement and no press release. The United States cannot publicly condone the deal but they would be in on it.
True, Mexico is a sovereign nation, but they can't do diddly without the United state's behind-the-scenes-approval. The State Department would feign
ignorance. The CIA can make it happen.
That's the way world politics work: Deals are made; targeted heads roll; the financial compensations are exchanged and everybody is happy except for
the inflexible, dogmatic, status quo war mongers who are co-opted.
Wha hoppen? |
Yeah Dennis- what ToneArt just said.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Woooosh
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
I don't like it either Dennis, but Mexico needs time to re-group. |
BS.......Mexico needs to turn up the heat. WTF, they've been on a roll. Why stop just when they seem to have it figured out.
If the government pulls back now, the whole world will know they capitulated at a time when they had the upper hand. How will they explain that?
Or, will they go back to the old days when they didn't explain anything to anybody.
No way, Woooosh. No going back to the old days. Mexico is part of the big world now. |
Mexico is plumb out of heat. No one really expected Mexico to be warriors on an anti-drug crusade. The narcos started it with each other and the
gov't got sucked in before it was clean and ready enough to take part. It may never be ready. Many countries are far worse off than Mexico- for sure.
That's why I support making life better for the people first now- before they lose a whole generation and take a step backwards for nothing. There's
no shame in surrendering this battle to save the lives of your people.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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DENNIS
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
Mexico is plumb out of heat. No one really expected Mexico to be warriors on an anti-drug crusade. The narcos started it with each other and the
gov't got sucked in before it was clean and ready enough to take part. It may never be ready. Many countries are far worse off than Mexico- for sure.
That's why I support making life better for the people first now- before they lose a whole generation and take a step backwards for nothing. There's
no shame in surrendering this battle to save the lives of your people. |
Screw you, Woooosh. You're an effing loser quiter. You are the ***ing problem.
People like you who suck off the enemy just so they won't bother you anymore are quitters and losers. You and your type are leading yourselves to the
ovens. You don't have the fight. Gawwwd...you and people like you make me sick.
You won't survive in the long run because your comfort today is all you see and your understanding of the issue has been pre-empted by your need for
comfort at the moment.
baloney, Woooosh....you betray the effort to improve society and you betray what all the dead soldiers in the war fought for.
You betray me and.....you betray yourself. Had I thought you were a quitter, I would have never talked to you.
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Woooosh
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Ya know Dennis- I didn't even finish reading your post. The first sentence was enough. Take a deep breath and check your meds.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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DENNIS
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Too bad. It's some of my best stuff. I'll lay it on ya later.
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captainkettel
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"There's no shame in surrendering this battle to save the lives of your people."
Hey Dennis, this guy must be French!
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