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Author: Subject: I Smell a devaluation coming.
pepino
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[*] posted on 5-23-2010 at 08:20 AM


I smell a lot of opinions.:lol:
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bajalou
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[*] posted on 5-23-2010 at 11:55 AM


Just looked back a little over a year - Peso was at 14+ to the dollar for the month of march 2009.



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[*] posted on 5-23-2010 at 12:58 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by pepino
I smell a lot of opinions.:lol:


si, Pepino. opinions are like culos. everyone has one and they all stink.




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[*] posted on 5-25-2010 at 03:52 PM
Peso falls six straight days


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/may/23/peso-falls-si...

May 23, 2010

Mexico’s peso fell against the dollar for six consecutive days until rising to 12.9491 to the dollar Friday. That broke the peso’s longest losing streak since September. The six-day fall, attributed in part to the European debt crisis, erased a year-to-date gain for the peso.

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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-25/mexico-s-peso-we...

Mexico’s Peso Weakens for Second Day on European Debt Crisis

May 25, 2010, 6:03 PM EDT
By Andres R. Martinez

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s peso dropped for a second day on concern the European debt crisis may be spreading, threatening to slow the global economic recovery.

The currency dropped 0.1 percent to 13.0443 per dollar at 5 p.m. New York time, from 13.0300 yesterday. The peso earlier touched 13.3848, the weakest level since Nov. 9. The decline pared the peso’s gain this year against the U.S. dollar to 0.4 percent.

“The risk is that the European economy and the global economy will begin to slow in the second half of the year,” said Bertrand Delgado, a senior Latin America economist at RGE Monitor, a research company in New York. “Markets are way too fragile right now and any little thing is affecting them.”

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell as much as 3.4 percent today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped as much as 3.1 percent before closing higher.

The drop in crude oil, Mexico’s largest export, is also driving the peso lower, Delgado said. Oil revenue funds about a third of the government’s budget. Crude fell as much as 4.4 percent before settling at $68.75 a barrel in New York today.

Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent in April from 4.8 percent in March, the national statistics agency said. Economists had forecast the rate would fall to 4.7 percent, according to the median of 14 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Deposit Restrictions

The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent peso bond due in 2024 fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.679 percent, according to Banco Santander SA. The price of the security rose 0.11 centavo to 120.26 centavos per peso.

Traders didn’t exercise any of the $600 million in options available today, the central bank said on its website. The central bank has been auctioning the options monthly, allowing it raise its foreign reserves after the peso fell to a record low last year.

Mexico will put new restrictions on cash deposits made in U.S. dollars in an effort to curb money laundering, Mexican Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero said.

The rule changes will be announced in detail next week, Cordero told reporters today during an event in Mexico City. He emphasized that Mexico isn’t implementing exchange controls.

The measures aim to crack down on the finances of drug traffickers and organized crime in Mexico. The U.S. Justice Department estimates $17.2 billion of cocaine, marijuana and other drugs cross the border from Mexico into the U.S. annually. More than 22,000 people have been killed in related violence since President Felipe Calderon took office in 2006.




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DavidE
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[*] posted on 5-27-2010 at 07:58 PM


There are just too many variables for this poor humble MBA to see a clear path through the fog. One issue is USA institutional investors who can dump a billion or three into Mexican instruments with the touch of a key. They are looking for yield and Mexico has it and the USA doesn't. Mexican finance ministers learned after the christmas surprise that feeding the wolves just a few dozens of millions of dollars a day can have a rather dramatic strengthing effect -if there is no external pressure on the peso-

Guillermo Ortiz was the first to discover this and the practice is now instiutionalized to the point of automation. If pressure is heavy trading stops and then resumes when things calm down. To wit, the peso can devalue by a half point in a day under heavy trading then revalue over the next several days with injection of US Dollars.
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[*] posted on 5-28-2010 at 06:57 AM


Wow, too cool... just like the United States House and Senate... great thread... thanks to all



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