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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
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Mood: Skeptical
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It is way too early in the season for it to be of any consequence in BCS. It could make for some rough fishing though.
Mid August to mid Sept. is the time for sweating those bad boys.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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Whatever that thing is down there, it has really organized itself although Storm Pulse has it heading NW and shouldn't be too much of a threat. Hope
you folks get a little rain out of it. That would be nice.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Dennis
Turn on the forecast models on Stormpulse....very interesting
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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WOW....Does anybody have any idea what this thing's gonna do? I guess it has a mind of it's own.
Thanks, Judy. I'll keep trying to figure them out.
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 19920
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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discussion from NWS NHC:
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 081442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55
KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
A 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED
EYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.
THIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT
OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES
OVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS
ADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
DUE TO THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.
[Edited on 6-8-2011 by mtgoat666]
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Bajatripper
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3151
Registered: 3-20-2010
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yes, I am most definitely watching from afar for the safety of my little cabana las dunas south of Los Frailles...just had shutter repair done so it
won't slam against the house in high winds. Here we go...hurricane season........ be safe down there!!!! |
Just out of curiousity, are you speaking of those four or five houses up on the dunes? If so, I've wondered how that project was built and would be
interested in any details you might have. Perhaps you could U2U me?
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O.G.
Nomad
Posts: 109
Registered: 5-7-2010
Location: Ensenada
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Mood: waiting for the green flash
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Passageweather.com shows a forcasted track for Adrian which dies out near La Paz next week. Of course, any predictions as to the track of any
hurricane should be taken with a grain of salt (whatever that means).
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
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Cowabunga surf riders!
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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stanburn
Nomad
Posts: 145
Registered: 10-4-2007
Location: Santiago, Colima, MX
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This morning is bright and shiny in Manzanillo and the surf is normal.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Adrian
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Adrian
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Adrian
Last one
[Edited on 6-9-2011 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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BillP
Nomad
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Registered: 1-28-2010
Location: Lake Havasu City, AZ
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I wish this would have pushed into the SOC thus pushing some moisture up into AZ, the folks in the fire area could use some early summer monsoons,
lots of beautiful country going up in flames.
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BFS
Senior Nomad
Posts: 520
Registered: 9-28-2006
Location: Todos Santos
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Listo
I'm on a bluff looking straight towards Adrian, light breeze, no clouds, 82 degree water, boards at my side, ready...
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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living the dream.
i'll be out there on recon. lotta work coming up starting monday so i figger it's one last blast with a couple amigos.....
not expecting much, but still, just being there......
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